Smog! A New Threat Emerging in India and Pakistan

Smog: A Growing Hazard in India and Pakistan 

The competition for the world's most polluted city is being run in between Lahore and New Delhi.

Pakistan ranks 179 & India ranks 176 out of 180 countries on the Environmental Performance Index. 

According to the World Health Organisation, air pollution in Pakistan is expected to increase by 50% by 2030.

In recent years, smog has emerged as a significant environmental and public health threat in South Asia, especially in India and Pakistan. This hazardous mixture of smoke and fog, scientifically known as “photochemical smog,” results from complex reactions between pollutants like nitrogen oxides and sunlight. The issue has garnered increasing concern due to its profound health impacts, economic costs, and detrimental effects on regional ecosystems.

What is SMOG!

Smog is essentially a cocktail of smoke and fog, intensified in colder weather when emissions from vehicles, industries, and burning biomass combine with cooler air and sunlight. Known as photochemical smog, it forms primarily when nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and other pollutants react under sunlight. The resultant particulate matter, particularly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller), can easily penetrate the respiratory system and bloodstream, posing severe health risks.

Definition of Smog

The term "smog" is a portmanteau of the words "smoke" and "fog". It's a particulate cloud that's often seen over urban areas. The term "smog" was first used in the early 1900s to describe a mix of smoke and fog. In 1909, more than 1,000 people died from smog in Glasgow and Edinburgh alone. 

What is Air Quality Index

Air quality is measured by the Air Quality Index (AQI) in particulate matter (PM) units. Recently, Lahore’s AQI levels for smog and pollution surpassed 700 for the first time in recorded history. According to NASA, between 15,000 and 18,000 fires were lit across India and Pakistan to clear fields. Farmers commonly burn rice stubble after harvesting, especially toward the end of October, resulting in massive amounts of airborne pollutants. Reports indicate that in India alone, approximately 32 million tons of rice stubble were burned.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is typically categorized into six levels, each representing a different level of air quality and its impact on health. Here’s the standard AQI scale used by many countries, including the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 

Types of Smog

There are two main types of smog:  

• Photochemical smog: This type of smog is most common in urban areas. It's created when sunlight reacts with nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from car exhaust, coal power plants, and factory emissions.  

• Sulphurous smog: Also known as "London smog", this type of smog is caused by high concentrations of sulfur oxides (SOx) in the air from fossil fuels like coal. It's made worse by dampness and particulate matter (PM).

Smog Situation in Region

On November 10, 2024, NASA released an image showing Pakistan’s Punjab province shrouded in thick smog, visible even from space. This image was circulated widely by global media outlets.

The contest for the world's most polluted city is currently between Lahore and New Delhi. Sometimes one is ahead, sometimes the other. Annually, Lahore ranks as the 5th most polluted city globally, 

Faisalabad ranks 12th, 

and Peshawar ranks 34th.

Out of the world's 50 most polluted cities, 42 are in India and 3 in Pakistan. This makes our region the epicenter of global pollution. Among the most polluted countries, Bangladesh ranks first, Pakistan second, and India third.

Multan AQI crosses 2,000 Mark

In Multan, the air quality index (AQI) hit a staggering 2,135, a level far beyond safe limits. This AQI reading is more than six times the "hazardous" threshold of 300.

Why Doesn’t Smog Form in Karachi or Mumbai?

Smog, a pressing environmental challenge, is a common phenomenon in cities like Lahore and Delhi but is notably absent in coastal cities such as Karachi and Mumbai. Understanding why this disparity exists requires a look at weather patterns, geographical features, and pollution dynamics.  

Smog formation relies heavily on two conditions: high pollution levels and specific atmospheric factors. In regions like Lahore and Delhi, cooler weather during winter leads to fog—a collection of water droplets suspended in the air. When pollution particles mix with fog, they create the dense, hazardous haze we call smog.  

In contrast, Karachi and Mumbai, being coastal cities, benefit from steady sea breezes. These winds disperse pollutants, preventing fog and smog from forming. The absence of stagnant air conditions means that pollution particles don’t settle in one place, unlike in landlocked regions prone to still weather. 

Who is Responsible for Smog?  

In Punjab, transportation contributes the most to smog at 43%. The industrial sector follows with 25%, agriculture at 20%, and emissions from coal-fired power plants and generators at 12%. If we focus solely on Lahore, 83% of its smog is due to vehicle emissions. In Pakistan, motorcycles alone consume 40% of the total fuel.

While weather plays a significant role in smog formation, human activities remain the primary driver. In Pakistan, 83% of air pollution comes from vehicles. The sheer volume of automobiles and motorcycles on the road contributes significantly to the problem:  

• Over 4 million cars and 24 million motorcycles operate in Pakistan.  
• In the past five years alone, Pakistan imported petroleum products worth $73 billion. Of this, $15 billion worth of fuel was consumed by motorcycles, which account for 69% of vehicular emissions. Cars and jeeps contribute an additional 23%.  

These staggering figures highlight the scale of pollution stemming from the transportation sector.  

Why Is Pakistan Lagging in Cleaner Fuel Technology?  

Globally, countries have shifted to cleaner fuel standards like Euro 5, which significantly reduces vehicular emissions. This advanced fuel, also known as "high-octane," produces up to 60% less toxic emissions compared to regular fuel.  

