The end of Bashar al-Assad and the future of Syria

Bashar al-Assad: From an Eye Doctor in London to Syria's Controversial Leader

Bashar al-Assad's journey from a medical professional to an authoritarian leader accused of war crimes is marked by significant events and dramatic turns. Here's a timeline of key moments in his life and presidency:

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Early Life and Background (1965–1994)

• 1965: Born to Hafez al-Assad and Anisa Makhlouf, Bashar grew up in a politically tumultuous Syria under Arab nationalist Ba'athist rule.
• 1992: After studying medicine in Damascus, he moved to London for specialization in ophthalmology.
• 1994: Bashar’s elder brother, Basil, the heir apparent, died in a car accident. This tragedy redirected Bashar's path towards politics and leadership.

  

  Assad with his British-born wife Asma and their children

  
  

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Rise to Power (1994–2000)

• 1994: Returned to Syria to begin military training and prepare for leadership under his father's guidance.
• 2000: After Hafez al-Assad’s death, Bashar assumed Syria's presidency at 34, following constitutional amendments lowering the minimum age for the role.

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Early Presidency: Hopes and Setbacks (2000–2010)

• Initially, Bashar promoted transparency, modernisation, and political reforms, sparking a brief period of optimism known as the "Damascus Spring."
• 2001: Crackdown on dissent marked the end of this hopeful period, with arrests and suppression of opposition.
• Introduced limited economic reforms benefiting elites, notably his cousin Rami Makhlouf.
• 2003: Relations with the West soured after Syria opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, facing accusations of aiding insurgents.
• 2005: International pressure intensified after Lebanon's former PM Rafik Hariri was assassinated, leading to Syrian troops' withdrawal from Lebanon.

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Civil War and International Isolation (2011–2020)

• 2011: Inspired by Arab Spring protests, demonstrations in Syria escalated into a full-scale civil war.
• Bashar’s government faced accusations of severe repression, war crimes, and chemical attacks.
• Opposition movements fragmented, with extremist groups like ISIS seizing control of parts of Syria.
• 2015: Russia’s military intervention helped Assad regain key territories, solidifying his position but prolonging the conflict.

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Recent Years: Fragile Stability and Challenges (2020–Present)

• 2023: Syria rejoined the Arab League, signaling regional reintegration despite ongoing economic struggles.
• October 2023: Amidst regional conflicts, opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham advanced, capturing major cities like Aleppo and Homs, and claimed to seize Damascus.
• Reports suggested Assad fled Damascus, marking a critical point in his presidency.

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How Did Bashar al-Assad Flee Syria?

With Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham taking control of key cities, questions are arising about Bashar al-Assad’s future and whether his regime has finally come to an end. The last time Assad was seen in public was a week ago during a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, where he reiterated his commitment to “crushing” the rebels advancing swiftly across various parts of Syria.

In the early hours of Sunday, as fighters entered Damascus unopposed, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies declared, “The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria.” According to the FlightRadar24 website, there were no scheduled flights leaving Damascus during this time. However, at 12:56 a.m., a Cham Wings Airlines Airbus A320 departed for Sharjah in the UAE.

FlightRadar24 data showed the plane initially heading east of Damascus before turning northwest toward Syria’s Mediterranean coast, a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite community and home to Russian military bases. The aircraft’s transponder signal was lost at 4:39 a.m. while flying 13 kilometers west of Homs at an altitude of 1,625 feet.

In a post on social media platform X, FlightRadar24 stated that the aircraft’s outdated transponder might have caused some data loss. It added that the region experienced GPS jamming, which could also explain the missing data, and noted the absence of any known airports nearby.

Radar showed a plane heading towards the Mediterranean Sea from Damascus

Bashar al-Assad's escape from Syria on December 8, 2024, marks a pivotal moment in the country's ongoing conflict. As rebel forces advanced towards Damascus, Assad fled with his family on a Syrian Air flight that took off around 2 AM. The plane initially appeared to head towards the coast but then changed course and disappeared from radar, likely to avoid detection.

Russian officials played a crucial role in facilitating his escape, ensuring that he was transported securely out of the country. Following his departure, celebrations erupted among opposition groups, signaling a significant victory over Assad's regime.

Once in Russia, Assad and his family were granted asylum, reflecting Russia's long-standing support for him. His escape has led to a shift in power dynamics within Syria, which is now under a transitional administration backed by rebel factions. This event raises questions about the future governance of Syria and the ongoing implications of the conflict.

Syria’s Role in the Arab World: The Rise, Fall, and Beyond

Henry Kissinger once remarked, "The Arabs can't make war without Egypt and can't make peace without Syria." This sentiment highlights Syria's critical role in shaping the political and strategic dynamics of the Arab world. Once a symbol of resistance against Western dominance and Israeli influence, Syria now finds itself at a pivotal crossroads. With the end of Alawite rule after more than five decades, the region faces a complex interplay of power shifts, alliances, and uncertainties.

