Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Iran vs Israel

 

Why Are Iran and Israel Enemies?

Iran and Israel, once allies, have become fierce adversaries, particularly since Iran’s Islamic Revolution. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian consulates in Syria and Iran’s counterattacks with drones and missiles exemplify this ongoing rivalry, which has intensified over recent decades. Iran openly expresses its desire to erase Israel from the map, while Israel considers Iran its greatest adversary.

A Historical Shift

Before Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, Israel and Iran shared a cooperative alliance. Iran was one of the first nations to recognize Israel in 1948, viewing Israel as a counterbalance against Arab nations. In exchange for oil, Israel provided Iran with technical expertise, training Iranian agricultural specialists and supporting its armed forces.

Changing Relations After 1979

The 1979 revolution marked a turning point, as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his religious regime dissolved previous treaties with Israel. Iran began vocally opposing Israel’s control over Palestinian territories, with its increasingly severe rhetoric aimed at gaining support from regional Arab populations and expanding its own influence.

When Israel intervened in Lebanon’s civil conflict in 1982, Khomeini sent the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to Beirut to back local Shia militias. The Hezbollah militia, which grew from this support, is now a key Iranian proxy in Lebanon.

Present-Day Relations

Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, continues the anti-Israel stance, frequently questioning the Holocaust’s narrative and opposing any form of compromise with Israel.

  • Is the war between Iran and Israel a war of religion and ideology or is it a struggle for dominance in the region?

The complex relationship between Iran and Israel encompasses a blend of religious, ideological, and geopolitical factors, though many analysts view the conflict as fundamentally rooted in a struggle for regional dominance with religion as a powerful but secondary component.

1. Ideological and Religious Dimensions

  • Religious Rhetoric: The animosity includes religious undertones, particularly from Iran's leadership, which often frames Israel as an “illegitimate Zionist entity.” This aligns with Iran's role as a Shia Muslim theocracy, positioning itself against Israel, which it portrays as a Western-backed, secular state in the heart of the Islamic Middle East​.
  • Ideological Rivalry: Iran’s revolutionary ideology, which opposes Western influence and promotes a model of Islamic governance, is fundamentally at odds with Israel's democratic system and its alliances with the West, particularly the United States​.

2. Geopolitical and Strategic Motivations

  • Regional Dominance: Both nations are vying for influence in the Middle East. Iran has expanded its presence in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen through proxy groups like Hezbollah, which is a key part of its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel. Israel, in turn, seeks to curb Iranian influence by countering these proxies and limiting Iran’s reach, particularly near its own borders​.
  • Nuclear Ambitions: Iran’s nuclear program adds another layer, as Israel perceives a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat. Israel’s preventive measures against this—such as alleged cyber attacks and airstrikes on Iranian assets—reflect a strategic attempt to maintain military superiority in the region​.

3. National Security and Existential Threats

  • Mutual Perception as a Threat: Both states view each other as significant threats to their national security. Iran views Israel’s alliance with Western powers, particularly the United States, as a containment strategy aimed at Iran’s isolation. Conversely, Israel sees Iran's support for anti-Israel groups and its military expansion as efforts to encircle and threaten Israel​.

While religion and ideology amplify the tension, the core of the Iran-Israel conflict lies in regional dominance and security concerns. Iran’s support for armed groups in opposition to Israel and its nuclear ambitions challenge Israel’s position, while Israel actively works to counterbalance Iran’s influence. Thus, though religious rhetoric is evident, this rivalry is driven largely by geopolitical strategies and power struggles.

 

Debates Within Iran

Not all Iranians support the government’s antagonistic approach toward Israel. Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani’s daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, suggested in a 2021 interview that Iran reconsider its relationship with Israel, highlighting that alliances with Russia and China overlook the treatment of Muslims in Chechnya and Xinjiang.

There are still more than 20,000 Jewish residents living in Iran


Sadegh Zibakalam, a political science professor at Tehran University, criticized Iran’s policy on Israel, stating it isolates the country on the international stage.

  • Do the Iranian people want war or is this a strategy of the ruling Iranian political party to hold on to power?

The general sentiment among the Iranian people tends to be against war, particularly with Israel or the West. Many Iranians prioritize economic stability, improved living standards, and greater social freedoms, rather than conflict. Polls and studies, while sometimes limited in scope due to restrictions within Iran, indicate that a significant portion of the population seeks reform and wishes for normalized relations with other nations, including the West and neighboring countries, rather than confrontational policies​.

