Donald Trump & Imran Khan

Will Trump Intervene to Secure Imran Khan’s Release? 

As Donald Trump gears up for another presidential run, speculation in Pakistan is heating up: could Trump pressure Islamabad to secure the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan? While this seems far-fetched to many, Trump’s unconventional approach to politics and penchant for the unexpected keep this idea alive. 

 

To analyze this scenario, we must delve into the personalities, shared traits, and political contexts of both leaders, as well as assess the feasibility of Trump’s intervention in such a matter. 

 

The Trump-Imran Parallels 

Both Donald Trump and Imran Khan share a populist appeal, an avowedly anti-establishment ethos, and a preference for nationalist rhetoric. Each has cultivated a fiercely loyal support base by portraying themselves as the guardians of the "true" people against entrenched elites. 

 

Trump’s media savviness and unpredictable demeanor mirror Khan’s charisma and emphasis on sovereignty, independence, and transparency. However, there is a sharp contrast in their current positions. Trump remains a powerful political figure in the U.S., commanding significant influence within the Republican Party and among his supporters. In contrast, Imran Khan faces legal and political challenges in Pakistan, including ongoing imprisonment after falling out with the country’s powerful establishment. 

 

Khan’s detention marks a significant shift in his political fortunes, as he once enjoyed widespread popularity. Could Trump’s maverick diplomacy play a role in reversing Khan’s predicament? 

Imran Khan and Trump: A Shared History  

Trump’s previous interactions with Imran Khan add a layer of intrigue to the speculation. When Trump was president, he welcomed Khan to the White House in 2019, referring to him as a “great friend.” However, analysts like Kugelman argue that this camaraderie was more transactional than personal. The meeting was primarily driven by Trump’s desire to facilitate U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, for which Pakistan’s cooperation was essential.  

This context weakens the argument that Trump has a genuine personal interest in Khan’s political fortunes.

Will Trump Play a Role in Imran Khan’s Release? A Diplomatic Stunt or Political Reality?  

In recent months, as Donald Trump campaigns for a potential return to the White House, speculation has grown in Pakistan’s political circles and on social media. Could Trump, known for his unorthodox diplomacy, pressure Islamabad to secure the release of Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan?  

This speculation was amplified by statements from prominent Pakistani politicians, viral claims on social media, and Trump’s past interactions with Imran Khan. But is there any real substance behind these theories?  

The Origin of Speculation: A Diplomatic Signal or Wishful Thinking?  

The roots of this speculation can be traced back to a May 2024 interview with Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, a senior leader of the Pakistan. He suggested that external pressure, particularly from the U.S., could force the Pakistani government’s hand.  

“Before the U.S. makes a call about this, it’s better to make decisions ourselves,” hinting at the possibility of Trump or other U.S. leaders intervening postelection.  

His statement resonated within political circles and gained traction among Imran Khan’s supporters, further fueling hopes of external intervention.  

Trump’s Alleged Campaign Promises: Fact or Fiction?  

Claims that Trump mentioned Imran Khan in his election campaign or pledged to secure his release have circulated widely on social media. One video purportedly shows Trump making such promises, but upon closer inspection, the audio and visuals do not align, revealing it to be an AI generated fabrication.  

Experts like Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at Foreign Policy, have clarified that Trump has not publicly discussed Imran Khan during his campaign. Kugelman noted that while Khan’s supporters in the Pakistani American diaspora harbor hopes for Trump’s intervention, there has been no indication of such a priority from the former U.S. president.  

Trump’s focus in his social media posts and campaign rhetoric has been on issues like U.S.India relations and human rights abuses in Bangladesh—not Pakistan or Imran Khan.  

Imran Khan’s Rocky Relationship with Democrats  

Under President Joe Biden, relations between Washington and Islamabad cooled significantly. Biden never made direct contact with Imran Khan during his tenure as Pakistan’s prime minister, a pointed snub that underscored strained ties. Khan, in turn, accused the Biden administration of orchestrating his ouster—an allegation dismissed by both Islamabad and Washington.  

Interestingly, 60 Democratic lawmakers wrote to Biden, urging him to address human rights concerns in Pakistan, including the treatment of political detainees like Khan. However, this action was rooted in broader human rights advocacy rather than any specific affinity for Khan.  

Trump’s Diplomatic Style: A Wild Card

Trump’s approach to diplomacy has always been unconventional. His willingness to engage with figures such as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un exemplifies his readiness to act in ways that defy traditional norms. A potential move to advocate for Khan’s release would fit into this pattern, showcasing Trump as a leader unafraid to challenge the status quo. 