Syria: The Guardian of Arab Resistance

Damascus, often referred to as the world’s oldest continuously inhabited capital, has historically played a central role in the Arab-Israeli conflict. After Egypt’s withdrawal from the confrontation front following the 1971 Arab-Israeli War, Syria, under Hafez al-Assad, emerged as Israel’s most formidable Arab opponent. Kissinger, despite ideological differences, reportedly admired Assad's strategic acumen.

For decades, Syria was a bastion of defiance against U.S. hegemony and Israeli expansionism. Yet, the brutal nature of the Alawite regime, characterized by oppression and minority rule over a Sunni majority, sowed seeds of domestic unrest that ultimately eroded its stability.

A Nation at a Crossroads: Freedom or Decline?

The abrupt end of Alawite dominance presents a dual narrative. For some, it signifies the liberation of Syria from an oppressive regime; for others, it marks the decline of a nation once emblematic of Arab dignity.

Syria's current state reflects a complex paradox. On one hand, its fall from grace as a regional power weakens the broader Arab resistance against foreign intervention. On the other, the dissolution of autocratic rule offers a glimmer of hope for democratic governance, albeit fraught with challenges.

Winners and Losers in the New Geopolitical Order

The consequences of Syria’s transformation are far-reaching, with implications for multiple stakeholders:

• United States and Israel: The fall of the Assad regime is a significant geopolitical victory for both nations, as it dismantles a key axis of resistance. For Israel, this creates an opportunity to shift from perpetual conflict to strategic peacebuilding.

• Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan emerges as a major beneficiary. With increasing influence in northern Syria and ties to groups like Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Turkey is poised to shape Syria’s future. This success also facilitates the repatriation of Syrian refugees, a critical domestic goal for Erdoğan.

• Iran and Hezbollah: The Assad regime’s collapse is a severe blow to Iran’s regional ambitions and Hezbollah’s operational leverage in Lebanon. This weakens their collective ability to challenge U.S. and Israeli interests.

• Palestine: Perhaps the greatest casualty, the Palestinian cause faces increased isolation as key allies, such as Syria and Iran, falter.

How Do Iran and Israel View the Situation?

This marks the end of 50 years of Assad family rule, a shift that will alter the region’s power dynamics. Iran, which wielded significant influence through its alliance with Assad, has suffered a major setback. Under Assad, Syria served as a vital link between Iran and Hezbollah, facilitating the transfer of arms and ammunition.

With Hezbollah weakened after a year of conflict with Israel, its future remains uncertain. Similarly, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have faced repeated airstrikes. Along with other groups like militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, these factions formed Iran’s “axis of resistance.” This network now faces severe disruption.

Israel is likely to welcome this development, viewing Iran as a threat. Many believe that Turkey’s involvement was crucial in these events. While Turkey supports Syrian rebels, it has denied backing Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had previously urged Assad to pursue a diplomatic solution to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, a politically sensitive issue in Turkey where their number has reached three million. Assad, however, refused.

A Broader Geopolitical Domino Effect

The U.S. success in Syria reflects a larger strategy aimed at weakening adversaries like Russia and Iran. Caught in the quagmire of the Ukraine war, Russia’s inability to support Assad underscores its diminished global influence. The removal of Russian military bases in Syria could redirect Moscow’s focus toward strengthening its position in Eastern Europe.

China, too, cannot ignore the ripple effects. As America solidifies its influence in the Middle East, Beijing faces a strategic dilemma: whether to challenge U.S. dominance or adapt to a shifting global order.

Who Are Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former leader of the so-called Islamic State, played a role in its creation. Initially considered Assad’s most dangerous adversary, the group severed ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani’s leadership. HTS then merged with other factions to form a coalition.

While no longer aligned with al-Qaeda, HTS shifted its focus from establishing a global caliphate to creating a fundamentalist regime within Syria. Despite efforts to portray itself as a national force with diplomatic and conciliatory rhetoric, many remain skeptical of HTS’s intentions.

 

What Lies Ahead?

As rebels entered Damascus, Assad’s forces either abandoned their posts or joined the insurgents. In a televised announcement, the group proclaimed Assad’s ousting and declared, “Long live a free and independent Syria for all its people.” While many celebrate Assad’s departure, uncertainty looms over what follows.

HTS, with its roots in al-Qaeda and a history of violence, has attempted to rebrand itself. Yet, doubts persist about its governance after toppling Assad. This power vacuum in Syria could lead to further chaos and violence.

Lessons for the Muslim World

A united and conscious populace wields more power than any military: Scottish philosopher David Hume.

Syria’s political upheaval offers a stark reminder of a timeless truth: regimes that lose the support of their people are destined to fall. For countries like Pakistan, this lesson is especially relevant as they navigate their own internal challenges.

The downfall of the Asad dynasty serves as a compelling lesson: the true bedrock of a nation's stability lies in the contentment of its people. Overreliance on external support—be it military, financial, or political—can never substitute for the trust and acceptance that citizens place in their rulers. Stability is not granted by foreign alliances but is earned through the confidence and satisfaction of those governed.

Uncertain Future

The fall of the Alawite regime in Syria is both an end and a beginning. It signifies the closure of a chapter defined by autocratic rule and the potential for a new era of governance, albeit one fraught with uncertainties. For the broader Arab world, Syria’s trajectory underscores the delicate balance between resistance and survival in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

As the dust settles, one question remains: can Syria rise again as a beacon of dignity and resistance, or will it succumb to the tides of external influence and internal strife?