Strategy of the Iranian Political Leadership

Iran’s ruling authorities, particularly hardline factions within the government, use anti-Israel and anti-West rhetoric strategically. This approach serves multiple purposes:

  • Maintaining Unity and Control: By emphasizing external threats, Iranian leaders are able to promote a narrative of national solidarity against foreign "enemies," which can help divert attention from domestic issues such as inflation, unemployment, and political repression.
  • Legitimizing Their Rule: Iran’s Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard Corps often portray themselves as protectors of Islamic and Iranian values against Western influence, justifying their power and strict policies as necessary for national security.

Public Sentiment vs. Government Stance

The Iranian public's views frequently contrast with those of their government. For example, during major protests, such as those in 2009 (the Green Movement) and 2019 (economic protests), many Iranians voiced dissatisfaction with their government’s foreign policies, especially its involvement in regional conflicts like those in Syria and Yemen. Economic hardships stemming from sanctions and the government’s military expenditures abroad have also fueled domestic discontent​.

The Iranian government’s stance on regional conflicts and its anti-Israel rhetoric are more likely strategies to consolidate internal control and assert regional influence. Meanwhile, the Iranian populace generally favors peace and economic reform over war. This divide highlights the complexity of Iran's internal politics, where the government’s foreign policy often does not reflect popular opinion.

 

Power Dynamics

Though Iran possesses a vast missile arsenal, including the Shihab series and Zolfaghar missiles, Israel’s advanced technology, missile systems, and defense capabilities (such as the Iron Dome) offer it a robust defense against missile and drone threats.

In terms of conventional military forces, Israel’s technological superiority in air and missile defense surpasses Iran’s, despite Iran's greater population and larger standing army.

The rivalry also extends into cyber warfare, where Israel’s sophisticated digital infrastructure makes it vulnerable to Iran’s increasing cyber capabilities. However, Iran’s defense systems remain less advanced, making its own networks susceptible to counterattacks.

This complex, decades-long enmity continues to shape regional alliances and tensions across the Middle East.

Who Holds More Military Power: Iran or Israel?

The military power dynamics between Iran and Israel are complex, influenced by distance, technological capabilities, and differing defense strategies. Despite the 2,152-kilometer gap, Iran has demonstrated the reach of its missiles, proving significant progress in its missile program.

Iran is home to the Middle East’s largest and most diverse missile program, reportedly possessing over 3,000 ballistic missiles, according to U.S. Central Command’s General Kenneth McKenzie in 2022. On the other hand, Israel’s missile capabilities remain less public, though it is widely recognized as having the most advanced missile stockpile in the region. Over the last six decades, Israel has developed missiles, both domestically and through collaboration with allies, notably the United States, and even exports them. Notable missiles in Israel’s arsenal include the Delilah, Gabriel, Jericho series, and Popeye, among others. Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system, however, stands as a unique asset, effectively intercepting a range of incoming threats, including rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah.

According to Israeli missile defense engineer Uzi Rubin, the Iron Dome is unmatched worldwide, serving as a reliable short-range defense system. Conversely, Iran, a larger nation by both land and population, presents its own advantages. However, comparing these factors alone doesn't directly translate to greater military power. Israel allocates substantial funds to its defense budget—nearly $24 billion compared to Iran's $10 billion—enhancing its technological and defensive superiority.

While Iran has approximately 610,000 active military personnel, significantly more than Israel's 170,000, Israel excels in advanced technology and air force capabilities, boasting 241 fighter jets and 48 attack helicopters compared to Iran's 186 jets and 13 helicopters. Iran has focused heavily on missile and drone capabilities, producing both short- and long-range options. These have occasionally appeared in regional conflicts, including missile strikes attributed to Iranian support in Yemen.

Key missiles in Iran's inventory include the Shihab series, capable of up to 2,000 kilometers, and the Zolfaghar, which can target at ranges up to 700 kilometers. Recently, Iran added the Fateh-110 hypersonic missile with a range of 300-500 kilometers, marking advancements in its missile technology. Yet, while Iran has launched hundreds of missiles, Israel’s history of guerrilla operations on foreign soil showcases a tactical edge.



In terms of cyber warfare, both nations engage heavily, though Israel’s advanced digital infrastructure presents vulnerabilities against Iran's cyber capabilities, balancing the technological disparities with cyber strategies. This sophisticated and multifaceted rivalry between Iran and Israel thus spans missile technology, military budgets, and the shadowy domain of cyber defense, shaping their regional standoff.

