The end of Bashar al-Assad and the future of Syria

Bashar al-Assad: From an Eye Doctor in London to Syria's Controversial Leader

Bashar al-Assad's journey from a medical professional to an authoritarian leader accused of war crimes is marked by significant events and dramatic turns. Here's a timeline of key moments in his life and presidency:

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Early Life and Background (1965–1994)

• 1965: Born to Hafez al-Assad and Anisa Makhlouf, Bashar grew up in a politically tumultuous Syria under Arab nationalist Ba'athist rule.
• 1992: After studying medicine in Damascus, he moved to London for specialization in ophthalmology.
• 1994: Bashar’s elder brother, Basil, the heir apparent, died in a car accident. This tragedy redirected Bashar's path towards politics and leadership.

  

  Assad with his British-born wife Asma and their children

  
  

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Rise to Power (1994–2000)

• 1994: Returned to Syria to begin military training and prepare for leadership under his father's guidance.
• 2000: After Hafez al-Assad’s death, Bashar assumed Syria's presidency at 34, following constitutional amendments lowering the minimum age for the role.

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Early Presidency: Hopes and Setbacks (2000–2010)

• Initially, Bashar promoted transparency, modernisation, and political reforms, sparking a brief period of optimism known as the "Damascus Spring."
• 2001: Crackdown on dissent marked the end of this hopeful period, with arrests and suppression of opposition.
• Introduced limited economic reforms benefiting elites, notably his cousin Rami Makhlouf.
• 2003: Relations with the West soured after Syria opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, facing accusations of aiding insurgents.
• 2005: International pressure intensified after Lebanon's former PM Rafik Hariri was assassinated, leading to Syrian troops' withdrawal from Lebanon.

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Civil War and International Isolation (2011–2020)

• 2011: Inspired by Arab Spring protests, demonstrations in Syria escalated into a full-scale civil war.
• Bashar’s government faced accusations of severe repression, war crimes, and chemical attacks.
• Opposition movements fragmented, with extremist groups like ISIS seizing control of parts of Syria.
• 2015: Russia’s military intervention helped Assad regain key territories, solidifying his position but prolonging the conflict.

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Recent Years: Fragile Stability and Challenges (2020–Present)

• 2023: Syria rejoined the Arab League, signaling regional reintegration despite ongoing economic struggles.
• October 2023: Amidst regional conflicts, opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham advanced, capturing major cities like Aleppo and Homs, and claimed to seize Damascus.
• Reports suggested Assad fled Damascus, marking a critical point in his presidency.

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How Did Bashar al-Assad Flee Syria?

With Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham taking control of key cities, questions are arising about Bashar al-Assad’s future and whether his regime has finally come to an end. The last time Assad was seen in public was a week ago during a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, where he reiterated his commitment to “crushing” the rebels advancing swiftly across various parts of Syria.

In the early hours of Sunday, as fighters entered Damascus unopposed, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies declared, “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria.” According to the FlightRadar24 website, there were no scheduled flights leaving Damascus during this time. However, at 12:56 a.m., a Cham Wings Airlines Airbus A320 departed for Sharjah in the UAE.

FlightRadar24 data showed the plane initially heading east of Damascus before turning northwest toward Syria’s Mediterranean coast, a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite community and home to Russian military bases. The aircraft’s transponder signal was lost at 4:39 a.m. while flying 13 kilometers west of Homs at an altitude of 1,625 feet.

In a post on social media platform X, FlightRadar24 stated that the aircraft’s outdated transponder might have caused some data loss. It added that the region experienced GPS jamming, which could also explain the missing data, and noted the absence of any known airports nearby.

Radar showed a plane heading towards the Mediterranean Sea from Damascus

Bashar al-Assad's escape from Syria on December 8, 2024, marks a pivotal moment in the country's ongoing conflict. As rebel forces advanced towards Damascus, Assad fled with his family on a Syrian Air flight that took off around 2 AM. The plane initially appeared to head towards the coast but then changed course and disappeared from radar, likely to avoid detection.

Russian officials played a crucial role in facilitating his escape, ensuring that he was transported securely out of the country. Following his departure, celebrations erupted among opposition groups, signaling a significant victory over Assad's regime.

Once in Russia, Assad and his family were granted asylum, reflecting Russia's long-standing support for him. His escape has led to a shift in power dynamics within Syria, which is now under a transitional administration backed by rebel factions. This event raises questions about the future governance of Syria and the ongoing implications of the conflict.

Syria’s Role in the Arab World: The Rise, Fall, and Beyond

Henry Kissinger once remarked, "The Arabs can't make war without Egypt and can't make peace without Syria." This sentiment highlights Syria's critical role in shaping the political and strategic dynamics of the Arab world. Once a symbol of resistance against Western dominance and Israeli influence, Syria now finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. With the end of Alawite rule after more than five decades, the region faces a complex interplay of power shifts, alliances, and uncertainties.