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Is India Still Secular? A Reflection on Changing Ideals

The Question of India's Secular Identity

India, once celebrated as a secular beacon in the diverse and fragmented subcontinent, now stands at a critical juncture. The ideals championed by visionaries like Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru—of unity, pluralism, and secular governance—appear increasingly tenuous. Under the strains of political populism, religious nationalism, and socio-cultural shifts, the foundational question resurfaces: Was India ever truly secular, or was this merely an aspirational ideal? More importantly, is India today edging closer to the divisive principles of the two-nation theory it once firmly rejected?

 

This article delves into the roots of Indian secularism, its current challenges, and the implications for the nation’s pluralistic ethos.

 

 The Foundations of Indian Secularism

 Gandhi’s Vision: Unity Through Nonviolence

Mahatma Gandhi envisioned secularism not as the negation of religion but as the harmonious coexistence of all faiths. For Gandhi, India’s strength lay in its diversity—its Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and Christians living as one. His philosophy of Ahimsa (nonviolence) was not merely a political tool but a moral framework designed to bridge interfaith divides, fostering mutual respect and collective harmony.

 

 Nehru’s Pragmatism: Secularism as a Shield Against Fragmentation

Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister, viewed secularism as indispensable to preserving national unity, particularly after the trauma of Partition. For him, secular governance was a safeguard against the divisive potential of religion in politics. Nehru institutionalized these ideals, culminating in the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1976, which formally declared India a secular state. Yet, this vision began to falter after his death, as sectarian politics gained ground, exposing the fragility of the ideal in a deeply religious society.

 

 The Erosion of Secularism: A Nation Divided

 The Rise of Religious Nationalism

The advent of Hindutva—a vision of India rooted in Hindu cultural supremacy—has significantly accelerated the erosion of India’s secular fabric. Spearheaded by organizations like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and promoted by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), this ideology marginalizes minorities, particularly Muslims, while rewriting India’s cultural and historical narratives. Renaming cities and landmarks with Islamic origins, such as changing Allahabad to Prayagraj, exemplifies this effort. These symbolic acts aim to erase the contributions of Muslims to India’s history, casting them as outsiders in the very nation they helped shape.

 

 The Social Isolation of Muslims

In regions like Uttar Pradesh, the syncretic culture of Ganga-Jamuni Tehzeeb—a blend of Hindu and Muslim traditions—is under siege. Muslims increasingly face social exclusion, with narratives of "othering" infiltrating everyday life. Traditions where Muslims once actively participated, such as crafting effigies for Hindu festivals or supporting pilgrimages like the Kumbh Mela, have seen calls for their exclusion.

 

Rewriting History: The Erasure of Muslim Contributions

The cultural marginalization of Muslims extends to linguistic and symbolic domains. Persian-derived terms are being replaced with Sanskritized alternatives, a calculated move to diminish India’s Islamic heritage. Such efforts echo the concerns of scholars like Amrita Basu, who argue that Hindutva’s agenda has evolved from militant activism to cultural domination, reshaping India’s collective memory.

 

The Politics of Polarization: From Congress to BJP

The communal divide in India predates the BJP’s rise. The 1984 anti-Sikh riots under Congress exposed the party’s failure to uphold secular principles, paving the way for the BJP’s Hindutva-driven politics. Under BJP rule, policies like the abrogation of Article 370, the construction of the Ram Temple, and the push for a Uniform Civil Code have institutionalized the shift away from secularism. These measures signal a deliberate reorientation of India’s identity, aligning it more closely with majoritarian ideals.

 

 Is India Embracing the Two-Nation Theory?

Ironically, the trajectory of modern Indian politics seems to lend credence to the two-nation theory—a philosophy that argued Hindus and Muslims could not coexist within a single nation. While Muhammad Ali Jinnah was once criticized for his divisive vision, today’s India appears to echo the same principles, fostering exclusion and alienation. By marginalising minorities and promoting religious hegemony, India risks further fracturing its social fabric. Whether this is a temporary phase or an irreversible shift remains a question of profound significance.

 

A Secular Future or a Religious State?

India’s transition from a secular ideal to a polarised reality presents a stark challenge to its pluralistic heritage. While the resurgence of religious nationalism threatens to redefine the nation’s identity, history offers a glimmer of hope. India has always thrived on its diversity, and reclaiming its secular ethos requires a collective effort to reject divisive narratives and uphold constitutional principles. The future of India’s secular identity depends on whether its leaders and citizens can rise above sectarianism and reaffirm the pluralism that has long been its hallmark. Whether this period of polarisation is a passing tremor or a seismic shift will ultimately define the nation's legacy.

Pakistan Stock Market Achieves 1 Lac Historic Milestone

What It Means for the Economy

Introduction
For the first time in history, Pakistan's stock market has crossed the monumental milestone of 100,000 points on the KSE-100 Index.

