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Thursday, January 11, 2024

The History and Methods of Electoral Manipulation in Pakistan

Dirty Elections

Whether we speak of democracy or elections, the roots of both concepts trace back to ancient Greece and Rome. The word “democracy” itself is derived from two Greek words: "demos," meaning people, and "kratos," meaning power—thus, "the power of the people." It is widely acknowledged that the early model of democracy originated from the Greek civilization.

Elections also find their earliest expression in ancient Greece and Rome. Athens, for instance, was a democratic state, where electoral reforms were established on democratic principles. Much of this credit goes to Cleisthenes, a lawmaker from ancient Athens, who laid the foundation of Athenian democracy around the 5th century BCE. Under his reforms, all male citizens of the state were granted the right to vote. For this reason, historians have bestowed Cleisthenes with the title of "The Father of Democracy."

Similarly, in medieval Bengal, during the Pala dynasty, Emperor Gopala was elected through a formal voting process in the 8th century CE. The 17th century saw the rise of elections in Europe, followed by North America in the 18th century. However, even within these democratic systems, women were denied the right to vote until the 20th century. Women fought long and hard to secure this fundamental human right.

The Evolution of Voting in the Indian Subcontinent

In the Indian subcontinent, the concept of governance by consensus predates formal voting systems. The Panchayat system, prevalent from around 500 BCE during the Mauryan era, functioned without formal voting, but the community’s acceptance was crucial for the Panchayat's legitimacy.

For thousands of years, the subcontinent was governed by monarchies, feudal states, and princely systems. Afterward, the East India Company ruled, and following the 1857 War of Independence, Britain formally made India its colony.

It wasn’t until 1909, with the introduction of the Indian Councils Act, that the British Parliament granted limited electoral rights to the local population. This Act is known as the "Minto-Morley Reforms," named after Lord Minto, the Governor-General of India, and Lord Morley, the Secretary of State for India. The democratic systems we see today in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh have their roots in these British reforms. The elections held in 1920 were the first where limited voting rights were granted to the Indian people, but suffrage was restricted to property owners and tax-paying citizens.

The Birth of Pakistan and Early Electoral History

When Pakistan gained independence in 1947, it did not have a constitution of its own. To address this, the Government of India Act 1935 was amended and adopted as the interim constitution. Before Pakistan’s independence, Lord Mountbatten issued an order on July 26, 1947, establishing the new Constituent Assembly of Pakistan. This assembly, composed of members elected in 1945 from areas becoming part of Pakistan, became responsible for drafting the nation's constitution.

The assembly's inaugural session took place on August 10, 1947, in Karachi, and Jogendra Nath Mandal was elected as the temporary president. This assembly was tasked with drafting Pakistan’s new constitution, while the 1935 Act served as the provisional legal framework.

On March 12, 1949, Pakistan’s Constituent Assembly adopted the Objectives Resolution, a foundational document for the future constitution. It laid the groundwork for an Islamic democratic state, diverging from the European-style democratic systems. In 1985, under General Zia-ul-Haq's rule, the Objectives Resolution was incorporated into the Pakistani Constitution through the 8th Amendment, giving it formal legal status.

Electoral Fraud in Pakistan: A Recurring Theme

Historically, electoral fraud has occurred at various levels in Pakistan, often involving state institutions, the establishment, polling officers, and political parties. In fact, allegations of election manipulation surfaced soon after the creation of Pakistan. One notable case occurred in Sindh’s Dadu district, where the electoral contest between G.M. Syed and Qazi Muhammad Akbar was marred by accusations of rigging.

Between 1947 and 1958, Pakistan did not hold direct national elections, though sporadic provincial elections were held, but their credibility was often called into question. For instance, in 1951, Punjab held its first elections, but with voter turnout below 30%, the legitimacy of the process was dubious.

In the same year, Major General Akbar Khan attempted a failed coup against the elected government, marking the first conspiracy against civilian rule. These early years were marked by political engineering, leading to manipulated outcomes in both provincial and national assemblies.

The Ayub Era: Controlled Democracy

In 1958, General Ayub Khan seized power, suspending the constitution and imposing martial law. Ayub Khan’s regime is infamous for introducing "controlled democracy." In 1960, he held a national referendum, receiving 95.6% approval, which paved the way for his continued rule. He introduced a new constitution in 1962, establishing a presidential system of governance.

During his tenure, elections were held in 1962 and 1965, but voters did not directly elect members of parliament. Instead, representatives of local councils were responsible for electing parliamentarians. In the 1965 elections, Ayub Khan faced opposition from Fatima Jinnah, but allegations of electoral manipulation marred the process. The opposition accused the government of widespread intimidation, manipulation, and control over the election process.

