USA, Iran & Pakistan

Potential Iran-U.S. Conflict and Pakistan's Role

 Iran and Pakistan Relations

Iran was the first country to recognise Pakistan after the partition of India, and Pakistan was the first country to recognise the government established after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Before this revolution, both Iran and Pakistan were aligned with the Western bloc. In 1970, the Shah of Iran even supported Pakistan in its campaign against insurgents in Baluchistan. However, post-revolution, Iran’s stance shifted to an anti-Western position, while Pakistan remained a part of the Western bloc. During the Soviet-Afghan War, both Iran and Pakistan opposed the Soviet Union, but they supported different factions: Iran backed the “Northern Alliance” (predominantly Shia Hazara), while Pakistan supported the Mujahideen.

The 900-kilometer border between Pakistan and Iran, known as the Goldsmith Line, was demarcated in 1871 by Goldsmith. Baloch tribes live on both sides of this border and often do not recognize the official boundary, leading to cross-border insurgent activities in both countries. On the Iranian side, a Sunni Baloch minority resides, which often expresses dissatisfaction with the central government, accusing it of sectarian discrimination. The U.S. counter-terrorism agency identifies Jaish al-Adl, a group advocating for Baloch rights, as an active voice for this community.

Despite occasional tensions due to such insurgent activities, overall relations between Pakistan and Iran remain balanced. 

International Perspective of Iran Pakistan Ties

From a geopolitical perspective, Iran has historically held closer ties with India compared to Pakistan. However, with China’s increasing role in the region and India’s alignment with the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s relationship with India has somewhat cooled. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Iran share a similar stance on Israel and Palestine, reducing any ideological or geographical friction between them.

Pakistan Dependency on West

Yet, a critical question arises: In a potential conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, what stance would Pakistan adopt? Could Pakistan remain neutral? Would it be able to refuse logistical and marine support to the U.S., given its deeply entrenched interests with the Western bloc?

Such questions reflect the complex dynamics at play, considering Pakistan's dependency on the West, which often borders on subservience.

 

Saudi Arabia and the Yemen Situation

Iran continues to supply advanced weaponry to Houthi rebels in Yemen. In response, Saudi Arabia has engaged the U.S., planning both significant financial support — a commitment reportedly reaching $100 billion — and aligning strategically with Israel. Recently, following a drone attack on Saudi oil wells and attacks on four tankers in the Gulf, the U.S. announced plans to supply Saudi Arabia with $8 billion in advanced weaponry.

The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia tribe, make up approximately 40-45% of Yemen’s population, with an estimated 13 million members. Zaydi Shia beliefs share few differences with Sunni doctrine, unlike Iran's Twelver Shia majority. While Iranian and Houthi ideologies have not historically aligned, both parties share anti-Israel sentiment, which fosters mutual support. Notably, Zaydi tribes ruled parts of Yemen for decades and maintained amicable relations with Saudi Arabia until the early 1990s. At that time, the Houthi’s religious revolution, "Ansar Allah," marked a turning point as they armed against their own Zaydi-led government. This revolution initiated Yemen’s decline into instability and foreign intervention, with North Korea and Al-Qaeda further complicating matters. In 2014, rebels seized the capital, and the conflict has persisted, entrenched in a battle for dominance.

U.S. Influence in the Middle East

The United States, aiming for dominance in the oil-rich Middle East, has used the Yemen conflict to bring Arab nations under its influence. With a clear strategy to counter Iran, the U.S. seeks to strengthen its position in the Gulf, likely aiming to halt Iran’s oil exports completely.

Trump and Iran

As the world’s superpower with a century of wartime experience, the U.S. prioritizes war within its policies. Victory, even at high costs, often masks the ethical weight of warfare. So far, President Trump has been unable to make a notable impact in this realm; his only venture in Syria remains inconclusive, and with elections looming, he needs a strong slogan. From the outset, Trump opposed Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran. Iran’s regional involvement and influence in Yemen have given Trump the rationale he seeks for intervention. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s complicated relationship with Iran and Iran's closeness to India push Pakistan to align with Saudi Arabia. This alignment is further driven by Pakistan’s current economic challenges and recent aid from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which add significant constraints.

Iran’s Revolution and Today’s Landscape

Until the 1979 revolution, Iran was a close ally of both Israel and the U.S. In fact, it was only the second Muslim-majority country to recognize Israel, maintaining strong diplomatic ties since 1948. Israel viewed Iran as an ally against Arab states. Iran was also home to a significant Jewish community, which today numbers around 20,000. However, the 1979 revolution transformed Iran into a staunchly anti-U.S., Shia religious state. The revolution, although initially aimed at opposing the U.S., was overtaken by Shia fundamentalists, leading Iran into another challenging era. Anti-American sentiment became deeply ingrained, fueling an Iranian public ready to confront the U.S. Sensing a potential rival, Sunni-dominated states vehemently opposed Iran, with Iraq even initiating a prolonged eight-year war with substantial global backing. Although the aim was to crush Iran’s Shia regime, Iran’s resilience became a point of national pride.

In 1982, as Israel moved troops into Lebanon amidst civil unrest, Iran sent the Revolutionary Guard to support local Shia militias. Hezbollah, born from this support, has since emerged as a direct Iranian proxy in Lebanon. In 2006, Israel fought a month-long war against Hezbollah but failed to dismantle the well-armed militia. Iran’s regional activities remain robust — supporting Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad’s government in Syria, and the Shia leadership in Iraq — positioning Saudi Arabia and Israel as mutual adversaries. The United States remains their shared protector.

Iran's Strategic Weapon: The Strait of Hormuz 

The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s most potent tool of leverage. 

It is the world's most vital oil choke point, with nearly 25% of global oil passing through it, destined for countries like China, Japan, India, Pakistan, and Korea. 

 At its narrowest, the Strait is only 39 kilometres wide, making it relatively easy for Iran to block. 

Such a blockade could halt half the world's oil supply and send prices skyrocketing, a situation that major powers are keen to avoid.

China and Russia’s Perspective

Russia, a long-standing ally of Iran, especially after recent events in Syria, will likely oppose giving the U.S. a free hand against Iran. Iran’s trade in Russian rubles highlights a robust mutual trust. On the other hand, China, an emerging economic power in the region, is deeply concerned about instability in the Arabian Sea. China asserts that the U.S. has no right to dictate its oil trade. Additionally, opposition from Turkey and Qatar may emerge, while Europe has thus far deemed the conflict unnecessary, knowing it could destabilize global markets.

The Real Responsibility for Middle Eastern Instability

A deeper examination suggests Iran’s policies are strengthening U.S. influence. Countries that once distanced themselves from Israel are now aligning with it due to Iran’s missteps.

Muslim nations, time and again, fall prey to self-inflicted strife, idolising figures like Saddam Hussein, who inflicted irreversible harm on the Muslim world, or launching zealot-driven revolutions like Khomeini's. Muslims must adopt a pragmatic approach, prioritising rationality, knowledge, and technology over mere passion.