This remarkable achievement is not just a number; it represents a significant turning point for the country's economic trajectory. From a closing level of 62,500 points at the end of last year to an unprecedented rise of 37,000 points in just 11 months, the stock market's performance has been nothing short of extraordinary. But what’s driving this surge, and how does it impact the common citizen and the broader economy? Let’s explore.

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Understanding the KSE-100 Index

The KSE-100 Index is a benchmark indicator of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), representing the performance of the top 100 listed companies. These companies span various sectors, from pharmaceuticals and automobiles to fertilizers and banking. The movement in the index is a direct reflection of changes in the share prices of these companies.

In simpler terms, the recent surge to 100,000 points signifies a consistent increase in the stock prices of these leading companies. For instance:

• Sazgar Engineering: Its share price skyrocketed from PKR 169 in November 2023 to over PKR 1,100, largely driven by the successful launch of Pakistan’s first hybrid SUV.
• GlaxoSmithKline (Pharmaceuticals): Shares jumped from PKR 82 to PKR 350, owing to falling raw material costs globally and higher medicine prices locally.
• Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim: A share price leap from PKR 18 to PKR 80, According to Farhan Mahmood, Head of Research at Sherman Securities, the reason for the increase in the share price of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim was its merger with Fauji Fertilizer Company. The second reason was the increase in urea prices in the country, the third reason was the lack of an increase in gas prices, while the government had increased the price of gas for other fertilizer companies. This led to good sales of the company's urea and they got a good price for it, which led to an increase in its share price.
• Honda Atlas: Demand for motorcycles pushed its shares from PKR 300 to PKR 860, reflecting the resilience of Pakistan’s automotive sector.

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What’s Driving the Stock Market Rally?

1.    Economic Recovery
After years of stagnation and economic challenges, Pakistan’s economy is now showing signs of recovery. Reduced current account deficits, a stabilized exchange rate, and an improved IMF program have boosted investor confidence.

2.    Lower Interest Rates
With interest rates easing after a prolonged period of high levels, capital is flowing back into the stock market, offering attractive investment opportunities compared to other sectors.

3.    Real Estate Slowdown
Uncertainty and heavy taxation in the real estate sector have diverted investments to the stock market, creating fresh liquidity.

4.    Policy Reforms
Judicial and administrative reforms, along with clarity on key appointments, have restored confidence in governance, encouraging both local and foreign investors.

5.    The IMF program lifted the clouds of economic crisis looming over the country.

6.    The current account deficit decreased and the exchange rate stabilized.

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What Does This Mean for the Common Citizen?

While the stock market’s rally might not directly impact every individual, its ripple effects can benefit the broader economy:

• Corporate Growth
  Companies experiencing higher revenues are more likely to reinvest, expand production, and create jobs. This contributes to economic growth, indirectly benefiting the average citizen.
• Profit Sharing
  Shareholders, including small investors, gain through dividends and bonuses when companies perform well. However, Pakistan’s investor base of 350,000 remains small relative to its population of 250 million.
• Economic Indicator
  The stock market serves as a barometer for economic health. A thriving market signals improving economic conditions, which can attract foreign investment and create opportunities in multiple sectors.

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Challenges and Opportunities

While the recent rally is a positive sign, challenges remain. The stock market's growth must translate into broader economic benefits to ensure sustainable development. This requires:

• Encouraging Retail Investment
  Expanding the investor base through financial literacy programs and simplified processes.
• Economic Diversification
  Reducing reliance on a few sectors and promoting industries like technology and renewable energy.
• Policy Stability
  Maintaining investor confidence through consistent and transparent policies.

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Ahead of Milestone

The unprecedented rise of the Pakistan Stock Market to 100,000 points is a testament to the resilience of the economy and the potential for growth. While challenges remain, this milestone underscores the importance of long-term economic planning and market reforms.

For investors, this is a golden opportunity to be part of Pakistan’s economic resurgence. And for policymakers, it’s a reminder that a thriving stock market must also translate into tangible benefits for the common citizen.

How to Begin Investing in the Stock Market: A Comprehensive Guide

Unlocking Wealth through Strategic Stock Market Investments

Entering the stock market can seem like navigating a labyrinth filled with uncertainties and potential pitfalls. However, with informed strategies and prudent decision-making, investing in the stock market can be a pathway to substantial long-term wealth. This guide elucidates the fundamental principles of stock market investment, offering actionable insights to help you embark on your investment journey with confidence and clarity.

Understanding the Essentials of Stock Market Investment

Investing in the stock market is inherently unpredictable; no forecast can guarantee absolute certainty. Nevertheless, selecting robust companies can yield significant wealth over the long term. Mastery of two critical aspects is essential:

1. What to Buy: Identifying high-quality stocks is paramount.

2. When to Buy and Sell: Timing your investments strategically can maximize returns.

Selecting the Right Stocks

If you are not deeply versed in stock market intricacies or exchange-traded funds (ETFs), it is advisable to start with a selection of five to ten companies that offer dividends, bonuses, and capital gains. For instance:

1. Food Sector: Companies like Colgate, National Foods, and others provide consistent dividends. Mari Petroleum offers quarterly dividends, showcasing reliability.