However, Pakistan continues to use Euro 2, a far less efficient and more polluting grade of fuel. The reliance on outdated standards exacerbates the air quality crisis, as vehicles emit higher concentrations of harmful gases.  

If Pakistan transitioned to Euro 5 fuel and mandated its use across all vehicles, it would drastically reduce the severity of air pollution, especially in smog-prone regions.  

Health Impacts of Smog Exposure  

The adverse health effects of smog are well-documented. PM 2.5, which is especially prevalent in smog, is small enough to bypass natural body defenses and enter deep into the lungs and bloodstream, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, aggravation of asthma, and, in some cases, premature death. In Pakistan alone, pollution-related illnesses claim over 125,000 lives annually. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that nearly 22% of deaths in Pakistan are linked to pollution, with a substantial portion attributed to air quality.

Smog exposure has also been shown to decrease life expectancy. A recent study found that long-term exposure to air pollution can reduce the average life expectancy by up to four years in Punjab, the hardest-hit region.

Environmental Factors: The Role of Agriculture and Industry 

Smog severely damages crops and ecosystems. 

Agricultural practices contribute significantly to seasonal smog, with crop residue burning a major factor. Each autumn, farmers in both India and Pakistan burn leftover stubble after the rice harvest. According to NASA, between 15,000 and 18,000 fires are ignited across the region during this time. A 2023 report highlighted that around 32 million tons of rice stubble were burned in India alone, releasing substantial pollutants into the atmosphere.

Urban sources also exacerbate the problem. Lahore’s transportation sector, for example, with around 5 million motorcycles, is a major contributor to smog. Converting these vehicles to electric power could markedly reduce emissions. Industrial emissions, especially from coal-fired plants and kilns, are significant contributors, as they release particulate matter and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. 

This escalating pollution poses a dire threat to public health and the environment. Immediate measures are needed to control emissions from key contributors, particularly the transportation and industrial sectors. Enhancing public transportation, adopting cleaner energy sources, and enforcing stringent environmental regulations can help mitigate this crisis.

Investing in green technologies, promoting awareness about the adverse effects of pollution, and international cooperation are crucial steps to safeguard our future. The time to act is now if we wish to breathe cleaner air and protect our planet for generations to come.

 

Comparative Lessons from The Great Smog of London  

The Great Smog of London in 1952 is an instructive historical precedent. The event, which resulted in nearly 10,000 deaths, led the United Kingdom to enact the Clean Air Act, restricting coal burning and imposing controls on industrial and vehicular emissions. Similar policies could be adapted for South Asia to address smog and pollution-related challenges.

Economic Costs of Smog 

Beyond health impacts, the economic toll of smog is immense. A 2022 World Bank report estimated that air pollution cost the Indian economy approximately $95 billion annually, or around 3% of its GDP, due to productivity losses, healthcare costs, and premature deaths. Pakistan, too, faces significant economic strain from pollution, with healthcare costs rising in proportion to the increasing air quality index (AQI).

Protective Measures for Individuals 

In the face of persistent smog, personal protection is also crucial. Reducing outdoor activities during high-smog days, using air purifiers indoors, and wearing protective masks outdoors can help mitigate individual exposure to harmful particles.

Solutions: A Call for Regional Cooperation 

Given the trans-boundary nature of air pollution, regional collaboration is essential. Both India and Pakistan need to coordinate a comprehensive action plan. Introducing stricter emissions standards, promoting cleaner technologies in agriculture and transportation, and educating farmers on alternatives to crop burning could all make a substantial impact. Incentives for sustainable farming methods, along with penalties for burning practices, might encourage wider adoption. Encouraging farmers to adopt alternative methods could help curb this smoke.

Moreover, bikes and transport should be shifted from fossil fuels to electric energy.

Fossil-fuelled plants should be converted to other resources like renewable energy.

Tackling the smog crisis in South Asia requires immediate, well-coordinated action. While smog is not a new phenomenon, the scale and severity it has reached in India and Pakistan are unprecedented. As other countries have shown, policy reforms, technological solutions, and community involvement can make a difference. Collaborative efforts between India and Pakistan, driven by a shared action plan, could transform smog from a perpetual threat to a managed challenge, benefiting the health, economy, and environment of the entire region.

The Path Forward  

To address smog effectively, a multipronged approach is necessary:  

1. Upgrade Fuel Standards: Transitioning to Euro 5 fuel is critical for reducing toxic emissions.  

2. Promote Public Transport: Reducing the reliance on personal vehicles can significantly cut down emissions. Investments in efficient and affordable public transit systems are essential.  

3. Encourage Electric Vehicles: A shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles can alleviate the environmental burden caused by traditional fuel consumption.  

4. Adopt Urban Greenery: Planting trees and creating green belts can absorb pollutants and improve air quality.  

5. Strengthen Regulation: Enforcing stricter emission standards for vehicles and industries will ensure accountability and compliance.  

Smog is a reminder of the environmental toll of unchecked human activity. While Karachi and Mumbai escape its grip due to their coastal climates, cities like Lahore and Delhi suffer its full impact. Addressing this challenge requires not only technological upgrades but also a collective commitment to sustainable practices.  