The 1970 Elections: A Moment of Transparency

The first general elections based on direct adult suffrage in Pakistan were held in 1970. Intelligence agencies had assured General Yahya Khan that no single political party would win a majority, ensuring that he would remain the central figure of power. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of the Awami League could only field seven candidates from West Pakistan, while Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan People's Party (PPP) could not secure even a single candidate in East Pakistan. The 1970 elections are widely regarded as the most transparent and impartial elections in Pakistan’s history. However, the post-election manipulation became evident when the majority-winning Awami League was denied the transfer of power, leading to the country’s eventual disintegration. Despite the tragic outcome—the division of Pakistan—no one has ever questioned the fairness of those elections, which are still considered the most transparent in the nation's history.

The third Constitution of Pakistan was promulgated on August 14, 1973, and on the same day, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto took oath as Prime Minister under this new framework. The Constitution introduced a bicameral system, establishing the Parliament with an upper house (Senate) and a lower house (National Assembly). It declared Islam as the state religion and officially named the country the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

After the fall of Dhaka, the newly formed National Assembly was scheduled to complete its term by 1978. However, consumed by his growing popularity, Bhutto dissolved the assembly a year early and called for general elections in 1977. While he likely would have won even without interference, the elections were marred by allegations of severe rigging. The term "jharloo" (meaning rigged or fraudulent) became synonymous with the 1977 elections. The Pakistan National Alliance (PNA) refused to participate in elections in Balochistan, citing the ongoing military operations in the province, and later boycotted the provincial elections, accusing the government of massive electoral fraud. This led to widespread protests, particularly in urban areas, with violence escalating rapidly. By early July, a compromise between the PNA and Bhutto's government had been reached, agreeing to fresh elections under a neutral caretaker government in October. But on July 5, 1977, General Zia-ul-Haq imposed martial law.

In September 1977, Bhutto was arrested on charges of ordering the murder of Nawab Mohammad Ahmad Khan. On March 18, 1978, the Lahore High Court sentenced him to death, a decision upheld by the Supreme Court on February 6, 1979. On April 4, 1979, Bhutto was executed in Rawalpindi Jail.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto served as Prime Minister for 3 years, 10 months, and 21 days.

Reflecting on the 1977 elections, the then-Chief Election Commissioner, Justice Sajjad Ahmad Jan (father of Wasim Sajjad), remarked that the ruling party's candidates had severely undermined the electoral process through the reckless use of their authority and state machinery.

General Zia-ul-Haq:

In 1979, General Zia-ul-Haq imposed a ban on all political parties, marking the beginning of an era in which he wielded unchecked authority. By 1981, he had established the Majlis-e-Shura, becoming the ultimate decision-maker in Pakistan’s political landscape.

That same year, local elections were conducted under the supervision of the military, but the political climate was already tense following the controversial execution of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) chairman, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, on April 4, 1979. Despite Bhutto’s death, the PPP's underground leadership formed groups under the name "Awami Dost" to resist Zia's autocratic rule and his skewed vision of democracy. Surprisingly, candidates aligned with Zia suffered a humiliating defeat in the local elections, prompting him to nullify the results under a special Martial Law order.

In the 1983 local elections, Zia tightened his control by scrutinizing each candidate. Under direct orders, returning officers disqualified any nominee suspected of having ties to the PPP, ensuring that opposition voices were systematically silenced.

Zia had initially promised to transfer power to the people within 90 days, but he repeatedly postponed general elections, citing the need to create an electoral environment that would yield "positive" results and produce compliant representatives. In December 1984, he extended his presidency for five more years through a controversial referendum, which opposition alliances like the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD) urged the public to boycott. As poet Habib Jalib famously remarked about the eerie stillness on the day of the referendum:
"The city was silent—was it the jinn or the referendum?"

Despite widespread calls for a boycott, the Election Commission in Islamabad reported that over 90% of the votes cast were in Zia’s favor.

In February 1985, under Zia's directives, non-party-based elections were held, and despite the opposition boycott, the elections were relatively transparent. These elections laid the groundwork for Pakistan’s "electables" and the culture of clan-based politics, which would continue to shape the country’s political landscape. However, by May 29, 1988, Zia dissolved the National Assembly and dismissed the government of Prime Minister Mohammad Khan Junejo.

Zia remained in power for 11 years, and his legacy is marked by the rise of extremist ideologies that overshadowed Pakistan’s previous commitment to tolerance and pluralism. His reign ended abruptly when he died in a mysterious plane crash on August 17, 1988.