2. Automobile Sector: Multan Tractor stands out by delivering bonuses, dividends, and capital gains.

3. Fertilizer Sector: Fauji Fertilizer, Engro Corporation, and Engro Food provide bi-annual or tri-annual dividends, demonstrating stability.

4. Power Sector: Hubco is renowned for its generous dividend payouts.

5. Banking Sector: Banks such as Meezan, Faysal, United Bank Limited (UBL), and MCB offer attractive dividends, reinforcing their market strength.

Building a Diversified Portfolio

Creating a diversified portfolio involves selecting a mix of companies across various sectors to mitigate risk and enhance potential returns. Here’s a sample portfolio structure:

1. COLG (Colgate)

2. NATF (National Foods)

3. MUREB (Mari Petroleum)

4. MTL (Multan Tractor)

5. FFC (Fauji Fertilizer Company)

6. ENGRO (Engro Corporation)

7. EFERT (Engro Fertilizers)

8. HUBC (Hubco)

9. MEZL (Meezan Bank)

10. MCB (MCB Bank)

11. UBL (United Bank Limited)

12. FABL (Faysal Bank Limited)

Begin by selectively investing in these companies, exercising caution initially. As you gain understanding and confidence, you can expand your investments into more substantial and long-term holdings. Patience is crucial; the stock market demands resilience, and reacting hastily to daily fluctuations can be detrimental to your investment strategy.

Is Now the Optimal Time to Invest in the Pakistan Stock Exchange?

Prospective investors should approach the stock market with careful consideration and strategic planning. A surge in new broker accounts—exceeding one hundred thousand in the past year—contrasts sharply with the mere 250,000 account holders over the previous seventy-five years. While many new investors may celebrate their entry today, a significant number may regret their decisions in the near future due to a lack of foundational knowledge.

Investing without adequate understanding is akin to jumping into a river without knowing how to swim—only a miracle can prevent disaster. Therefore, it is imperative to educate oneself thoroughly before committing substantial capital to the stock market.

The Future Trajectory of the Pakistan Stock Exchange

Market crashes are typically precipitated by significant global or domestic events, such as economic recessions, wars impacting Pakistan, pandemics, internal unrest, rising interest rates affecting businesses, inflation, default risks, and loss of confidence in international agreements like those with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the absence of such catalysts, the Pakistani market is unlikely to crash outright but may experience periodic corrections. Sudden market upswings are often followed by corrections of three to four thousand points, presenting opportunities for new investors to enter the market. Understanding these dynamics can help investors navigate market fluctuations with greater assurance and strategic insight.

Conclusion

Investing in the stock market requires a blend of informed decision-making, strategic selection of reliable companies, and patience. By focusing on companies that offer dividends, bonuses, and capital gains, and by understanding market dynamics, investors can build a robust portfolio that stands the test of time. Remember, the stock market rewards patience and informed strategies over impulsive decisions. Start cautiously, educate yourself continuously, and let your investments grow steadily.

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Learn how to start investing in the stock market with strategic tips on selecting reliable companies, timing your investments, and building a diversified portfolio for long-term wealth.

The November 26 tragedy and the future of PTI?

What does the future hold for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)? 

After the failure of the Mission D Chowk on November 24, PTI appears to be in trouble. Externally, there is criticism, but internally, the party is facing severe disagreements. Although from the very first day, the party has not been an ideal organisation. 

Since Imran Khan went to jail, the party has been lacking central leadership. Imran Khan does not appoint a strong leader for the party’s leadership, fearing that the party might be hijacked; however, this parallel loss is affecting the party organisation and operations. 

Barrister Gohar is the chairman in name, but in practice, Ali Amin Gandapur seemed to lead the protest politics. However, his sudden absence during the October protest made his leadership questionable, especially in the eyes of the workers. 

Bushra Bibi's Political Gamble

In this context, Bushra Bibi makes her entry into protest politics. Bushra Bibi, who holds no official position in the party and has no practical experience in this field, announced Mission D Chowk. It should be noted that this was her very first rally, and she set a target that even seasoned leaders would think twice before attempting. 

Furthermore, the senior leadership of the party was certainly not in agreement with the decision to go to D-Chowk. Nevertheless, Bushra Bibi made the Do or Die decision to go solo. She entered Islamabad and left political analysts baffled. This worried the PMLN and their allies, who began to fear that there might be a deal behind it. 

However, then on the night of November 26, something happened that should not have happened in a democratic country. First, there were reports of the martyrdom of security personnel during the protest rally, and then there were reports of a crackdown on political workers in the dark of night. Both sides are claiming their own factual figures. But whatever happened, the loss on both sides actually costs Pakistan and human lives.

Missed Opportunities and Strategic Missteps

Now, two scenarios come to mind that could have averted this tragedy. 

Firstly, if the High Court had imposed restrictions on the D-Chowk protest, PTI should have complied and recorded the protest in Sangjani. 