The solution lies in proactive measures—transitioning to cleaner fuels, adopting greener transportation options, and enforcing robust environmental regulations. Only through such initiatives can we breathe cleaner air and pave the way for a healthier future. 

Iran vs Israel

 

Why Are Iran and Israel Enemies?

Iran and Israel, once allies, have become fierce adversaries, particularly since Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian consulates in Syria and Iran’s counterattacks with drones and missiles exemplify this ongoing rivalry, which has intensified over recent decades. Iran openly expresses its desire to erase Israel from the map, while Israel considers Iran its greatest adversary.

A Historical Shift

Before Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, Israel and Iran shared a cooperative alliance. Iran was one of the first nations to recognize Israel in 1948, viewing Israel as a counterbalance against Arab nations. In exchange for oil, Israel provided Iran with technical expertise, training Iranian agricultural specialists and supporting its armed forces.

Changing Relations After 1979

The 1979 revolution marked a turning point, as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his religious regime dissolved previous treaties with Israel. Iran began vocally opposing Israel’s control over Palestinian territories, with its increasingly severe rhetoric aimed at gaining support from regional Arab populations and expanding its own influence.

When Israel intervened in Lebanon’s civil conflict in 1982, Khomeini sent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to Beirut to back local Shia militias. The Hezbollah militia, which grew from this support, is now a key Iranian proxy in Lebanon.

Present-Day Relations

Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continues the anti-Israel stance, frequently questioning the Holocaust’s narrative and opposing any form of compromise with Israel.

• Is the war between Iran and Israel a war of religion and ideology or is it a struggle for dominance in the region?

The complex relationship between Iran and Israel encompasses a blend of religious, ideological, and geopolitical factors, though many analysts view the conflict as fundamentally rooted in a struggle for regional dominance with religion as a powerful but secondary component.

1. Ideological and Religious Dimensions

• Religious Rhetoric: The animosity includes religious undertones, particularly from Iran's leadership, which often frames Israel as an “illegitimate Zionist entity.” This aligns with Iran's role as a Shia Muslim theocracy, positioning itself against Israel, which it portrays as a Western-backed, secular state in the heart of the Islamic Middle East​.
• Ideological Rivalry: Iran’s revolutionary ideology, which opposes Western influence and promotes a model of Islamic governance, is fundamentally at odds with Israel's democratic system and its alliances with the West, particularly the United States​.

2. Geopolitical and Strategic Motivations

• Regional Dominance: Both nations are vying for influence in the Middle East. Iran has expanded its presence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen through proxy groups like Hezbollah, which is a key part of its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel. Israel, in turn, seeks to curb Iranian influence by countering these proxies and limiting Iran’s reach, particularly near its own borders​.
• Nuclear Ambitions: Iran’s nuclear program adds another layer, as Israel perceives a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat. Israel’s preventive measures against this—such as alleged cyber attacks and airstrikes on Iranian assets—reflect a strategic attempt to maintain military superiority in the region​.

3. National Security and Existential Threats

• Mutual Perception as a Threat: Both states view each other as significant threats to their national security. Iran views Israel’s alliance with Western powers, particularly the United States, as a containment strategy aimed at Iran’s isolation. Conversely, Israel sees Iran's support for anti-Israel groups and its military expansion as efforts to encircle and threaten Israel​.

While religion and ideology amplify the tension, the core of the Iran-Israel conflict lies in regional dominance and security concerns. Iran’s support for armed groups in opposition to Israel and its nuclear ambitions challenge Israel’s position, while Israel actively works to counterbalance Iran’s influence. Thus, though religious rhetoric is evident, this rivalry is driven largely by geopolitical strategies and power struggles.

 

Debates Within Iran

Not all Iranians support the government’s antagonistic approach toward Israel. Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, suggested in a 2021 interview that Iran reconsider its relationship with Israel, highlighting that alliances with Russia and China overlook the treatment of Muslims in Chechnya and Xinjiang.

There are still more than 20,000 Jewish residents living in Iran

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political science professor at Tehran University, criticized Iran’s policy on Israel, stating it isolates the country on the international stage.

• Do the Iranian people want war or is this a strategy of the ruling Iranian political party to hold on to power?

The general sentiment among the Iranian people tends to be against war, particularly with Israel or the West. Many Iranians prioritize economic stability, improved living standards, and greater social freedoms, rather than conflict. Polls and studies, while sometimes limited in scope due to restrictions within Iran, indicate that a significant portion of the population seeks reform and wishes for normalized relations with other nations, including the West and neighboring countries, rather than confrontational policies​.

Strategy of the Iranian Political Leadership

Iran’s ruling authorities, particularly hardline factions within the government, use anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric strategically. This approach serves multiple purposes:

• Maintaining Unity and Control: By emphasizing external threats, Iranian leaders are able to promote a narrative of national solidarity against foreign "enemies," which can help divert attention from domestic issues such as inflation, unemployment, and political repression.
• Legitimizing Their Rule: Iran’s Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps often portray themselves as protectors of Islamic and Iranian values against Western influence, justifying their power and strict policies as necessary for national security.