 

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

BetPro Exchange:

 A Comprehensive Guide to Online Betting and Trading

With the rise of online betting exchanges, platforms like BetPro Exchange are changing the way people engage with betting and trading, offering users greater flexibility and more opportunities to strategize. This article provides a detailed look at BetPro Exchange, its features, advantages, and how it differs from traditional betting methods, particularly in markets like Pakistan, where mobile access to betting services is increasingly popular.

What is BetPro Exchange?

BetPro Exchange operates as a peer-to-peer betting platform, where users bet against each other rather than against a bookmaker. In a traditional sportsbook, you place bets against the house, but on a betting exchange, you can either back a bet (betting that an outcome will happen) or lay a bet (betting that an outcome will not happen). This unique model gives users more control and the ability to leverage their betting strategies.

How Does BetPro Exchange Work?

The platform facilitates bets between two parties with opposing views on the outcome of an event. The user who believes a particular outcome will happen backs the bet, while another user who believes the outcome will not happen lays the bet. BetPro Exchange serves as the intermediary, ensuring secure transactions and fair play.

  • Back Betting: A user bets on a specific outcome, such as a football team winning. If the team wins, the bettor profits.
  • Lay Betting: A user bets that an outcome won’t happen. If the team loses or the match draws, the user who laid the bet wins.

BetPro Exchange provides real-time odds, which fluctuate based on user activity, similar to a financial market. This dynamic setup allows for in-play betting, where users can bet or adjust their positions while an event is ongoing.

Key Features of BetPro Exchange

1.    Competitive Odds: Odds on BetPro Exchange are often more favorable than those offered by traditional bookmakers because users are betting against each other. The platform only takes a small commission on winning bets.

2.    In-Play Betting: Users can place bets during live events, offering more flexibility to hedge or adjust their positions as the event progresses.

3.    Trading Opportunities: Like in financial markets, BetPro allows users to trade bets. For example, if you back a team and the odds shorten, you can lay the same team at a lower price to secure a profit before the match ends.

4.    Market Variety: BetPro covers a wide range of sports and events, from popular sports like football, cricket, and horse racing, to niche markets like politics and financial events, catering to a diverse audience.

5.    Risk Management Tools: The platform provides tools such as stop-loss orders and liability limits to help users manage their risk and prevent significant losses.

Why BetPro Exchange is Popular in Pakistan

The BetPro Exchange app has gained significant traction in Pakistan due to its mobile accessibility and user-friendly design. Here are some reasons for its growing popularity:

1.    Increased Mobile Access: As more people turn to mobile devices for entertainment and online gambling, BetPro Exchange’s mobile app has made it easier for users to place bets from anywhere, anytime.

2.    User-Friendly Interface: The app offers a simple, intuitive interface, making it accessible for both novice and experienced bettors. Features such as live match streaming, virtual wallets for fund management, and real-time betting options have enhanced the user experience.

3.    Competitive Odds and Diverse Options: BetPro’s competitive odds and wide range of betting markets, including live sports events, have attracted users looking for better returns on their wagers.

4.    Security and Trust: The platform prioritizes security with robust measures to protect personal information and financial transactions, which is crucial in a market where trust can be a concern for many users.

How to Earn Money with BetPro Exchange in Pakistan



Earning money through BetPro Exchange requires a solid understanding of the platform’s mechanics and a strategic approach. Here are some tips:

1.    Understand Betting Basics: Users can either back an outcome (expecting it to happen) or lay it (expecting it not to happen). Knowledge of how odds work and how to identify value bets is essential.

2.    Choose Sports and Markets Wisely: Focus on sports or events where you have a good understanding, such as local cricket or football, and consider key factors like team form, injuries, and recent trends.

3.    Analyze Odds for Value: Compare odds across different users and look for bets where the odds don’t reflect the actual probability of an event, offering an opportunity for value betting.

4.    Manage Risk: Set a budget for betting and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses, and use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses on a bad bet.

5.    Leverage Your Expertise: If you have in-depth knowledge of a particular sport, you can use that to your advantage. Staying updated on team news and player form can give you an edge.

Advantages of BetPro Exchange

  • Flexibility: BetPro Exchange offers more strategic possibilities with both back and lay betting. You can profit regardless of whether an outcome occurs or not.
  • Greater Control: The platform allows users to close positions mid-event, letting you lock in profits or cut losses before the event ends.
  • Transparency and Competitive Odds: Since the odds are determined by the users themselves through market supply and demand, BetPro Exchange offers a more transparent and often better value system than traditional bookmakers.
  • Arbitrage Potential: The peer-to-peer nature of BetPro makes it a favorable platform for arbitrage betting, where users can exploit differences in odds across platforms to secure guaranteed profits.