Secondly, once they had entered Islamabad, which was indeed a significant achievement amidst such severe blockades, Bushra Bibi should have cashed in on that success and announced the end of the protest considering the safety of her workers in a potential fatal clash. However, due to her inexperience, Bushra Bibi failed to understand the situation and clashed with the state. She taken an oath from the activists to sit at D-Chowk until Khan's release, but when crackdown started, she was first who ran from Mission D Chowk. The emotional and charged workers tried to stop her, but she left them astonished &  alone and ran away. It is so embarrassing for party and political workers. It seems that Bushra Bibi has carried out a suicide attack on her party, and has put a stop to PTI movements for the time being. PTI workers were already unhappy with the party leadership, now after this incident their trust may have been lost. Now it may not be possible to re-mobilize them, until Imran Khan himself leads them.

Expert Opinions on PTI's Path Forward

Political circles in Pakistan are trying to find an answer to the question of what strategy Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf will adopt for the release of its leader Imran Khan after the end of protests in Islamabad. 

One perception is that there is no good news for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the future. The establishment is not with it, the media is blacking out its news, while the parliament and its legislation are also not in favor of the party. Similarly, social media is also under restrictions. 

Alongside, there are disagreements within the party, and new cases are being filed. There is also no possibility of dialogue with political parties, so currently, there does not seem to be any hope for success. 

On the other hand, the opinion is that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is still continuing its struggle despite "intense repression and injustices," and a large number of the public supports it, with voices being raised for it internationally. Many prominent lawyers are with this party, and Imran Khan is also receiving bail from the courts. 

The alleged perpetrators of May 9 have not yet been punished. Considering the difficulties the establishment is facing in various regions including Balochistan and KP, it will not be easy for them to escalate tensions with PTI and fight on all fronts. Therefore, it is also possible that they may be forced to open the doors for reconciliation with PTI.

Is Bush qualified to lead?

Analyst Hamid Mir says that Bushra Bibi had proved that she could carry forward the party affairs bravely by entering Islamabad's D-Chowk against the opinion of the entire party leadership, but she went back from D-Chowk and axed herself to her feet.

Analyst Imtiaz Alam says that Bushra Bibi's role does not form in the party, "Taking party leaders hostage by her, was not liked in the party.

Analyst Dr Hasan Askari says that the PTI always used to taunt other parties with nepotism and dynastic politics, "If the PTI is also taken over by Bibi, then what will be the difference between it and other parties? At present, the party is in trouble and its problems are too many.

Was November 26 a victory for the state and a defeat for the political party?

First of all, in a democratic country, this 26th night operation should not be happened against public. This cannot be the behavior of a democratic government. Any Govt official can say that it established the writ of the government and strengthened the stability of the country. But, on the other hand, you also established the tradition that the opposition will be controlled like this. Instead of solving the problems through dialogue. Hatred will be increased by suppressing them with force.

The government should not be happy to consider this as its success, nor should it promote the trend of using force against the political party by thinking that they have now dominated the opponents. It's too much now. It would be difficult to underestimate the distrust people have against state policies and the state itself. In view of the strenuous efforts made by the state to stop the protests, it can be asked whether it would be right to consider it a success of the state after paying such a heavy price.

Has the political crisis been averted?

The government has successfully suppressed the political unrest in the federal capital and is enjoying victory; however, it should be noted that the political crisis has only been suppressed temporarily; it has not completely ended. The authorities should be concerned about its permanent solution. Because the use of force is not a guarantee of permanent peace. Rather, the next time the crisis may be more complex due to the use of the force. Therefore, the only everlasting solution is negotiations with all stakeholders.

PTI’s Current Reality

On the other hand, PTI should also have to learn from this. They should acknowledge that "Revolutions" are not as easy. Instead of successive failed protest attempts, they should focus on organising their party and developing an effective strategy. They should also be continued a serious dialogue process, along with the protests,  to prove a mature political approach. Otherwise, they will never successful and they will not only harm themselves but also the country. They should have to wage a political struggle within the framework of the law and the state. If there is a state, there will be politics.

Is This Time, Call for Reconciliation

The state also has to become a mother, understand its responsible role. Meanwhile the state is facing terrorist acts on different fronts, the state should take all the stakeholders into confidence and establish central unity. But such acts like 26th will only increase hatred and inter-provincial distrust.

Finally, the question "When will the state become like a mother?

The concept of an Islamic state evolves in response to situational dynamics and the complexities of power politics

The Evolution and Decline of Islamic States: Lessons from History

The evolution of states from ancient times to the Islamic era reveals a complex interplay of power, governance, and culture. From the early Bronze Age city-states to the vast empires of the Islamic caliphates, the journey of statecraft is a testament to the dynamic forces of conquest, integration, and decline.

The Formation of Early States

The institution of the state emerged as a mechanism to organize societies. Early states featured a ruling class with power and privilege, often supported by the taxes of the common people. Two types of states evolved during these times:

1.    Territorial States: These remained confined to their geographical boundaries, developing unique cultures and civilizations.

2.    Expansionist States: Powered by military prowess and natural resources, these states expanded through conquests, often plundering wealth and enslaving populations.

Alongside these were nomadic tribes, organized under their own customs. These groups frequently clashed with established states, either destroying them or assimilating into their civilizations.