Syria: The Guardian of Arab Resistance

Damascus, often referred to as the world’s oldest continuously inhabited capital, has historically played a central role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. After Egypt’s withdrawal from the confrontation front following the 1971 Arab-Israeli War, Syria, under Hafez al-Assad, emerged as Israel’s most formidable Arab opponent. Kissinger, despite ideological differences, reportedly admired Assad's strategic acumen.

For decades, Syria was a bastion of defiance against U.S. hegemony and Israeli expansionism. Yet, the brutal nature of the Alawite regime, characterized by oppression and minority rule over a Sunni majority, sowed seeds of domestic unrest that ultimately eroded its stability.

A Nation at a Crossroads: Freedom or Decline?

The abrupt end of Alawite dominance presents a dual narrative. For some, it signifies the liberation of Syria from an oppressive regime; for others, it marks the decline of a nation once emblematic of Arab dignity.

Syria's current state reflects a complex paradox. On one hand, its fall from grace as a regional power weakens the broader Arab resistance against foreign intervention. On the other, the dissolution of autocratic rule offers a glimmer of hope for democratic governance, albeit fraught with challenges.

Winners and Losers in the New Geopolitical Order

The consequences of Syria’s transformation are far-reaching, with implications for multiple stakeholders:

• United States and Israel: The fall of the Assad regime is a significant geopolitical victory for both nations, as it dismantles a key axis of resistance. For Israel, this creates an opportunity to shift from perpetual conflict to strategic peacebuilding.

• Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as a major beneficiary. With increasing influence in northern Syria and ties to groups like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey is poised to shape Syria’s future. This success also facilitates the repatriation of Syrian refugees, a critical domestic goal for Erdoğan.

• Iran and Hezbollah: The Assad regime’s collapse is a severe blow to Iran’s regional ambitions and Hezbollah’s operational leverage in Lebanon. This weakens their collective ability to challenge U.S. and Israeli interests.

• Palestine: Perhaps the greatest casualty, the Palestinian cause faces increased isolation as key allies, such as Syria and Iran, falter.

How Do Iran and Israel View the Situation?

This marks the end of 50 years of Assad family rule, a shift that will alter the region’s power dynamics. Iran, which wielded significant influence through its alliance with Assad, has suffered a major setback. Under Assad, Syria served as a vital link between Iran and Hezbollah, facilitating the transfer of arms and ammunition.

With Hezbollah weakened after a year of conflict with Israel, its future remains uncertain. Similarly, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have faced repeated airstrikes. Along with other groups like militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, these factions formed Iran’s “axis of resistance.” This network now faces severe disruption.

Israel is likely to welcome this development, viewing Iran as a threat. Many believe that Turkey’s involvement was crucial in these events. While Turkey supports Syrian rebels, it has denied backing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had previously urged Assad to pursue a diplomatic solution to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, a politically sensitive issue in Turkey where their number has reached three million. Assad, however, refused.

A Broader Geopolitical Domino Effect

The U.S. success in Syria reflects a larger strategy aimed at weakening adversaries like Russia and Iran. Caught in the quagmire of the Ukraine war, Russia’s inability to support Assad underscores its diminished global influence. The removal of Russian military bases in Syria could redirect Moscow’s focus toward strengthening its position in Eastern Europe.

China, too, cannot ignore the ripple effects. As America solidifies its influence in the Middle East, Beijing faces a strategic dilemma: whether to challenge U.S. dominance or adapt to a shifting global order.

Who Are Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former leader of the so-called Islamic State, played a role in its creation. Initially considered Assad’s most dangerous adversary, the group severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s leadership. HTS then merged with other factions to form a coalition.

While no longer aligned with al-Qaeda, HTS shifted its focus from establishing a global caliphate to creating a fundamentalist regime within Syria. Despite efforts to portray itself as a national force with diplomatic and conciliatory rhetoric, many remain skeptical of HTS’s intentions.

 

What Lies Ahead?

As rebels entered Damascus, Assad’s forces either abandoned their posts or joined the insurgents. In a televised announcement, the group proclaimed Assad’s ousting and declared, “Long live a free and independent Syria for all its people.” While many celebrate Assad’s departure, uncertainty looms over what follows.

HTS, with its roots in al-Qaeda and a history of violence, has attempted to rebrand itself. Yet, doubts persist about its governance after toppling Assad. This power vacuum in Syria could lead to further chaos and violence.

Lessons for the Muslim World

A united and conscious populace wields more power than any military: Scottish philosopher David Hume.

Syria’s political upheaval offers a stark reminder of a timeless truth: regimes that lose the support of their people are destined to fall. For countries like Pakistan, this lesson is especially relevant as they navigate their own internal challenges.