Differences Between BetPro Exchange and Traditional Bookmakers

  • Peer-to-Peer Betting: Unlike traditional sportsbooks where you bet against the house, BetPro Exchange users bet against each other, resulting in more competitive odds.
  • Commission-Based Model: The platform charges a small commission only on winning bets, unlike bookmakers who factor their margin into the odds.
  • No Bet Limits: Traditional bookmakers often limit bet sizes, especially for frequent winners. On BetPro Exchange, there are no limits since users are betting against one another, not the house.

Responsible Betting on BetPro Exchange

While BetPro Exchange offers opportunities for profits, it’s important to practice responsible gambling. The platform provides features such as deposit limits, self-exclusion options, and reality checks to ensure that users bet within their means.


BetPro Exchange has revolutionized the online betting space by offering a transparent, flexible, and user-friendly platform. Whether you’re a casual bettor looking for better odds or a seasoned trader seeking to exploit market movements, BetPro provides the tools and opportunities to enhance your betting experience. Its combination of peer-to-peer interaction, real-time betting, competitive odds, and market diversity makes it a compelling alternative to traditional sportsbooks, particularly in markets like Pakistan where mobile betting is on the rise.

Tags: BetPro Exchange, betting exchange, back betting, lay betting, sports trading, peer-to-peer betting, in-play betting, competitive odds, arbitrage betting.

 

Friday, January 19, 2024

Iran versus Pakistan, Economic, Local and Military Review

Iran vs. Pakistan: An Examination of Tensions

Historical Background of the Border Dispute

The 900-kilometer border between Pakistan and Iran, known as the Goldsmith Line, was demarcated by Goldsmith in 1871. Along this border live Baloch tribes who do not recognize the boundary, carrying out insurgent activities in both countries. On the Iranian side, a Sunni Baloch minority resides, feeling marginalized by the central government, which they accuse of religious discrimination. The U.S. Counterterrorism Agency notes that groups like Jaish al-Adl advocate for these Baloch rights, further straining relations.

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran and Pakistan were both aligned with the Western bloc. In the 1970s, Iran’s Shah even assisted Pakistan in curbing separatist activities in Balochistan. However, after the revolution, Iran became adversarial to the West, while Pakistan remained aligned with it. Although both countries opposed the Soviet Union during the Afghan jihad, Iran supported the Northern Alliance (predominantly Shiite Hazara) while Pakistan backed the Mujahideen.



Military Capabilities and Economic Strengths

According to the Global Fire Index, Pakistan ranks 9th in military strength while Iran ranks 14th. However, neighboring conflicts are rarely won through military prowess alone. Factors like economic stability, natural resources, technological dependency, strategic location, religious identity, ethnic diversity, and population dynamics also play a crucial role.























Geographically, Iran is twice as large as Pakistan, yet Pakistan has triple the population. Economically, Iran holds an advantage with a robust oil and gas reserve (the world’s second-largest natural gas and third-largest oil reserves), while Pakistan relies heavily on imported oil, spending around $17 billion annually. Iran’s export and import revenues are $107 billion and $54 billion, respectively, allowing for financial independence, whereas Pakistan’s trade deficit and external debt create ongoing dependency on international aid from the IMF, the U.S., and Gulf states.

Iran’s identity is rooted in religious zeal and ancient pride. Its 3,200-year-old history saw it as a superpower, rivaling ancient Greece. Notably, Cyrus the Great (550 BCE) and Darius I (who ruled after seizing power in 522 BCE) led Persia as the world’s largest empire, until Alexander the Great defeated King Darius III in 323 BCE.

Iran's Religious Transformation and Influence

Iran’s religious identity evolved significantly over centuries. Before Islam, it was the birthplace of Zoroastrianism, a state religion from the 15th to the 10th century BCE. Following the arrival of Islam, Khalid ibn al-Walid’s victory over the Persian province of Mesopotamia in 633 CE marked the beginning of Islamic influence. In 636 CE, Sa'd ibn Abi Waqqas achieved a decisive victory at the Battle of Qadisiyyah, and by 642, under Caliph Umar’s orders, Muslim forces gradually gained control of Persia.

Currently, 99% of Iran’s population is Muslim, with around 90% identifying as Shia and 9% as Sunni. Iran’s shift to Shiism occurred in the 16th century when Shah Ismail I of the Safavid dynasty enforced Shia Islam, giving Sunnis the ultimatum to convert or face death. His actions led to conflicts with the Ottoman Empire and established a strong Shia identity in Iran.