Public Sentiment vs. Government Stance

The Iranian public's views frequently contrast with those of their government. For example, during major protests, such as those in 2009 (the Green Movement) and 2019 (economic protests), many Iranians voiced dissatisfaction with their government’s foreign policies, especially its involvement in regional conflicts like those in Syria and Yemen. Economic hardships stemming from sanctions and the government’s military expenditures abroad have also fueled domestic discontent​.

The Iranian government’s stance on regional conflicts and its anti-Israel rhetoric are more likely strategies to consolidate internal control and assert regional influence. Meanwhile, the Iranian populace generally favors peace and economic reform over war. This divide highlights the complexity of Iran's internal politics, where the government’s foreign policy often does not reflect popular opinion.

 

Power Dynamics

Though Iran possesses a vast missile arsenal, including the Shihab series and Zolfaghar missiles, Israel’s advanced technology, missile systems, and defense capabilities (such as the Iron Dome) offer it a robust defense against missile and drone threats.

In terms of conventional military forces, Israel’s technological superiority in air and missile defense surpasses Iran’s, despite Iran's greater population and larger standing army.

The rivalry also extends into cyber warfare, where Israel’s sophisticated digital infrastructure makes it vulnerable to Iran’s increasing cyber capabilities. However, Iran’s defense systems remain less advanced, making its own networks susceptible to counterattacks.

This complex, decades-long enmity continues to shape regional alliances and tensions across the Middle East.

Who Holds More Military Power: Iran or Israel?

The military power dynamics between Iran and Israel are complex, influenced by distance, technological capabilities, and differing defense strategies. Despite the 2,152-kilometer gap, Iran has demonstrated the reach of its missiles, proving significant progress in its missile program.

Iran is home to the Middle East’s largest and most diverse missile program, reportedly possessing over 3,000 ballistic missiles, according to U.S. Central Command’s General Kenneth McKenzie in 2022. On the other hand, Israel’s missile capabilities remain less public, though it is widely recognized as having the most advanced missile stockpile in the region. Over the last six decades, Israel has developed missiles, both domestically and through collaboration with allies, notably the United States, and even exports them. Notable missiles in Israel’s arsenal include the Delilah, Gabriel, Jericho series, and Popeye, among others. Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system, however, stands as a unique asset, effectively intercepting a range of incoming threats, including rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to Israeli missile defense engineer Uzi Rubin, the Iron Dome is unmatched worldwide, serving as a reliable short-range defense system. Conversely, Iran, a larger nation by both land and population, presents its own advantages. However, comparing these factors alone doesn't directly translate to greater military power. Israel allocates substantial funds to its defense budget—nearly $24 billion compared to Iran's $10 billion—enhancing its technological and defensive superiority.

While Iran has approximately 610,000 active military personnel, significantly more than Israel's 170,000, Israel excels in advanced technology and air force capabilities, boasting 241 fighter jets and 48 attack helicopters compared to Iran's 186 jets and 13 helicopters. Iran has focused heavily on missile and drone capabilities, producing both short- and long-range options. These have occasionally appeared in regional conflicts, including missile strikes attributed to Iranian support in Yemen.

Key missiles in Iran's inventory include the Shihab series, capable of up to 2,000 kilometers, and the Zolfaghar, which can target at ranges up to 700 kilometers. Recently, Iran added the Fateh-110 hypersonic missile with a range of 300-500 kilometers, marking advancements in its missile technology. Yet, while Iran has launched hundreds of missiles, Israel’s history of guerrilla operations on foreign soil showcases a tactical edge.

In terms of cyber warfare, both nations engage heavily, though Israel’s advanced digital infrastructure presents vulnerabilities against Iran's cyber capabilities, balancing the technological disparities with cyber strategies. This sophisticated and multifaceted rivalry between Iran and Israel thus spans missile technology, military budgets, and the shadowy domain of cyber defense, shaping their regional standoff.

 

Can Watching a Film Change Political Beliefs?

We forget what we read in books.

But!
We are often reminded of movies.
The screams are remembered,
Does the movie leave such a deep impression On the us?

Brief History of Film-making

Film making began in the late 19th century with inventors like Thomas Edison and the Lumière brothers, who created early motion picture cameras and projectors. In 1895, the Lumières presented some of the first public screenings of short films in Paris, an event considered the birth of cinema. As technology evolved, so did film techniques, with the introduction of sound in the 1920s, color in the 1930s, and, much later, digital cinematography in the 21st century. Today, films range from blockbusters to indie productions, shaping culture and storytelling across the world.

A Brief on Film’s Story, Characters, and Emotions

A film's story generally follows a narrative arc, presenting conflicts and resolutions that reveal characters’ depth and growth. Characters are designed to engage audiences on an emotional level, often embodying relatable struggles, virtues, and flaws. Films typically evoke a range of emotions—joy, sorrow, fear, anticipation—that connect viewers to the story, helping them experience different lives, cultures, and perspectives. Emotional connections with characters often enhance the impact of the storyline, making viewers feel more engaged and invested.

Role of Emotions in Film

Emotions are a film’s primary tool for connecting with the audience. They help communicate themes, build tension, and deliver meaningful messages. For instance, a well-crafted drama may evoke empathy, while a thriller may stir suspense or fear. By carefully controlling the emotional flow through lighting, music, dialogue, and cinematography, filmmakers can guide viewers’ feelings and attitudes. This emotional journey is central to a film's impact, as it shapes how audiences interpret the story and respond to its message.

