Iran versus Pakistan, Economic, Local and Military Review

Iran vs. Pakistan: An Examination of Tensions

Historical Background of the Border Dispute

The 900-kilometer border between Pakistan and Iran, known as the Goldsmith Line, was demarcated by Goldsmith in 1871. Along this border live Baloch tribes who do not recognize the boundary, carrying out insurgent activities in both countries. On the Iranian side, a Sunni Baloch minority resides, feeling marginalized by the central government, which they accuse of religious discrimination. The U.S. Counterterrorism Agency notes that groups like Jaish al-Adl advocate for these Baloch rights, further straining relations.

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran and Pakistan were both aligned with the Western bloc. In the 1970s, Iran’s Shah even assisted Pakistan in curbing separatist activities in Balochistan. However, after the revolution, Iran became adversarial to the West, while Pakistan remained aligned with it. Although both countries opposed the Soviet Union during the Afghan jihad, Iran supported the Northern Alliance (predominantly Shiite Hazara) while Pakistan backed the Mujahideen.

Military Capabilities and Economic Strengths

According to the Global Fire Index, Pakistan ranks 9th in military strength while Iran ranks 14th. However, neighboring conflicts are rarely won through military prowess alone. Factors like economic stability, natural resources, technological dependency, strategic location, religious identity, ethnic diversity, and population dynamics also play a crucial role.

Geographically, Iran is twice as large as Pakistan, yet Pakistan has triple the population. Economically, Iran holds an advantage with a robust oil and gas reserve (the world’s second-largest natural gas and third-largest oil reserves), while Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, spending around $17 billion annually. Iran’s export and import revenues are $107 billion and $54 billion, respectively, allowing for financial independence, whereas Pakistan’s trade deficit and external debt create ongoing dependency on international aid from the IMF, the U.S., and Gulf states.

Iran’s identity is rooted in religious zeal and ancient pride. Its 3,200-year-old history saw it as a superpower, rivaling ancient Greece. Notably, Cyrus the Great (550 BCE) and Darius I (who ruled after seizing power in 522 BCE) led Persia as the world’s largest empire, until Alexander the Great defeated King Darius III in 323 BCE.

Iran's Religious Transformation and Influence

Iran’s religious identity evolved significantly over centuries. Before Islam, it was the birthplace of Zoroastrianism, a state religion from the 15th to the 10th century BCE. Following the arrival of Islam, Khalid ibn al-Walid’s victory over the Persian province of Mesopotamia in 633 CE marked the beginning of Islamic influence. In 636 CE, Sa'd ibn Abi Waqqas achieved a decisive victory at the Battle of Qadisiyyah, and by 642, under Caliph Umar’s orders, Muslim forces gradually gained control of Persia.

Currently, 99% of Iran’s population is Muslim, with around 90% identifying as Shia and 9% as Sunni. Iran’s shift to Shiism occurred in the 16th century when Shah Ismail I of the Safavid dynasty enforced Shia Islam, giving Sunnis the ultimatum to convert or face death. His actions led to conflicts with the Ottoman Empire and established a strong Shia identity in Iran.

Modern Iran as a Religious State

The 1979 Islamic Revolution marked Iran’s emergence as a theocratic state. Iran has since engaged in regional ideological influence, including an eight-year war with Iraq. Despite facing Western and Arab support for Iraq, Iran emerged resilient. In contrast, Pakistan, with its Sunni majority (85-90%) and Shia minority (10-15%), experiences sectarian divides, with frequent religious and political tensions. Globally, Pakistan has the second-largest Shia population after Iran, and sectarian violence, notably in the 1990s, highlighted the internal challenges intensified by Iran’s growing influence.

Ethnic Composition in Iran and Pakistan

Iran’s population is composed of various ethnic groups: Persian speakers make up 60-65%, Azeris 15-17%, Kurds 7-10%, Baloch 2%, and Turks 1%. Pakistan, although Punjabi-majority, has an ethnically diverse landscape, creating additional challenges in maintaining national unity.

Current Tensions at the Border

The Baloch region spans both Pakistan (Balochistan) and Iran (Sistan), leading to cross-border accusations. Iran alleges attacks from Pakistani territory, and Pakistan holds similar views. Recently, Iran conducted operations within Pakistani territory, prompting Pakistan to retaliate. Without diplomatic intervention, these events risk escalating into sustained cross-border hostilities, which neither country desires.

Iran's Broader Ambitions

Iran’s recent regional confrontations—such as strikes on Iraq and Syria—raise questions. Some speculate that domestic pressures to support Gaza amidst the Israel conflict have contributed to Iran’s aggression. Additionally, Iran faces strained relations with the U.S. under Biden, who recently issued a warning of potential conflict. The timing of Iran’s actions against Pakistan appears puzzling, suggesting either a miscalculated step or an overreach influenced by internal or regional pressures.

Global Implications

Iran’s support for the Houthi rebels, who target ships in the Red Sea, poses risks to one of the world’s key maritime routes. This path is crucial for trade between East and West, connecting through the Suez Canal. If blocked, ships would need to detour around South Africa, increasing transport time, insurance costs, and, consequently, the price of goods globally.

With inflation already heightened by the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, this instability could further strain economies worldwide. Countries like Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, China, and Japan are particularly keen to avoid further disruptions. The U.S. and the UK have deployed a multinational task force in the Red Sea, reinforcing their naval presence. Western powers, including Israel, could leverage Iran’s unprovoked attack on Pakistan to shift public opinion against Iran, potentially setting the stage for action against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Pakistan's Stance

While Pakistan is reluctant to worsen ties with Iran, ignoring such an incursion could invite further attacks. Unlike Syria, Yemen, or Iraq, Pakistan has previously demonstrated resilience against similar challenges from India, making a strong response likely.

As of recent reports, Pakistan has conducted retaliatory strikes against anti-state elements in Iran’s Sistan region. In military strength, Pakistan remains better positioned than Iran, though it has no desire for prolonged conflict. Diplomacy remains the most viable solution, as an armed escalation would only fuel tensions and external interventions, risking a broader regional conflict.