Modern Iran as a Religious State

The 1979 Islamic Revolution marked Iran’s emergence as a theocratic state. Iran has since engaged in regional ideological influence, including an eight-year war with Iraq. Despite facing Western and Arab support for Iraq, Iran emerged resilient. In contrast, Pakistan, with its Sunni majority (85-90%) and Shia minority (10-15%), experiences sectarian divides, with frequent religious and political tensions. Globally, Pakistan has the second-largest Shia population after Iran, and sectarian violence, notably in the 1990s, highlighted the internal challenges intensified by Iran’s growing influence.

Ethnic Composition in Iran and Pakistan

Iran’s population is composed of various ethnic groups: Persian speakers make up 60-65%, Azeris 15-17%, Kurds 7-10%, Baloch 2%, and Turks 1%. Pakistan, although Punjabi-majority, has an ethnically diverse landscape, creating additional challenges in maintaining national unity.



Current Tensions at the Border

The Baloch region spans both Pakistan (Balochistan) and Iran (Sistan), leading to cross-border accusations. Iran alleges attacks from Pakistani territory, and Pakistan holds similar views. Recently, Iran conducted operations within Pakistani territory, prompting Pakistan to retaliate. Without diplomatic intervention, these events risk escalating into sustained cross-border hostilities, which neither country desires.

Iran's Broader Ambitions

Iran’s recent regional confrontations—such as strikes on Iraq and Syria—raise questions. Some speculate that domestic pressures to support Gaza amidst the Israel conflict have contributed to Iran’s aggression. Additionally, Iran faces strained relations with the U.S. under Biden, who recently issued a warning of potential conflict. The timing of Iran’s actions against Pakistan appears puzzling, suggesting either a miscalculated step or an overreach influenced by internal or regional pressures.

Global Implications

Iran’s support for the Houthi rebels, who target ships in the Red Sea, poses risks to one of the world’s key maritime routes. This path is crucial for trade between East and West, connecting through the Suez Canal. If blocked, ships would need to detour around South Africa, increasing transport time, insurance costs, and, consequently, the price of goods globally.

With inflation already heightened by the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, this instability could further strain economies worldwide. Countries like Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, China, and Japan are particularly keen to avoid further disruptions. The U.S. and the UK have deployed a multinational task force in the Red Sea, reinforcing their naval presence. Western powers, including Israel, could leverage Iran’s unprovoked attack on Pakistan to shift public opinion against Iran, potentially setting the stage for action against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.



Pakistan's Stance

While Pakistan is reluctant to worsen ties with Iran, ignoring such an incursion could invite further attacks. Unlike Syria, Yemen, or Iraq, Pakistan has previously demonstrated resilience against similar challenges from India, making a strong response likely.

As of recent reports, Pakistan has conducted retaliatory strikes against anti-state elements in Iran’s Sistan region. In military strength, Pakistan remains better positioned than Iran, though it has no desire for prolonged conflict. Diplomacy remains the most viable solution, as an armed escalation would only fuel tensions and external interventions, risking a broader regional conflict.


Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Dar Returns vs. Dollar Returns

Ishaq Dar’s Return: Will the Dollar Follow?

In a decisive move to tackle the nation’s economic challenges, the Pakistan Muslim League (N) has deployed its top player, Ishaq Dar, to take on the daunting task ahead.


Brief Profile of Ishaq Dar:

Born in 1950, Ishaq Dar was raised and educated in Lahore. He graduated with top honors and a gold medal in commerce from Punjab University, where Nawaz Sharif was among his peers. Dar later became the youngest Pakistani to qualify as a Chartered Accountant in the UK. Professionally, he is both a Chartered Accountant and businessman, beginning his career in London before moving to Libya, where he worked as a senior auditor. He returned to Pakistan in 1977 and entered politics as a member of the Muslim League’s Central Committee in 1980. Dar’s first tenure as Finance Minister came in 1998, following Pakistan’s nuclear tests, and he endured two years in prison after the 1999 military coup. In 2004, his family ties with Nawaz Sharif were strengthened when Dar’s son married Sharif’s daughter.

Dar held the finance portfolio briefly for a second time in 2008 under Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani, where he introduced the idea that later became the Benazir Income Support Program. Although he was nominated for Pakistan’s highest civilian award, the Nishan-e-Imtiaz, he declined it from President Asif Ali Zardari. In 2013, he took on the role of Finance Minister for a third term until 2017. Amid Panama Papers and NAB cases, Dar left for London, where he remained for five years, seeking political asylum. Now, he returns to Pakistan, set to become the country’s longest-serving Finance Minister.