How Does a Film Affect a Person?

Films can impact people psychologically and emotionally, sometimes even altering their views and attitudes. Emotional experiences in film allow viewers to "live" the story, fostering empathy or challenging beliefs. This can lead to shifts in personal attitudes, especially regarding societal issues, justice, and interpersonal relationships. By immersing people in scenarios outside their own experiences, films can promote greater understanding, empathy, and sometimes even action.

 

Can Watching a Film Change Political Beliefs?

A recent scientific study suggests that viewing a documentary about a wrongfully convicted individual can foster empathy toward prisoners and increase support for reforms in the U.S. criminal justice system.

The documentary, Just Mercy, recounts the story of Walter McMillian, a 45-year-old African American man from Alabama who was arrested in 1986 for a murder he did not commit. Although McMillian was innocent—he was at a family gathering during the crime—he was sentenced based on false testimony from an eyewitness. Before his conviction was overturned, McMillian spent six years on death row. This true story was adapted into a documentary in 2019 under the title Just Mercy, with Academy Award-winning actor Jamie Foxx portraying McMillian.

Since the 1890s, when the first moving images were introduced, filmmakers have sought to shift public perceptions and moral values through cinema. Now, American scientists have studied the effects of film on empathy and attitudes toward the justice system, exploring how watching a movie can alter an individual's emotional intelligence and ethical stance on criminal justice.

This study, published in the journal PNAS on October 21, revealed that viewing a documentary about the wrongful sentencing and eventual release of an inmate heightened viewers' empathy toward prisoners and increased support for justice system reforms.

Marianne Reddan, a professor at Stanford University and co-author of the study, noted, "[Our study] shows that the film allowed participants to see the world from another’s perspective, even when that individual faced societal stigma. This shift in perspective wasn’t just a fleeting reaction."

Reddan further explained, "This research highlights the importance of exposing people to experiences vastly different from their own, as it contributes to building healthier communities and fostering a robust political framework."

The study recorded an increase in empathy for incarcerated men among viewers of the film, an effect observed across participants with varying political affiliations, whether leaning left or right.

Film, Emotions, and Societal Polarization

Jussi Knaus-Bajow, a film studies researcher at the University of Jyväskylä in Finland, remarked, "The novelty of this study lies in its exploration of how films can alter viewers' perceptions and behaviors—especially how a film like Just Mercy can act as a ‘call to action.’"

The idea that a film can change minds isn’t new. According to Knaus-Bajow, "Filmmakers are like wizards; they have been experimenting with the impact of editing and cinematic techniques on viewers’ perceptions and emotions since the early days of cinema."

British filmmaker Alfred Hitchcock conducted a famous experiment that illustrates this effect: in one scene, a woman with a child is shown, followed by a man smiling, conveying a sense of kindness. In another scene, the same man is shown smiling after a shot of a woman in a bikini, which instead suggests lust.

Knaus-Bajow explains that filmmakers frequently play with this knowledge because films offer a unique, safe environment where viewers can experience unfamiliar emotions. However, this power also places a responsibility on filmmakers regarding their influence over audiences.

Using Just Mercy as an example, Knaus-Bajow describes how it was deployed as a tool to inspire progressive change in the justice system.

On the other hand, he warns, filmmakers can also incite antagonism or hatred, as propaganda films have long been used to dehumanize groups, justify violence or war, and promote false narratives or pseudoscience.

 

Has Film Been Used for Ideological or Political Propaganda?

Yes, film has frequently been used as a medium for ideological and political propaganda. Governments, organizations, and filmmakers have often used film to influence public opinion, from the early days of cinema up to the present. For example, during World War II, both Allied and Axis powers created propaganda films to bolster patriotism and demonize enemies. In more modern times, films still reflect and sometimes promote political agendas or ideologies, shaping how audiences view various social and political issues.

 

WHO IS BETTER FOR PAKISTAN, CHINA OR USA

WHO IS BETTER AND MORE BENEFICIARY FOR PAKISTAN,

CHINA OR USA & EUROPE UNION,

IN LIGHT OF ECONOMICAL, STRATEGICAL & DEFENCE?

When analysing which partner

1.    China or
2.    the USA & European Union (EU)

is better or more beneficial for Pakistan in terms of economic, strategic, and defence dimensions, it's important to consider several key factors. Both partnerships offer distinct advantages and challenges, and the answer largely depends on Pakistan’s long-term goals and priorities. Here’s a breakdown of the benefits and challenges of both relationships:

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1. Economic Relations

 

 China:

Ø China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC):

China’s largest contribution to Pakistan's economy is through CPEC, which is a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). CPEC is an investment project worth over $60 billion, focused on infrastructure development (roads, ports, and energy).

v Benefits:

1.    Infrastructure development (e.g., Gwadar port, roads, energy projects).

2.    Job creation and industrial growth.

3.    Long-term growth potential through improved connectivity and trade routes.

v Challenges:

1.    Rising concerns over debt dependency: Pakistan’s external debt to China has increased significantly, raising fears about "debt traps."