The downfall of the Asad dynasty serves as a compelling lesson: the true bedrock of a nation's stability lies in the contentment of its people. Overreliance on external support—be it military, financial, or political—can never substitute for the trust and acceptance that citizens place in their rulers. Stability is not granted by foreign alliances but is earned through the confidence and satisfaction of those governed.

Uncertain Future

The fall of the Alawite regime in Syria is both an end and a beginning. It signifies the closure of a chapter defined by autocratic rule and the potential for a new era of governance, albeit one fraught with uncertainties. For the broader Arab world, Syria’s trajectory underscores the delicate balance between resistance and survival in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

As the dust settles, one question remains: can Syria rise again as a beacon of dignity and resistance, or will it succumb to the tides of external influence and internal strife?

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Is India Still Secular? A Reflection on Changing Ideals

The Question of India's Secular Identity

India, once celebrated as a secular beacon in the diverse and fragmented subcontinent, now stands at a critical juncture. The ideals championed by visionaries like Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru—of unity, pluralism, and secular governance—appear increasingly tenuous. Under the strains of political populism, religious nationalism, and socio-cultural shifts, the foundational question resurfaces: Was India ever truly secular, or was this merely an aspirational ideal? More importantly, is India today edging closer to the divisive principles of the two-nation theory it once firmly rejected?

 

This article delves into the roots of Indian secularism, its current challenges, and the implications for the nation’s pluralistic ethos.

 

 The Foundations of Indian Secularism

 Gandhi’s Vision: Unity Through Nonviolence

Mahatma Gandhi envisioned secularism not as the negation of religion but as the harmonious coexistence of all faiths. For Gandhi, India’s strength lay in its diversity—its Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and Christians living as one. His philosophy of Ahimsa (nonviolence) was not merely a political tool but a moral framework designed to bridge interfaith divides, fostering mutual respect and collective harmony.

 

 Nehru’s Pragmatism: Secularism as a Shield Against Fragmentation

Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister, viewed secularism as indispensable to preserving national unity, particularly after the trauma of Partition. For him, secular governance was a safeguard against the divisive potential of religion in politics. Nehru institutionalized these ideals, culminating in the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1976, which formally declared India a secular state. Yet, this vision began to falter after his death, as sectarian politics gained ground, exposing the fragility of the ideal in a deeply religious society.

 

 The Erosion of Secularism: A Nation Divided

 The Rise of Religious Nationalism

The advent of Hindutva—a vision of India rooted in Hindu cultural supremacy—has significantly accelerated the erosion of India’s secular fabric. Spearheaded by organizations like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and promoted by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), this ideology marginalizes minorities, particularly Muslims, while rewriting India’s cultural and historical narratives. Renaming cities and landmarks with Islamic origins, such as changing Allahabad to Prayagraj, exemplifies this effort. These symbolic acts aim to erase the contributions of Muslims to India’s history, casting them as outsiders in the very nation they helped shape.

 

 The Social Isolation of Muslims

In regions like Uttar Pradesh, the syncretic culture of Ganga-Jamuni Tehzeeb—a blend of Hindu and Muslim traditions—is under siege. Muslims increasingly face social exclusion, with narratives of "othering" infiltrating everyday life. Traditions where Muslims once actively participated, such as crafting effigies for Hindu festivals or supporting pilgrimages like the Kumbh Mela, have seen calls for their exclusion.

 

Rewriting History: The Erasure of Muslim Contributions

The cultural marginalization of Muslims extends to linguistic and symbolic domains. Persian-derived terms are being replaced with Sanskritized alternatives, a calculated move to diminish India’s Islamic heritage. Such efforts echo the concerns of scholars like Amrita Basu, who argue that Hindutva’s agenda has evolved from militant activism to cultural domination, reshaping India’s collective memory.

 

The Politics of Polarization: From Congress to BJP

The communal divide in India predates the BJP’s rise. The 1984 anti-Sikh riots under Congress exposed the party’s failure to uphold secular principles, paving the way for the BJP’s Hindutva-driven politics. Under BJP rule, policies like the abrogation of Article 370, the construction of the Ram Temple, and the push for a Uniform Civil Code have institutionalized the shift away from secularism. These measures signal a deliberate reorientation of India’s identity, aligning it more closely with majoritarian ideals.

 

 Is India Embracing the Two-Nation Theory?

Ironically, the trajectory of modern Indian politics seems to lend credence to the two-nation theory—a philosophy that argued Hindus and Muslims could not coexist within a single nation. While Muhammad Ali Jinnah was once criticized for his divisive vision, today’s India appears to echo the same principles, fostering exclusion and alienation. By marginalising minorities and promoting religious hegemony, India risks further fracturing its social fabric. Whether this is a temporary phase or an irreversible shift remains a question of profound significance.

