United Nations and Kashmir Issue

The Kashmir Issue and the United Nations

The UN Security Council consists of 15 members, of which five hold permanent status and wield veto power. For any resolution to pass, it must secure at least nine votes, provided no permanent member vetoes it. Today, the Council is convening in a closed-door session to discuss the Kashmir issue. The urgency with which this session was called reflects the gravity of the matter. While a major breakthrough may not be anticipated, the discussion alone signals progress that could deter two nuclear-armed states from engaging in direct conflict.

A realistic resolution to the Kashmir dispute largely depends on the positions taken by two permanent members: the United States and Russia. Although the UK and France also hold permanent seats, their stance often aligns with the U.S. due to shared NATO interests. Meanwhile, China, a principal player in this matter, has adopted a clear stance as a party to the dispute.

U.S. Policy in South Asia and Rivalry with China

In light of China’s expanding influence in South Asia, the U.S. has redefined its longstanding regional policies, positioning India as a strategic partner. This shift sidelines fifty years of close relations with Pakistan as America attempts to establish India as a regional leader. By giving India a central role in Afghanistan, the U.S. aims to extend India’s influence into Central Asia, diminishing China and Russia’s foothold in the region. Washington’s discomfort with China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), stems from concerns over China’s increasing trade dominance and regional influence.

Map of China's CPEC Route and One Belt and Road

 

China’s Strategic Investments and South Asian Politics

China has become Pakistan’s closest strategic partner, with numerous vested interests tied to Pakistan’s stability. China perceives India’s recent actions as aggressive territorial expansion and will likely work to restore the status quo. Beijing played a pivotal role in convening today’s Security Council meeting, highlighting the issue of Kashmir on the global stage. Yet, despite its support for Pakistan’s stance, China prefers to avoid escalating tensions that could destabilize the region. A conflict in South Asia would threaten China’s projects, including CPEC, and its broader Belt and Road plans.

India’s Regional Position

India, with one of the world’s largest economies and a robust defense industry, stands poised as an emerging military and economic power. Its annual imports exceed $500 billion, and last year alone, India invested $100 billion in defense purchases. The interests of powerful nations align with India due to its consumer market and purchasing power. For example, though Russia and Israel historically hold opposing stances, they converge on supporting India, a significant defense partner for both. Likewise, despite opposing interests in the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia both prioritize maintaining relations with India, their mutual economic partner.

India’s Stance on Kashmir

For five years, India has systematically pursued its goal of integrating Kashmir into its union, as seen by the subdued response from key Muslim-majority nations to India’s recent actions. Domestic movements for autonomy within India hinge on Kashmir’s stability; setbacks in Kashmir could energize these separatist movements. While India's economic and political clout supports its aggressive stance, Pakistan currently grapples with severe economic challenges, weakening its leverage on the international stage. Consequently, while Pakistan voices strong support for the Kashmir cause, it lacks the capacity to impose diplomatic pressure on India.

Pakistan’s Position on Kashmir

Since its founding, Pakistan has shaped its policies around the Kashmir cause, even at the cost of enduring economic strain. Three major wars over Kashmir have shaped Pakistan’s strategy, with both the Line of Control (LoC) and Siachen Glacier remaining flashpoints. However, despite some military successes, such as the February 2019 aerial engagements, Pakistan lacks the resources for sustained conventional conflict, let alone the ramifications of a nuclear escalation. In this precarious balance, many in Pakistan hold that the ultimate resolution may lie in divine intervention, echoing the notion that "God’s justice" may be the only recourse.

The United Nations and Its Resolutions on Kashmir

The United Nations holds several resolutions on the Kashmir issue, but ignoring them would damage its credibility. Convincing India to adhere to these resolutions is a daunting task, and historical precedent suggests that Pakistan may once again be encouraged to accept a compromised solution. In previous instances, Pakistan has made concessions, as seen in the Indus Water Treaty, often in exchange for modest international aid.

Is a Solution Possible?

Considering the geopolitical and military complexities, Kashmir’s freedom seems improbable without significant intervention. The nuclear status of both India and Pakistan does offer a measure of deterrence; the international community is unlikely to condone any military escalation between nuclear states.