2.    Domestic political concerns over lack of transparency and the uneven distribution of CPEC benefits.

 

Pakistan-China Trade

Ø Exports to China:

1.    China is one of Pakistan’s top export destinations, though the trade balance is largely in China's favor. Pakistan primarily exports:

2.    Textiles and garments: Cotton yarn and fabrics are some of the key exports.

3.    Leather products.

4.    Agricultural goods: Rice and seafood are also significant exports.

5.    Minerals and ores: Pakistan exports some copper and other minerals to China.

 

  According to recent data (as of 2022-2023), Pakistan’s exports to China were valued at approximately $3 billion. However, this figure is relatively low compared to the imports from China.

 

Ø Imports from China:

1.    China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner when it comes to imports. The major imports include:

2.    Machinery and electronics: Heavy machinery, telecom equipment, and other capital goods make up a large portion.

3.    Chemical products: Including raw materials for Pakistan's pharmaceutical and textile industries.

4.    Iron and steel products.

5.    Electrical appliances and consumer goods.

 

  Imports from China have surpassed $14 billion annually, resulting in a significant trade deficit for Pakistan with China.

 

 Trade Balance with China:

Pakistan’s trade balance with China is heavily skewed towards China, resulting in a trade deficit of about $11 billion. Although CPEC is expected to help boost Pakistan’s export capacity in the future, as of now, the gap remains substantial.

 

 USA & European Union:

Ø Trade Relations: The US and EU are significant trade partners for Pakistan. The EU, in particular, is a key destination for Pakistan’s textile exports. Pakistan benefits from the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP+) status, which allows duty-free exports of Pakistani goods.

v Benefits:

1.    Access to lucrative Western markets, particularly for textiles, which is crucial for Pakistan’s export revenue.

2.    Support for foreign aid and development programs (USAID, World Bank, and other EU initiatives).

v Challenges:

1.    Declining US aid over time, particularly after the end of US operations in Afghanistan.

2.    Trade with the West may not lead to the same level of investment in infrastructure compared to China’s CPEC projects.

 

Pakistan-USA Trade

 

 Exports to the USA:

1.    The United States is one of the top export destinations for Pakistan, especially in the textile sector. Pakistan exports:

2.    Textiles and garments: Including cotton products, ready-made garments, and bed linen.

3.    Leather products.

4.    Surgical instruments: Pakistan is a leading exporter of surgical instruments to the US.

5.    Basmati rice and other agricultural goods.

 

  Pakistan’s exports to the USA were valued at approximately $5.9 billion in 2022. This makes the US one of Pakistan's largest markets, particularly for textiles.

 

 Imports from the USA:

1.    Pakistan imports a variety of products from the US, including:

2.    Machinery and equipment.

3.    Aircraft and defense-related equipment (historically).

4.    Agricultural products: Including cotton, soybeans, and other crops.

5.    Pharmaceutical products.

 

  Imports from the US amounted to about $2.6 billion in recent years, which makes the trade balance with the US positive for Pakistan, unlike the situation with China.

 

 Trade Balance with the USA:

Pakistan enjoys a trade surplus with the United States, as it exports more than it imports, largely due to the strong demand for Pakistani textiles and apparel in the US market. This surplus is approximately $3.3 billion.

 

Pakistan-European Union (EU) Trade

 

 Exports to the EU:

1.    The EU is another major trading partner, especially for textile exports. Pakistan benefits from GSP+ status, which grants Pakistani goods duty-free access to EU markets. Key exports include:

2.    Textiles: Including garments, home textiles, and fabrics.

3.    Leather goods.

4.    Surgical instruments.

5.    Rice and other agricultural products.

 

  Exports to the EU were valued at around $8.4 billion in 2022. Pakistan’s exports to the EU are highly concentrated in the textile sector, but they also include food products and other goods.

 

 Imports from the EU:

1.    Pakistan imports the following from the EU:

2.    Machinery and industrial equipment.

3.    Pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

4.    Chemicals for various industries, including agriculture and textiles.

5.    Automobiles and related parts.

 

  Imports from the EU were valued at approximately $5.4 billion in recent years, making the trade balance with the EU somewhat favorable but more balanced compared to China.

 

 Trade Balance with the EU:

Pakistan has a trade surplus with the EU, largely driven by textile exports. The surplus stands at around $3 billion, supported by preferential trade arrangements such as GSP+.

 

Impact of GSP+ on Pakistan's Exports

The Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) is a trade privilege that provides duty-free access to the European Union (EU) market for developing countries like Pakistan. The GSP+ status has had a significant positive impact on Pakistan’s exports to the EU, particularly in key sectors such as textiles and garments, leather goods, and agriculture. Here’s an in-depth look at the effects of GSP+ on Pakistan’s exports and the potential consequences if it were revoked:

---

1.    Boost to Exports:

o   GSP+ has dramatically increased Pakistan’s exports to the EU since Pakistan gained the status in 2014.

o   Exports to the EU rose by more than 60% since GSP+ status was granted, helping Pakistan access a market of over 500 million consumers.

o   Key export sectors benefiting from GSP+ include:

§  Textiles and garments: Pakistan’s largest export category to the EU, making up over 75% of total exports to the EU.

§  Leather goods: Including footwear, gloves, and other accessories.

§  Agricultural products: Especially rice, fruits, and seafood.