 

A Secular Future or a Religious State?

India’s transition from a secular ideal to a polarised reality presents a stark challenge to its pluralistic heritage. While the resurgence of religious nationalism threatens to redefine the nation’s identity, history offers a glimmer of hope. India has always thrived on its diversity, and reclaiming its secular ethos requires a collective effort to reject divisive narratives and uphold constitutional principles. The future of India’s secular identity depends on whether its leaders and citizens can rise above sectarianism and reaffirm the pluralism that has long been its hallmark. Whether this period of polarisation is a passing tremor or a seismic shift will ultimately define the nation's legacy.

The concept of an Islamic state evolves in response to situational dynamics and the complexities of power politics

The Evolution and Decline of Islamic States: Lessons from History

The evolution of states from ancient times to the Islamic era reveals a complex interplay of power, governance, and culture. From the early Bronze Age city-states to the vast empires of the Islamic caliphates, the journey of statecraft is a testament to the dynamic forces of conquest, integration, and decline.

The Formation of Early States

The institution of the state emerged as a mechanism to organize societies. Early states featured a ruling class with power and privilege, often supported by the taxes of the common people. Two types of states evolved during these times:

1.    Territorial States: These remained confined to their geographical boundaries, developing unique cultures and civilizations.

2.    Expansionist States: Powered by military prowess and natural resources, these states expanded through conquests, often plundering wealth and enslaving populations.

Alongside these were nomadic tribes, organized under their own customs. These groups frequently clashed with established states, either destroying them or assimilating into their civilizations.

The Islamic State and Its Transformations

Islamic states brought a new dimension to governance, blending religious identity with political authority. The Umayyad Caliphate established an Arab-centric rule, as Ibn Khaldun described through the concept of ‘Asabiyyah (group solidarity). Despite the conversion of many Persians to Islam, social hierarchies persisted, leaving non-Arabs with limited status.

The Abbasid revolution, primarily led by Persian Muslims, disrupted this dynamic. The Abbasid Caliphate introduced a more inclusive structure, granting equality to Arabs and Persians. The Persians, with their Sassanian heritage, significantly influenced Abbasid administration, introducing bureaucratic practices and court rituals reminiscent of the Sassanid Empire.

Cultural Flourishing Under the Abbasids

Under the Abbasids, especially after the capital moved to Baghdad, a vibrant cultural and intellectual era unfolded. Persian traditions like Nowruz, music, poetry, and storytelling flourished. The Abbasid court became a hub for poets, historians, and philosophers. Families like the Barmakids, who had Buddhist roots but later converted to Islam, played a pivotal role in embedding Persian culture into the Islamic framework.

However, the luxurious lifestyle of the ruling class came at a cost. Heavy taxation on the populace funded opulent courts, but the economic sustainability of the empire faltered. States cannot thrive on plunder or unearned wealth indefinitely. When rulers lose their moral and ethical compass, their authority weakens, leading to political fragmentation.

The Rise of Military Dominance

As internal conflicts destabilised the Abbasids, Central Asian Turkic slaves (Mamluks) were brought in as military elites. Initially loyal to the caliph, these groups eventually amassed enough power to dominate state institutions, appoint caliphs, and establish their own dynasties. The decentralization of power was evident by the 9th century, as various regions like Persia, Egypt, and Andalusia splintered into independent states.

The Decline of the Caliphate

By the mid-13th century, the once-mighty Abbasid Caliphate crumbled. The Mongol invasion under Hulagu Khan in 1258 marked the end of Baghdad’s dominance. The Islamic world fractured into smaller dynasties and sultanates, many of which fell under European colonial rule in later centuries.

Lessons for Modern States

The history of Islamic states offers critical insights into governance:

1.    Economic Independence: Sustainable states require robust internal economies rather than reliance on conquest or external wealth.

2.    Equitable Governance: Exclusionary policies lead to rebellion and division. Inclusive governance fosters unity and stability.

3.    Cultural Integration: Embracing diverse cultural contributions can enrich societies but requires careful balance to avoid alienation.

4.    Ethical Leadership: Corruption and moral decay among leaders erode trust and weaken the foundations of the state.

Today, many Islamic states face challenges rooted in these historical patterns. Poverty, lack of democratic rights, and external interference hinder their progress. Understanding and addressing these lessons can help modern states navigate a path toward stability, equity, and prosperity.

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This narrative connects historical events to present-day challenges, offering a comprehensive perspective for readers seeking to understand the intricate history of Islamic states.

 

Technology vs Muslim Scholars

Religious Scholars and Modern Technology: 

A Tale of Resistance and Adaptation 

Throughout history, religious scholars in many Muslim societies have exhibited resistance to technological advancements. This pattern of initial rejection followed by eventual adoption has left lasting impacts on the cultural, technological, and economic development of these societies. The historical reluctance to embrace innovation reveals both the challenges of reconciling tradition with progress and the consequences of delayed adaptation.

