Pakistan's Path to the Semifinals

World Cup 2023: 
Favoritism and Pakistan's Path to the Semifinals

As the World Cup 2023 unfolds, discussions around the likely semifinalists have taken center stage. Three teams consistently top most predictions: India, England, and Australia. However, the fourth spot remains an open question.

 

Contenders for the Fourth Spot:

Regional experts are leaning towards Pakistan as the potential fourth contender, largely due to its history and fan base in the region. However, New Zealand has emerged as a strong candidate following its impressive victory over England.

After a win against the Netherlands, Pakistan still needs to secure victories over Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, but that alone may not be enough. To solidify its position, Pakistan would need to defeat at least two of the major teams to avoid falling into a precarious "if and but" situation.

The Major Teams:

The top teams have entered the tournament with full strength and balance. England, in particular, has been in exceptional form, bolstered by additions like Moeen and Adil, creating a nearly unbeatable side. Australia, a traditional powerhouse in one-day cricket, has also arrived with a well-rounded roster.

India has always been known for its formidable batting line-up, complemented this year by a strong spin attack. Their all-rounders further enhance the team’s stability, with Hardik Pandya adding exceptional depth. While India’s fast bowling has historically lagged, Mohammad Siraj's recent Asia Cup performance may have finally given Jasprit Bumrah the ideal partner. Together, these factors have positioned India as one of the tournament's favorites.

Beyond these three, New Zealand and South Africa stand out as Pakistan’s primary rivals for the fourth semifinal slot. Pakistan must secure a win against one of these two teams to maintain realistic hopes of advancing.

Challenges for Pakistan:

Pakistan has entered the World Cup not at full strength. The Asia Cup exposed several weaknesses, leading to a drop in their world ranking. The absence of fast bowler Naseem Shah due to injury disrupted Pakistan’s bowling attack, forcing them to rely on disciplined line and length instead of sheer pace.

Spin bowling remains another area of concern, with Pakistan choosing all-rounders and part-time spinners over specialist spin bowlers. Most teams in the tournament feature at least one specialist spinner, while Pakistan continues to rely on Shadab Khan and Mohammad Nawaz, whose styles may be better suited to the fast pace of T20 rather than the 50-over format. Some experts have suggested replacing Shadab with Usama Mir or giving up Nawaz in favor of an alternative, particularly as neither has been able to contribute consistently.

After Pakistan’s recent loss to Sri Lanka, fans on social media called for Imad Wasim in place of Nawaz. Imad’s confidence in batting could add value to the team, but his spin capabilities might not suffice in ODI cricket, where batsmen can settle in for longer innings.

Opening Woes:

A strong opening partnership has always been a rare luxury for Pakistan. Recent matches have exposed Fakhar Zaman's struggle for form, dropping him to 11th in the ODI rankings from his career-high of No. 2. Despite this, his potential as a match-winner means Pakistan continues to give him chances, hoping he will deliver. However, a stable batting lineup requires more than individual brilliance; consistent contributions from all players are essential.

Rizwan at No. 4 adds stability, while Saud Shakeel, included at the last minute, brings depth to the batting order. Initially left out in favor of Agha Salman’s part-time bowling, Saud’s solid performances have now made him an essential part of the lineup. The only weak link remains the opening pair, which needs to find its footing for Pakistan to perform consistently.

Leadership Questions:

Babar Azam's leadership often comes under scrutiny when Pakistan falters. In team selection, he has been accused of favoritism, and on the field, his captaincy sometimes appears more focused on completing overs than setting attacking strategies. That said, Babar's personal performances elevate team morale, giving Pakistan an edge.

Ranked as the world’s No. 1 batsman since April 2021, Babar faces a pivotal World Cup. While his consistency has held this ranking, a slip-up could not only cost him the top position but might also open the door for Shaheen Afridi to take over as captain.

Pakistan's World Cup Journey So Far:

This is Pakistan's 13th World Cup. Of the previous 12 tournaments, Pakistan reached the semifinals four times, finished as runners-up once (1999), and claimed the title in 1992. Their worst performances were in 2003 and 2007 when they ranked 10th. In 2019, although they failed to make the semifinals, their overall performance was commendable, with notable victories against some strong teams.

Pakistan’s Road to the Semifinals:

The tournament features 10 teams, each playing 9 matches. A team that wins all its games will end up with 18 points, with 16 and 14 points typically sufficing for the top three spots. A fourth-place finish could be secured with around 12 points. If no major upsets occur, the top 6 teams are expected to accumulate at least 8 points each by winning against the lower 4 teams, making the remaining points contested within the top teams.

Key Matches for Pakistan:

One of the most anticipated games of the World Cup will take place on October 14 between Pakistan and India. Set in Gujarat’s Narendra Modi Stadium, this match promises an electric atmosphere with over 132,000 fans expected. Despite Pakistan leading their head-to-head record overall, they have yet to defeat India in a World Cup encounter.

Pitch Analysis:

The Narendra Modi Stadium offers a balanced pitch that starts with bounce but slows down as the game progresses. Dew could be a factor in the second innings, favoring teams that bat first. While the pitch has supported scores as high as 365, India once successfully chased down 325 here in 2002, indicating that both teams will need to adapt to changing conditions.

Prospects for Pakistan:

Statistically, Pakistan’s chances may seem slim, but confidence is running high after their historic win against Sri Lanka. If they can weather the pressure in their upcoming matches, especially against India, they may ride this momentum deep into the tournament.