2.    Competitive Edge:

o   GSP+ gives Pakistan an advantage over non-GSP countries, as its goods enter the EU at zero tariffs, compared to the regular customs duties imposed on other countries.

o   This preferential access has made Pakistan’s exports more competitive, especially in the textile sector, which faces tough competition from countries like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam.

3.    Job Creation:

o   The GSP+ status has helped create millions of jobs, particularly in Pakistan’s textile industry. A large portion of the workforce in this sector is composed of women, making it a critical factor for Pakistan’s economic stability and social development.

4.    Diversification of Export Market:

o   The GSP+ status has allowed Pakistan to reduce its reliance on the US market and diversify its exports to the EU. The EU now accounts for a large percentage of Pakistan’s total exports, with about 30% of Pakistan’s exports going to the EU.

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Potential Impact if GSP+ Status is Revoked

If Pakistan’s GSP+ status is revoked, the consequences for its exports to the EU could be significant:

1.    Higher Tariffs:

o   Pakistan’s exports to the EU would face higher tariffs if GSP+ is revoked. Without this status, Pakistani goods would be subject to the EU’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, which could be anywhere from 5% to 12% for textiles and even higher for other goods.

o   The textile sector would be particularly hard hit, as textile and garment products are the backbone of Pakistan’s exports to the EU. The increased cost of tariffs could lead to reduced competitiveness and lower demand for Pakistani goods.

2.    Decline in Exports:

o   The removal of tariff advantages would likely result in a sharp decline in exports to the EU. Without GSP+, Pakistan would lose its competitive pricing advantage, and EU importers may turn to other low-cost suppliers like Bangladesh (which also has GSP+ status), India, or Vietnam.

o   Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s textile exports to the EU could fall by up to 30-50%, given the cost-sensitivity of the industry and the competitiveness of other exporters.

3.    Loss of Jobs:

o   A reduction in exports, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles, could lead to significant job losses in Pakistan. The textile industry employs around 40% of Pakistan's industrial labor force, and any disruption in export demand could result in large-scale unemployment.

o   This would disproportionately affect women and rural workers who depend on the textile sector for their livelihoods.

4.    Reduction in Foreign Exchange:

o   The EU is one of Pakistan’s largest export destinations, and a decline in exports would result in a loss of foreign exchange earnings, exacerbating Pakistan’s trade deficit and putting pressure on its balance of payments.

5.    Negative Impact on Investment:

o   The uncertainty around GSP+ status could deter foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan, particularly in export-oriented industries such as textiles, as businesses and investors might be reluctant to invest without the assurance of duty-free access to the EU market.

o   Existing manufacturers may also shift production to other GSP+ countries that offer more stable access to the EU.

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Broader Economic and Diplomatic Implications

1.    Pressure on Economic Growth:

o   Given the strong correlation between Pakistan’s export performance and its overall economic growth, the loss of GSP+ could hamper GDP growth, particularly in a country already facing economic challenges like high inflation, external debt, and fiscal deficits.

2.    Diplomatic Repercussions:

o   The GSP+ status is tied to compliance with 27 international conventions related to human rights, labor rights, environmental protection, and good governance. Pakistan’s failure to meet these obligations, particularly regarding human rights and labor standards, could not only lead to the loss of GSP+ but also diplomatic isolation from the EU.

o   The revocation of GSP+ could strain Pakistan-EU relations and reduce the EU's willingness to engage in development aid and broader economic cooperation with Pakistan.

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Steps Pakistan Can Take to Retain GSP+ Status

1.    Improve Compliance with International Conventions:

o   To maintain GSP+ status, Pakistan needs to ensure compliance with the 27 international conventions, particularly those related to labor laws, human rights, and environmental protections. This includes improving the conditions for workers, safeguarding press freedom, and implementing reforms to address child labor and gender inequality.

2.    Engage in Diplomatic Dialogue:

o   Pakistan must actively engage with the EU to address any concerns related to its GSP+ compliance. This can involve working closely with EU monitors and engaging in proactive diplomacy to showcase efforts in improving governance and rights-related issues.

3.    Diversify Export Markets:

o   In case of future risks related to GSP+ or other trade privileges, Pakistan should focus on diversifying its export markets, exploring new trade opportunities with China, Africa, Middle Eastern countries, and ASEAN nations.

o   Furthermore, Pakistan should look to diversify its export basket, expanding beyond textiles to high-value products such as technology, engineering, and agricultural value-added goods.

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The GSP+ status has been immensely beneficial for Pakistan, particularly in boosting its textile exports to the European Union. If GSP+ status were revoked, it would lead to higher tariffs, a significant decline in exports, job losses, and a negative impact on Pakistan’s economy, especially in the textile sector.

To avoid these consequences, Pakistan must continue compliance efforts with international standards and engage diplomatically with the EU. In parallel, diversifying export markets and industries can help reduce over-reliance on the GSP+ arrangement in the future.