 

The Clock That Marked Progress but Was Smashed as Heresy 

When the mechanical clock first arrived in Ottoman Turkey in late 1570, it was dismissed as a heretical invention. A crown prince even went so far as to publicly smash it in a square, branding it a symbol of unwelcome innovation. However, the first clock tower in Turkey was erected in 1797 in Safranbolu.

Yet today, watches and clocks are ubiquitous, including among religious scholars who once deemed them unacceptable. 

 

The Camera and the “Sin” of Images 

The invention of the camera and the subsequent development 1816-1826 of photography faced staunch opposition from clerics, who labeled it un-Islamic, later in 1924, when the Turkish Republic officially adopted secularism, images accepted.

In parts of the Indian subcontinent, taking photographs was considered sinful well into the 20th century.

However, fast forward to the present, and the same religious leaders who opposed photography now frequently appear on camera, their sermons and discussions broadcasted across television and digital platforms.

 

The Case of Coffee: A “Forbidden” Brew 

Even something as mundane as coffee did not escape controversy. When coffee arrived in the Ottoman Empire around 1620, riots broke out, fueled by the misconception that it was a product of Western infidels. Ironically, coffee’s origins trace back to Muslim regions in Africa, underscoring the resistance rooted in ignorance rather than substance.

 

Technological Resistance: The Printing Press and Beyond 

Perhaps one of the most detrimental examples of technological rejection was the printing press. For over 500 years, Muslim societies barred its use, fearing it would erode the art of calligraphy and disrupt the livelihoods of scribes. The Mughal Emperor Akbar reportedly dismissed the printing press, arguing it would lead to unemployment among scribes. Such short-sighted decisions left Muslim societies lagging behind in education and innovation for centuries. 

In contrast, European societies embraced the printing press, sparking a revolution in knowledge dissemination and literacy.

Loudspeakers and the Evolution of Religious Practice 

The arrival of loudspeakers in South Asia was similarly contentious. Initially deemed haram (forbidden) by prominent scholars like Maulana Ashraf Thanvi, loudspeakers were eventually embraced and are now indispensable in mosques. Today, however, their misuse—such as overlapping broadcasts from multiple mosques—raises questions about thoughtful integration rather than outright rejection. 

 

Lessons from the East: Adopting Technology Without Losing Identity 

While religious scholars in Muslim societies resisted technological advancements, countries like Japan and China took a different approach. They embraced modern innovations while safeguarding their cultural and religious traditions. By doing so, they positioned themselves as exporters of technology, leading global industries in manufacturing, robotics, and artificial intelligence. 

This adaptability contrasts sharply with the stagnation observed in many Muslim-majority countries, where fear of cultural erosion or perceived religious incompatibility often delayed progress. As a result, these nations became dependent on technological imports, limiting their ability to compete globally.

 

The Cost of Resistance 

The opposition of religious scholars to technology often stems from a fear of change disrupting societal norms. However, the repercussions of such resistance are borne by society at large. When societies fail to adopt and integrate new technologies promptly, they risk falling behind, not just technologically but economically and politically. 

Religious scholars eventually adopt the very technologies they once opposed, evident in the widespread use of platforms like YouTube by many prominent clerics. Yet, the initial resistance often results in lost opportunities for advancement and growth.

 

A Path Forward: Bridging Tradition and Modernity 

The resistance to technology in Muslim societies highlights a broader challenge: finding a balance between preserving religious and cultural identity while embracing progress. Religious scholars hold significant influence and could play a constructive role by guiding their communities toward thoughtful adoption of innovations. 

 

Rather than viewing technology as a threat, it can be framed as a tool for amplifying positive values, improving education, and fostering economic development. Learning from other societies that have successfully navigated this balance can offer valuable lessons for the future. 

 

The history of technological resistance in Muslim societies serves as a cautionary tale of missed opportunities and delayed progress. To thrive in an increasingly interconnected and competitive world, these societies must move beyond the reflexive rejection of change and instead embrace innovation as a means of empowerment. Only then can they shed the legacy of technological dependency and reclaim a place of leadership in global progress.

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ISLAM AND PHOTOGRAPHY

Iran vs Israel

 

Why Are Iran and Israel Enemies?

Iran and Israel, once allies, have become fierce adversaries, particularly since Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian consulates in Syria and Iran’s counterattacks with drones and missiles exemplify this ongoing rivalry, which has intensified over recent decades. Iran openly expresses its desire to erase Israel from the map, while Israel considers Iran its greatest adversary.