The Islamic State and Its Transformations

Islamic states brought a new dimension to governance, blending religious identity with political authority. The Umayyad Caliphate established an Arab-centric rule, as Ibn Khaldun described through the concept of ‘Asabiyyah (group solidarity). Despite the conversion of many Persians to Islam, social hierarchies persisted, leaving non-Arabs with limited status.

The Abbasid revolution, primarily led by Persian Muslims, disrupted this dynamic. The Abbasid Caliphate introduced a more inclusive structure, granting equality to Arabs and Persians. The Persians, with their Sassanian heritage, significantly influenced Abbasid administration, introducing bureaucratic practices and court rituals reminiscent of the Sassanid Empire.

Cultural Flourishing Under the Abbasids

Under the Abbasids, especially after the capital moved to Baghdad, a vibrant cultural and intellectual era unfolded. Persian traditions like Nowruz, music, poetry, and storytelling flourished. The Abbasid court became a hub for poets, historians, and philosophers. Families like the Barmakids, who had Buddhist roots but later converted to Islam, played a pivotal role in embedding Persian culture into the Islamic framework.

However, the luxurious lifestyle of the ruling class came at a cost. Heavy taxation on the populace funded opulent courts, but the economic sustainability of the empire faltered. States cannot thrive on plunder or unearned wealth indefinitely. When rulers lose their moral and ethical compass, their authority weakens, leading to political fragmentation.

The Rise of Military Dominance

As internal conflicts destabilised the Abbasids, Central Asian Turkic slaves (Mamluks) were brought in as military elites. Initially loyal to the caliph, these groups eventually amassed enough power to dominate state institutions, appoint caliphs, and establish their own dynasties. The decentralization of power was evident by the 9th century, as various regions like Persia, Egypt, and Andalusia splintered into independent states.

The Decline of the Caliphate

By the mid-13th century, the once-mighty Abbasid Caliphate crumbled. The Mongol invasion under Hulagu Khan in 1258 marked the end of Baghdad’s dominance. The Islamic world fractured into smaller dynasties and sultanates, many of which fell under European colonial rule in later centuries.

Lessons for Modern States

The history of Islamic states offers critical insights into governance:

1.    Economic Independence: Sustainable states require robust internal economies rather than reliance on conquest or external wealth.

2.    Equitable Governance: Exclusionary policies lead to rebellion and division. Inclusive governance fosters unity and stability.

3.    Cultural Integration: Embracing diverse cultural contributions can enrich societies but requires careful balance to avoid alienation.

4.    Ethical Leadership: Corruption and moral decay among leaders erode trust and weaken the foundations of the state.

Today, many Islamic states face challenges rooted in these historical patterns. Poverty, lack of democratic rights, and external interference hinder their progress. Understanding and addressing these lessons can help modern states navigate a path toward stability, equity, and prosperity.

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This narrative connects historical events to present-day challenges, offering a comprehensive perspective for readers seeking to understand the intricate history of Islamic states.

 

Donald Trump: The Iron Man or "The Paradox President"

Donald Trump: From the Colorful Billionaire to a Controversial Comeback

Donald Trump’s journey from a flamboyant New York businessman to a polarizing political figure is one of the most talked-about sagas in modern American history. Born into wealth as the fourth child of Fred Trump, a real estate magnate, Trump’s life has been marked by controversy, ambition, and reinvention.

Early Life and Education

Raised in Queens, New York, Donald Trump’s youth was far from conventional. Despite his family's affluence, his father emphasized discipline. At 13, after finding a knife in young Donald's possession, Fred Trump enrolled him in military school, seeking to instill structure and responsibility.

Trump excelled as a baseball captain and was recognized for his tidiness and orderliness. However, he struggled with forming close friendships—a foreshadowing, perhaps, of his solitary rise to power.

After graduating in 1964, Trump flirted with the idea of attending film school, influenced by Hollywood’s glamour. However, he pursued a more traditional path, enrolling at Fordham University before transferring to the prestigious Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.

From Real Estate Heir to Business Mogul

After graduating, Trump became his father’s favored child to take over the family business, edging out his elder brother, Fred Jr., who pursued a career as a pilot but tragically succumbed to alcoholism at 43. Fred Jr.’s death left a profound impact on Donald, who claims it motivated his lifelong avoidance of alcohol and smoking.

Trump began his business career with a $1 million loan from his father, a modest sum by family standards. Under his leadership, the Trump Organization expanded from constructing residential properties in Brooklyn and Queens to undertaking ambitious projects in Manhattan.

Notable achievements included transforming the crumbling Commodore Hotel into the Grand Hyatt and erecting Trump Tower, a 68-story architectural landmark on Fifth Avenue. Over time, the Trump name became synonymous with luxury, emblazoned on properties worldwide, including Mumbai, Istanbul, and Manila.

A Foray into Entertainment and Celebrity

Trump’s ambitions extended beyond real estate. From 1996 to 2015, he owned the Miss Universe, Miss USA, and Miss Teen USA pageants. He also became a pop culture figure, thanks to his role as the host of The Apprentice, a reality show that reinforced his public image as a decisive and successful leader.

His personal life, however, mirrored his larger-than-life persona. Married three times, his first wife, Ivana Trump, a Czech model, and athlete, gained the most public attention. The couple had three children: Donald Jr., Ivanka, and Eric. Their tumultuous divorce in 1990, fueled by allegations of Trump’s infidelity, dominated tabloids and tarnished his image temporarily.