 

Comparison of Trade Relations:

 

| Partner      | Exports from Pakistan | Imports to Pakistan | Trade Balance |

|------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------|----------------|

| China                 | $3 billion                | $14 billion              | -$11 billion (deficit) |

| USA                    | $5.9 billion              | $2.6 billion             | +$3.3 billion (surplus) |

| European Union| $8.4 billion              | $5.4 billion             | +$3 billion (surplus) |

 

 Summary and Conclusion:

 

a.    China: Pakistan’s trade with China is highly import-dependent, leading to a significant trade deficit. While China is a key economic and strategic partner, Pakistan imports far more than it exports, and this trade imbalance remains a challenge. However, China’s investments through CPEC offer long-term growth potential.

 

b.   USA and EU: In contrast, Pakistan enjoys a trade surplus with both the USA and the EU, primarily driven by the strong demand for textiles. The US and EU provide Pakistan with key markets for exports and grant preferential trade access, especially in the case of the EU’s GSP+ scheme. This helps stabilize Pakistan’s trade accounts.

 

 Conclusion:

Ø China is crucial for Pakistan in terms of investment, infrastructure, and strategic alliances, but the trade deficit with China is a significant challenge.

Ø The USA and EU offer more immediate benefits in terms of trade surpluses, market access, and stable exports, particularly in the textile sector.

 

For Pakistan’s long-term economic health, maintaining strong ties with both China (for investment) and the USA/EU (for export growth and trade surpluses) is key to balancing these relationships effectively.

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2. Strategic Relations

 

 China:

Ø Strategic Alliance: China and Pakistan have a long-standing, time-tested relationship. China has been a reliable strategic partner for Pakistan, particularly in countering India's influence.

v Benefits:

1.    China is a consistent supporter of Pakistan in the United Nations and other international forums, especially regarding issues like Kashmir and India.

2.    Collaboration on defense technology, including the joint production of the JF-17 Thunder fighter jet and other military hardware.

v Challenges:

1.    While strategically aligned, China often prioritizes its own national interests, and Pakistan has limited leverage in influencing Chinese decisions.

2.    China’s growing ties with India and economic investments in other South Asian countries can sometimes dilute its exclusive support to Pakistan.

 

 USA & EU:

Ø Security Cooperation: Historically, Pakistan and the US have had close military ties, especially during the Cold War and the War on Terror. However, these relations have seen ups and downs.

v Benefits:

1.    Defense aid: The US has provided significant military and defense aid to Pakistan over the years.

2.    NATO and strategic cooperation during the war in Afghanistan allowed Pakistan to leverage its geopolitical importance for defense funding and support.

v Challenges:

1.    Deterioration of trust: After years of reliance, Pakistan-US relations have soured at times, particularly over concerns related to terrorism, Afghanistan, and nuclear policy.

2.    The US has increasingly turned toward India as a strategic partner in Asia to counter China, which can complicate the US-Pakistan relationship.

 

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 3. Defense Relations

 

 China:

Ø Defense Technology: China is Pakistan's largest supplier of military equipment. The two countries share a robust defense relationship, including the joint development of the JF-17 fighter jet and the supply of advanced military technology.

v Benefits:

1.    Steady supply of military equipment, including drones, submarines, and aircraft.

2.    China has provided strategic assistance to Pakistan's nuclear program in the past.

3.    Close military collaboration through regular joint exercises and defense projects.

v Challenges:

1.    Dependency on Chinese defense systems might limit Pakistan’s diversification of its defense portfolio.

 

 USA & EU:

Ø Military Aid and Training: In the past, Pakistan has received significant military aid from the US, including F-16 fighter jets, helicopters, and other military assets.

v Benefits:

1.    The US has provided Pakistan with advanced military technology, including the F-16 fighter jet program.

2.    Pakistan has historically received military training and intelligence cooperation from Western countries.

v Challenges:

1.    Suspensions of military aid: In recent years, US military aid has been suspended or cut due to concerns over Pakistan’s handling of terrorism and regional security.

2.    Western political pressure on issues related to democracy, governance, and terrorism.

 

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 4. Overall Strategic and Diplomatic Support

 

 China:

Ø China is generally seen as a more consistent and reliable ally to Pakistan on the international stage. It has supported Pakistan on issues like Kashmir and India, and has often shielded Pakistan from pressure in international forums, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

 

 USA & EU:

Ø While the US and EU are important, their relationship with Pakistan is less predictable. The US-Pakistan alliance often depends on short-term strategic interests (such as Afghanistan), and Washington’s pivot to India for strategic reasons has complicated ties with Islamabad.

 

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 Conclusion: China or USA & EU?

 

a.    Economically, China’s investment through CPEC is unmatched in terms of infrastructure development, but it comes with potential risks related to debt. On the other hand, the USA and the EU offer access to large export markets, especially for Pakistan's textile industry.

 

b.   Strategically, China is a long-term ally that shares Pakistan’s concerns about India, offering more reliable support on defense and regional issues. However, the US and EU remain important for balancing Pakistan’s international relations, as they provide alternative diplomatic and economic avenues.

 

c.    Defense-wise, while China offers a robust partnership in military development, Pakistan’s previous military cooperation with the US provided access to advanced technology and training.

 

In summary, China is the more reliable, consistent, and long-term partner for Pakistan, especially in terms of strategic and defense support, while the USA and EU are crucial for trade, market access, and diplomatic diversity. Ideally, Pakistan benefits most from balancing relationships between both China and Western partners, ensuring that it can leverage its geopolitical position effectively.