A Historical Shift

Before Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, Israel and Iran shared a cooperative alliance. Iran was one of the first nations to recognize Israel in 1948, viewing Israel as a counterbalance against Arab nations. In exchange for oil, Israel provided Iran with technical expertise, training Iranian agricultural specialists and supporting its armed forces.

Changing Relations After 1979

The 1979 revolution marked a turning point, as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his religious regime dissolved previous treaties with Israel. Iran began vocally opposing Israel’s control over Palestinian territories, with its increasingly severe rhetoric aimed at gaining support from regional Arab populations and expanding its own influence.

When Israel intervened in Lebanon’s civil conflict in 1982, Khomeini sent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to Beirut to back local Shia militias. The Hezbollah militia, which grew from this support, is now a key Iranian proxy in Lebanon.

Present-Day Relations

Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continues the anti-Israel stance, frequently questioning the Holocaust’s narrative and opposing any form of compromise with Israel.

• Is the war between Iran and Israel a war of religion and ideology or is it a struggle for dominance in the region?

The complex relationship between Iran and Israel encompasses a blend of religious, ideological, and geopolitical factors, though many analysts view the conflict as fundamentally rooted in a struggle for regional dominance with religion as a powerful but secondary component.

1. Ideological and Religious Dimensions

• Religious Rhetoric: The animosity includes religious undertones, particularly from Iran's leadership, which often frames Israel as an “illegitimate Zionist entity.” This aligns with Iran's role as a Shia Muslim theocracy, positioning itself against Israel, which it portrays as a Western-backed, secular state in the heart of the Islamic Middle East​.
• Ideological Rivalry: Iran’s revolutionary ideology, which opposes Western influence and promotes a model of Islamic governance, is fundamentally at odds with Israel's democratic system and its alliances with the West, particularly the United States​.

2. Geopolitical and Strategic Motivations

• Regional Dominance: Both nations are vying for influence in the Middle East. Iran has expanded its presence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen through proxy groups like Hezbollah, which is a key part of its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel. Israel, in turn, seeks to curb Iranian influence by countering these proxies and limiting Iran’s reach, particularly near its own borders​.
• Nuclear Ambitions: Iran’s nuclear program adds another layer, as Israel perceives a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat. Israel’s preventive measures against this—such as alleged cyber attacks and airstrikes on Iranian assets—reflect a strategic attempt to maintain military superiority in the region​.

3. National Security and Existential Threats

• Mutual Perception as a Threat: Both states view each other as significant threats to their national security. Iran views Israel’s alliance with Western powers, particularly the United States, as a containment strategy aimed at Iran’s isolation. Conversely, Israel sees Iran's support for anti-Israel groups and its military expansion as efforts to encircle and threaten Israel​.

While religion and ideology amplify the tension, the core of the Iran-Israel conflict lies in regional dominance and security concerns. Iran’s support for armed groups in opposition to Israel and its nuclear ambitions challenge Israel’s position, while Israel actively works to counterbalance Iran’s influence. Thus, though religious rhetoric is evident, this rivalry is driven largely by geopolitical strategies and power struggles.

 

Debates Within Iran

Not all Iranians support the government’s antagonistic approach toward Israel. Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, suggested in a 2021 interview that Iran reconsider its relationship with Israel, highlighting that alliances with Russia and China overlook the treatment of Muslims in Chechnya and Xinjiang.

There are still more than 20,000 Jewish residents living in Iran

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political science professor at Tehran University, criticized Iran’s policy on Israel, stating it isolates the country on the international stage.

• Do the Iranian people want war or is this a strategy of the ruling Iranian political party to hold on to power?

The general sentiment among the Iranian people tends to be against war, particularly with Israel or the West. Many Iranians prioritize economic stability, improved living standards, and greater social freedoms, rather than conflict. Polls and studies, while sometimes limited in scope due to restrictions within Iran, indicate that a significant portion of the population seeks reform and wishes for normalized relations with other nations, including the West and neighboring countries, rather than confrontational policies​.

Strategy of the Iranian Political Leadership

Iran’s ruling authorities, particularly hardline factions within the government, use anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric strategically. This approach serves multiple purposes:

• Maintaining Unity and Control: By emphasizing external threats, Iranian leaders are able to promote a narrative of national solidarity against foreign "enemies," which can help divert attention from domestic issues such as inflation, unemployment, and political repression.
• Legitimizing Their Rule: Iran’s Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps often portray themselves as protectors of Islamic and Iranian values against Western influence, justifying their power and strict policies as necessary for national security.

Public Sentiment vs. Government Stance

The Iranian public's views frequently contrast with those of their government. For example, during major protests, such as those in 2009 (the Green Movement) and 2019 (economic protests), many Iranians voiced dissatisfaction with their government’s foreign policies, especially its involvement in regional conflicts like those in Syria and Yemen. Economic hardships stemming from sanctions and the government’s military expenditures abroad have also fueled domestic discontent​.