Following Zia's death, Pakistan's political landscape shifted. The 1988 general elections, initially planned as non-party elections by Zia, instead restored the country to the path of democracy. On November 16 and 19, 1988, elections were held for the National and Provincial Assemblies, respectively. Benazir Bhutto, who had returned to Pakistan in April 1986, dominated the political scene and led the PPP to victory, reversing Zia’s 11 years of authoritarian policies. The electoral campaign was relatively peaceful, and on December 4, 1988, Benazir became the first female Prime Minister of a Muslim-majority country, after forming a coalition government with smaller parties and independent groups.

The 1990s and the Rise of Political Manipulation:

By 1990, systematic efforts were made to prevent the PPP from returning to power. General Aslam Beg and General Asad Durrani distributed 140 million rupees from Mehran Bank to PPP’s opposition candidates. As a result, the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI) won 106 seats, while the PPP and its allies in the Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDA) secured only 44 seats.

In early 1993, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attempted to revoke the President's authority to dissolve the National Assembly. In response, President Ghulam Ishaq Khan dissolved the assembly. Fresh elections were held in October 1993, where the PPP won the most seats but fell short of a majority, securing 86 seats compared to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which won 73 seats.

The 1997 general elections are remembered for giving Nawaz Sharif an overwhelming mandate, which many claim was pre-determined. President Farooq Leghari appointed an interim government under Meraj Khalid, consisting largely of Benazir Bhutto’s adversaries. As journalist Najam Sethi later admitted in a televised interview, the interim government’s task was to ensure Sharif's victory. These elections, held on February 3, 1997, saw the PPP reduced to a mere 18 seats.

General Pervez Musharraf and the 2000s:

In 1998, Nawaz Sharif bypassed senior military officials to appoint Pervez Musharraf as Chief of Army Staff. On October 12, 1999, Musharraf overthrew Sharif’s government and established a technocratic administration. Following a controversial referendum in June 2002, Musharraf extended his presidency for five years.

The general elections of October 10, 2002, were conducted under Musharraf’s military regime. The elections introduced a condition requiring candidates to hold a bachelor’s degree, effectively barring many seasoned politicians from contesting. Both the PPP and PML-N faced significant restrictions, with their leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in exile. To navigate these constraints, the PPP ran under the banner of the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP), led by Amin Fahim. Meanwhile, the PML-N splintered into factions, with one side remaining loyal to Sharif, while another aligned with Musharraf, forming the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), known as the "King’s Party." The emergence of PML-Q ended the dominance of the traditional two-party system between the PPP and PML-N.

In the 2008 elections, although only partially free, the victorious party was not allowed to assume power until they guaranteed Musharraf a safe exit. A report by the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) revealed that in 61 constituencies, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of registered voters, with some areas recording voter turnouts as high as 112%.

Electoral Corruption and the Rise of "Electables":

Over time, "electables" became central to Pakistan’s electoral politics. These candidates, often wealthy landlords or individuals with strong community ties, wielded substantial influence within their constituencies, regardless of party affiliation. Their personal vote banks allowed them to switch political loyalties as needed, undermining party-based politics. Zia’s non-party elections and Musharraf’s policies further entrenched this culture, shifting the focus away from ideological politics toward power dynamics dominated by electables.

With such candidates dominating the scene, political parties were forced to nominate electables, who, once elected, pursued personal interests rather than party agendas. As a result, ideological politics faded, giving way to power politics, where the real selection of candidates often rested with non-political forces rather than the electorate.

The Road Ahead – Elections in 2024:

The upcoming 2024 elections appear to be a repeat of past electoral manipulations, albeit with new tools and strategies suited to the modern era. While attempts to stifle dissent seem strong, the growing influence of social media, with over 126 million broadband users, presents a challenge to traditional control mechanisms. Shutting down dissent in an open-source digital environment will be difficult, forcing authorities to rethink their methods of influence.

As new voters register and younger generations become politically active, the shifting dynamics may impact the outcome. In the 2018 elections, for instance, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) saw its vote share rise by 9.2 million, while the PML-N’s votes decreased by 2 million. The impact of these changes will be critical as Pakistan approaches its next general election, where the role of social media and the participation of a young electorate may shape the country’s political future.

In Pakistan’s turbulent political history, no Prime Minister has completed a full five-year term, while four military dictators ruled for an average of eight years each. The constant alternation between democracy and dictatorship has hindered the development of a stable political system, and the upcoming elections will once again test the resilience of Pakistan’s democracy.



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