Political Aspirations and the 2016 Presidential Campaign

While Trump publicly dismissed politics as a “dirty business” in a 1980 interview, he flirted with the idea of running for office as early as 1987. By 2015, his political ambitions crystalized when he announced his candidacy for the presidency, declaring, “The American dream is dead, but I will bring it back.”

Trump’s campaign combined populist rhetoric with controversial statements. He promised to “Make America Great Again” and criticized immigration policies, particularly targeting Mexico. Despite numerous scandals—including a leaked audio tape where he bragged about sexual misconduct—Trump defied pollsters and pundits by defeating seasoned politician Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

 

The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: A Retrospective Analysis 

The 2020 U.S. Presidential election marked a significant moment in modern history. Former President Donald J. Trump garnered over 74 million votes, a record-breaking number for any sitting U.S. president. Yet, he was defeated by President Joe Biden, who surpassed him by over 7 million votes. Following the election, Trump launched a relentless campaign claiming widespread electoral fraud—a claim that failed in over 60 legal cases. 

The January 6 Capitol Hill riot seemed to seal Trump’s political fate, with many of his supporters and donors withdrawing their backing, leaving him politically isolated. However, in a dramatic turn of events, Trump announced his bid for re-election. Despite facing 91 legal cases, including four criminal charges, Trump’s political machinery gained momentum, overshadowing other contenders within the Republican Party. His legal strategy of delay proved successful in stalling significant repercussions. 

 

How Did Trump Return to the White House? 

In a political landscape defined by polarization, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign lacked a coherent, compelling policy narrative. Meanwhile, Trump pursued a straightforward yet robust agenda that resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. 

Love him or loathe him, Trump’s return to the presidency came unimpeded. Election analysts and critics found themselves grappling with an undeniable reality: Trump had secured another four years of leadership, reshaping America’s political trajectory. 

 

Economic Frustrations: The Deciding Factor 

One cannot overlook the economy's role in Trump’s victory. The famous political adage, “It’s the economy, stupid,” aptly explains the outcome. With inflation eroding purchasing power and fuel prices skyrocketing, voters were drawn to Trump’s promise of economic stability. While the Biden-Harris administration made strides in job creation and reducing inflation, rising living costs—especially housing—overshadowed these achievements. 

Trump skillfully exploited these economic grievances, presenting a protectionist vision to restore prosperity. His messaging, though rife with misinformation, struck a chord. Harris, on the other hand, struggled to counteract Trump’s narratives, leaving critical voter bases, such as Latino and Black men, vulnerable to Trump’s appeal. 

 

A Populist Narrative 

Trump’s campaign didn’t stop at economic issues; it delved into cultural anxieties, immigration fears, and identity politics. His rhetoric, though controversial, galvanized his base. Misinformation spread through platforms like X (formerly Twitter), exacerbating divisions. Tech magnates like Elon Musk played a questionable role in managing this digital chaos, allowing falsehoods to thrive unchecked. 

 

Domestic and Global Implications of Trump’s Presidency 

• Domestic Challenges 

Trump’s second term poses stark challenges for America’s democratic institutions. His policies threaten to erode civil liberties, voter rights, and judicial impartiality. The potential for authoritarian measures, such as restrictive immigration policies and censorship, looms large. 

Social issues, including women’s reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ protections, are also under threat. With the Supreme Court’s conservative tilt, these freedoms face rollback. Economically, Trump’s policies, characterized by tariffs and Federal Reserve interventions, may aggravate inflation and weaken the U.S. dollar. 

 

• Global Ramifications 

On the global stage, Trump’s protectionist stance could destabilize trade relationships, leading to economic downturns. His willingness to appease adversaries like Vladimir Putin while alienating NATO allies jeopardizes Western unity. The situation in Ukraine, for instance, could see a significant strategic shift, emboldening Russia’s expansionist ambitions. 

In the Middle East, Trump’s alignment with leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu could exacerbate regional tensions, potentially igniting proxy wars with Iran. Relations with China would likely deteriorate further, increasing risks of conflict in the Asia-Pacific. 

Climate change—a critical issue—remains largely ignored in Trump’s agenda. This neglect could reverse progress on global climate agreements, compounding environmental crises worldwide. 

 

The Broader Consequences 

Trump’s resurgence symbolizes the erosion of democratic norms and the rise of nationalism and populism. His policies may yield short-term gains but threaten long-term stability, both domestically and internationally. As America veers towards isolationism, its global influence diminishes, leaving a void that adversarial powers may exploit. 

For the world, Trump’s return signals turbulent times. With weakened alliances, trade wars, and increasing authoritarianism, the global order faces unprecedented challenges. For Americans, the choice they’ve made may lead to deeper political, economic, and social divides. 

The 2020 election was more than a contest of votes—it was a reflection of societal rifts, economic discontent, and the enduring allure of populist rhetoric. As Trump reclaims the White House, the implications of this decision will reverberate far beyond U.S. borders, shaping the future of democracy itself.