The Iranian government’s stance on regional conflicts and its anti-Israel rhetoric are more likely strategies to consolidate internal control and assert regional influence. Meanwhile, the Iranian populace generally favors peace and economic reform over war. This divide highlights the complexity of Iran's internal politics, where the government’s foreign policy often does not reflect popular opinion.

 

Power Dynamics

Though Iran possesses a vast missile arsenal, including the Shihab series and Zolfaghar missiles, Israel’s advanced technology, missile systems, and defense capabilities (such as the Iron Dome) offer it a robust defense against missile and drone threats.

In terms of conventional military forces, Israel’s technological superiority in air and missile defense surpasses Iran’s, despite Iran's greater population and larger standing army.

The rivalry also extends into cyber warfare, where Israel’s sophisticated digital infrastructure makes it vulnerable to Iran’s increasing cyber capabilities. However, Iran’s defense systems remain less advanced, making its own networks susceptible to counterattacks.

This complex, decades-long enmity continues to shape regional alliances and tensions across the Middle East.

Who Holds More Military Power: Iran or Israel?

The military power dynamics between Iran and Israel are complex, influenced by distance, technological capabilities, and differing defense strategies. Despite the 2,152-kilometer gap, Iran has demonstrated the reach of its missiles, proving significant progress in its missile program.

Iran is home to the Middle East’s largest and most diverse missile program, reportedly possessing over 3,000 ballistic missiles, according to U.S. Central Command’s General Kenneth McKenzie in 2022. On the other hand, Israel’s missile capabilities remain less public, though it is widely recognized as having the most advanced missile stockpile in the region. Over the last six decades, Israel has developed missiles, both domestically and through collaboration with allies, notably the United States, and even exports them. Notable missiles in Israel’s arsenal include the Delilah, Gabriel, Jericho series, and Popeye, among others. Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system, however, stands as a unique asset, effectively intercepting a range of incoming threats, including rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to Israeli missile defense engineer Uzi Rubin, the Iron Dome is unmatched worldwide, serving as a reliable short-range defense system. Conversely, Iran, a larger nation by both land and population, presents its own advantages. However, comparing these factors alone doesn't directly translate to greater military power. Israel allocates substantial funds to its defense budget—nearly $24 billion compared to Iran's $10 billion—enhancing its technological and defensive superiority.

While Iran has approximately 610,000 active military personnel, significantly more than Israel's 170,000, Israel excels in advanced technology and air force capabilities, boasting 241 fighter jets and 48 attack helicopters compared to Iran's 186 jets and 13 helicopters. Iran has focused heavily on missile and drone capabilities, producing both short- and long-range options. These have occasionally appeared in regional conflicts, including missile strikes attributed to Iranian support in Yemen.

Key missiles in Iran's inventory include the Shihab series, capable of up to 2,000 kilometers, and the Zolfaghar, which can target at ranges up to 700 kilometers. Recently, Iran added the Fateh-110 hypersonic missile with a range of 300-500 kilometers, marking advancements in its missile technology. Yet, while Iran has launched hundreds of missiles, Israel’s history of guerrilla operations on foreign soil showcases a tactical edge.

In terms of cyber warfare, both nations engage heavily, though Israel’s advanced digital infrastructure presents vulnerabilities against Iran's cyber capabilities, balancing the technological disparities with cyber strategies. This sophisticated and multifaceted rivalry between Iran and Israel thus spans missile technology, military budgets, and the shadowy domain of cyber defense, shaping their regional standoff.

 

Iran versus Pakistan, Economic, Local and Military Review

Iran vs. Pakistan: An Examination of Tensions

Historical Background of the Border Dispute

The 900-kilometer border between Pakistan and Iran, known as the Goldsmith Line, was demarcated by Goldsmith in 1871. Along this border live Baloch tribes who do not recognize the boundary, carrying out insurgent activities in both countries. On the Iranian side, a Sunni Baloch minority resides, feeling marginalized by the central government, which they accuse of religious discrimination. The U.S. Counterterrorism Agency notes that groups like Jaish al-Adl advocate for these Baloch rights, further straining relations.

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran and Pakistan were both aligned with the Western bloc. In the 1970s, Iran’s Shah even assisted Pakistan in curbing separatist activities in Balochistan. However, after the revolution, Iran became adversarial to the West, while Pakistan remained aligned with it. Although both countries opposed the Soviet Union during the Afghan jihad, Iran supported the Northern Alliance (predominantly Shiite Hazara) while Pakistan backed the Mujahideen.

Military Capabilities and Economic Strengths

According to the Global Fire Index, Pakistan ranks 9th in military strength while Iran ranks 14th. However, neighboring conflicts are rarely won through military prowess alone. Factors like economic stability, natural resources, technological dependency, strategic location, religious identity, ethnic diversity, and population dynamics also play a crucial role.