 

For Trump, intervening on Khan’s behalf could bolster his image as a global power broker who aligns with populist figures challenging institutional barriers. It would also underline his broader narrative of taking on “deep state” actors, both in the U.S. and abroad. 

 

However, such a move would be fraught with challenges. The complex nature of U.S.-Pakistan relations, alongside Pakistan’s highly intricate power dynamics, makes any external influence a sensitive issue. Pakistani authorities may perceive such an intervention as meddling, further complicating an already strained relationship. 

 

The Pragmatic Case for Intervention 

There is a case for Trump to act. Pakistan’s geopolitical significance in South Asia, coupled with the potential for regional instability, could make Khan’s release a topic of mutual interest. Trump’s business-oriented diplomatic style might lead him to present Khan’s release as a move that could enhance U.S.-Pakistan relations, especially if framed as part of broader efforts to stabilise the region. 

 

Trump’s past interactions with Pakistani leaders could enable private negotiations. This might involve highlighting the advantages of allowing Khan to play a controlled political role rather than deepening divisions within Pakistan. Such discussions could appeal to pragmatic elements within Pakistan’s power structure, emphasizing stability over confrontation. 

 

Trump’s Cabinet and Foreign Policy Priorities  

Should Trump return to power, the composition of his cabinet and his foreign policy priorities will likely shape any potential involvement in Pakistan. His advisors are expected to take a hardline stance against China and Iran while strengthening ties with India. This focus makes it unlikely that Pakistan will feature prominently in Trump’s strategic calculations.  

Supporting Imran Khan could risk alienating India, a key U.S. partner in counterbalancing China’s influence. Given these dynamics, any overt intervention on Khan’s behalf seems improbable.  

Could Imran Khan Be a Wild Card Against China? 

One intriguing angle to consider is whether Trump could see Khan as a counterweight to China’s influence in Pakistan. While this remains speculative, it is not entirely implausible. Using Khan as a "wild card" could align with U.S. strategies to recalibrate influence in South Asia. However, such a strategy would require a level of commitment and finesse that Trump has not always demonstrated in foreign policy. 

 

Could External Intervention Harm Khan Politically?  

Even if Trump were to advocate for Khan’s release, the implications could be mixed. Khan’s opponents have long accused him of being a “Western agent” or pandering to foreign powers. Trump’s involvement might reinforce these narratives, potentially harming Khan’s image as a nationalist leader who champions Pakistan’s sovereignty.  

Does Trump Have the Time or Will?  

Domestically, Trump’s agenda revolves around reshaping America’s global role, with an emphasis on “America First.” This philosophy evaluates every international engagement through the lens of U.S. benefits.  

For Trump, intervening in Khan’s case would require significant political capital and yield uncertain rewards. Moreover, Pakistan’s political and military establishment is unlikely to welcome external pressure, particularly from a figure as polarizing as Trump.  

Barriers to Success 

Despite this, several obstacles remain. 

1. Internal Resistance in Pakistan: The Pakistani establishment is notoriously resistant to external pressure, particularly when it comes to perceived interference in domestic politics. 

2. Trump’s Isolationist Tendencies: While Trump’s “America First” policy might push him toward disengagement, his instinct to challenge norms could counterbalance this tendency. 

3. China’s Role: Given Pakistan’s close ties with China, any U.S. involvement might be viewed with suspicion, further complicating matters. 

Additionally, for Trump, aligning with Khan might not yield immediate or tangible benefits. The stakes for him would be high, with little assurance of a political payoff. 

The Broader Picture  

The prospect of Trump intervening to secure Imran Khan’s release is both compelling and improbable. It highlights the unpredictable intersections of global and domestic politics, where unconventional leaders like Trump and Khan operate. 

 

If Trump were to engage, his involvement could introduce a new dynamic into U.S.-Pakistan relations. However, the likelihood of success would depend on the broader context of U.S. foreign policy priorities, the receptiveness of Pakistani leadership, and the potential for mutual benefit. 

For now, this scenario remains an interesting thought experiment—a reminder of how political brinkmanship can create unexpected possibilities in the world of diplomacy.

Ultimately, the idea of Trump playing a decisive role in Imran Khan’s release is rooted more in hope than reality. While Trump’s history of unorthodox diplomacy keeps the possibility alive, the complexities of U.S.Pakistan relations and Trump’s own priorities make such an intervention unlikely.  

The key questions remain:  

• Would Trump see any strategic benefit in intervening for Khan?  

• Could Pakistan’s government or establishment accept such intervention without backlash?  

• Would Khan himself welcome such a move, given its potential impact on his political narrative?  

For now, these questions linger unanswered, making the scenario more of a thought experiment than a tangible possibility. As in politics, sometimes speculation is all we have—until reality proves otherwise.