Geographically, Iran is twice as large as Pakistan, yet Pakistan has triple the population. Economically, Iran holds an advantage with a robust oil and gas reserve (the world’s second-largest natural gas and third-largest oil reserves), while Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, spending around $17 billion annually. Iran’s export and import revenues are $107 billion and $54 billion, respectively, allowing for financial independence, whereas Pakistan’s trade deficit and external debt create ongoing dependency on international aid from the IMF, the U.S., and Gulf states.

Iran’s identity is rooted in religious zeal and ancient pride. Its 3,200-year-old history saw it as a superpower, rivaling ancient Greece. Notably, Cyrus the Great (550 BCE) and Darius I (who ruled after seizing power in 522 BCE) led Persia as the world’s largest empire, until Alexander the Great defeated King Darius III in 323 BCE.

Iran's Religious Transformation and Influence

Iran’s religious identity evolved significantly over centuries. Before Islam, it was the birthplace of Zoroastrianism, a state religion from the 15th to the 10th century BCE. Following the arrival of Islam, Khalid ibn al-Walid’s victory over the Persian province of Mesopotamia in 633 CE marked the beginning of Islamic influence. In 636 CE, Sa'd ibn Abi Waqqas achieved a decisive victory at the Battle of Qadisiyyah, and by 642, under Caliph Umar’s orders, Muslim forces gradually gained control of Persia.

Currently, 99% of Iran’s population is Muslim, with around 90% identifying as Shia and 9% as Sunni. Iran’s shift to Shiism occurred in the 16th century when Shah Ismail I of the Safavid dynasty enforced Shia Islam, giving Sunnis the ultimatum to convert or face death. His actions led to conflicts with the Ottoman Empire and established a strong Shia identity in Iran.

Modern Iran as a Religious State

The 1979 Islamic Revolution marked Iran’s emergence as a theocratic state. Iran has since engaged in regional ideological influence, including an eight-year war with Iraq. Despite facing Western and Arab support for Iraq, Iran emerged resilient. In contrast, Pakistan, with its Sunni majority (85-90%) and Shia minority (10-15%), experiences sectarian divides, with frequent religious and political tensions. Globally, Pakistan has the second-largest Shia population after Iran, and sectarian violence, notably in the 1990s, highlighted the internal challenges intensified by Iran’s growing influence.

Ethnic Composition in Iran and Pakistan

Iran’s population is composed of various ethnic groups: Persian speakers make up 60-65%, Azeris 15-17%, Kurds 7-10%, Baloch 2%, and Turks 1%. Pakistan, although Punjabi-majority, has an ethnically diverse landscape, creating additional challenges in maintaining national unity.

Current Tensions at the Border

The Baloch region spans both Pakistan (Balochistan) and Iran (Sistan), leading to cross-border accusations. Iran alleges attacks from Pakistani territory, and Pakistan holds similar views. Recently, Iran conducted operations within Pakistani territory, prompting Pakistan to retaliate. Without diplomatic intervention, these events risk escalating into sustained cross-border hostilities, which neither country desires.

Iran's Broader Ambitions

Iran’s recent regional confrontations—such as strikes on Iraq and Syria—raise questions. Some speculate that domestic pressures to support Gaza amidst the Israel conflict have contributed to Iran’s aggression. Additionally, Iran faces strained relations with the U.S. under Biden, who recently issued a warning of potential conflict. The timing of Iran’s actions against Pakistan appears puzzling, suggesting either a miscalculated step or an overreach influenced by internal or regional pressures.

Global Implications

Iran’s support for the Houthi rebels, who target ships in the Red Sea, poses risks to one of the world’s key maritime routes. This path is crucial for trade between East and West, connecting through the Suez Canal. If blocked, ships would need to detour around South Africa, increasing transport time, insurance costs, and, consequently, the price of goods globally.

With inflation already heightened by the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, this instability could further strain economies worldwide. Countries like Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, China, and Japan are particularly keen to avoid further disruptions. The U.S. and the UK have deployed a multinational task force in the Red Sea, reinforcing their naval presence. Western powers, including Israel, could leverage Iran’s unprovoked attack on Pakistan to shift public opinion against Iran, potentially setting the stage for action against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Pakistan's Stance

While Pakistan is reluctant to worsen ties with Iran, ignoring such an incursion could invite further attacks. Unlike Syria, Yemen, or Iraq, Pakistan has previously demonstrated resilience against similar challenges from India, making a strong response likely.

As of recent reports, Pakistan has conducted retaliatory strikes against anti-state elements in Iran’s Sistan region. In military strength, Pakistan remains better positioned than Iran, though it has no desire for prolonged conflict. Diplomacy remains the most viable solution, as an armed escalation would only fuel tensions and external interventions, risking a broader regional conflict.