Positives of Dar’s Return

With Dar back, ambiguity over political and economic direction can finally be set aside. His return signifies that elections will proceed as scheduled next year, potentially lending stability to the political landscape. The alliance between PDM and the “London League” on this issue is a signal of cohesion. Investors may find renewed confidence, anticipating a reduction in political turbulence, which could bring positive effects on Pakistan’s economy in the near future. Additionally, the PML-N is expected to make strenuous efforts to restore its reputation and provide some economic relief to the public before the next election.

Criticisms Surrounding Dar's Return

For some, Dar’s return as a trusted “caretaker” of PML-N’s interests is unwelcome. Recent audio leaks and previous incidents suggest that Dar’s role is not purely governmental but also serves to safeguard family interests.

Another critique revolves around the PML-N’s structural dependency on a close circle, dubbed the “kitchen cabinet.” Observers wonder if the party will ever mature beyond this inner cadre. In the recent months since Dar’s absence, it’s apparent that the party remains resistant to structural change.

On a technical front, Dar has often been regarded as PML-N’s “dollar expert.” Under his previous tenure, while the dollar remained stable, Pakistan’s trade deficit ballooned, and exports struggled, indicating underlying economic imbalances. He managed to keep the rupee’s value steady, though this ultimately came at the cost of industrial closures and reduced exports.

When Dar took office in 2013, the current account deficit was at $4.4 billion, which grew to $16 billion by 2017. This deepening deficit, with high imports and low exports, created an economic imbalance that invited currency devaluation risks, often leading Pakistan to seek IMF support. Today’s global climate poses far greater challenges, with rising oil prices and global uncertainties from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Different Economic Landscape Now

In 2015, low oil prices and Chinese financing gave Pakistan significant leeway. Today, global oil prices have surged, and China, now more cautious, has curtailed its lending, seeking repayment on previous energy deals. These agreements, hastily made by the PML-N, supplied the country with power then, but today have left Pakistan with burdensome electricity rates. Chinese companies are now pressing their government over outstanding payments from Pakistan, adding strain to the bilateral relationship. Meanwhile, the U.S. has encouraged Pakistan to reconsider its ties with China, asking for “responsible relations” with India.

When it comes to the dollar’s trajectory, the global trend is unfavorable even for major currencies like the British pound and euro, so bringing the dollar back to 182 PKR—a previous benchmark—is unlikely without a substantial shift. The PML-N faces mounting pressure to address this challenge as the dollar’s pre-crisis rate under PTI is often cited by the opposition to criticize the government’s performance.

Upcoming Winter Challenges and the Economic Outlook

With gas prices set to rise further and electricity costs already high, the PML-N faces dwindling options. The recent return of Ishaq Dar signals the PML-N’s resolve to put forth its best efforts. The party is expected to present its achievements as a result of strong economic policies and possibly attribute past failures to external influences.

The rainy season has replenished hydroelectric resources, which should help with electricity rates. While bringing prices to pre-PTI levels may be unrealistic, any relief in fuel and dollar rates could help PML-N regain some public support. As IMF funds are now anticipated, PML-N has seized this moment to reassert control, hopeful that it can reverse its fortunes and make strides towards economic recovery, or at least curb further decline before the next elections.

 


Monday, September 26, 2022

The Dilemma of Overseas Pakistanis

Overseas Pakistanis: Questions and Insights

Overseas Pakistanis are, without a doubt, a lifeline for Pakistan’s economy.

Pakistan’s trade deficit is no secret, and it’s the dollars sent home by these expatriates that are keeping the economy afloat. Last year, exports were around $31.76 billion, while imports were nearly $80 billion, leaving a trade deficit of approximately $50 billion. In such a scenario, the $31.2 billion sent by overseas Pakistanis is nothing short of a blessing.

While all of Pakistan collectively earns about $31.76 billion, nearly 9 million overseas Pakistanis contribute almost the same amount alone. Given this contribution, it only makes sense that they should have a fair voice in Pakistan’s political sphere. It’s also their right to be concerned about how this precious foreign exchange is spent and to voice their opinions on such issues.

According to Pakistan's Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development, more than 8.5 million Pakistanis live abroad for employment and education.

The sacrifices these overseas Pakistanis make to support their families and homeland are well-known. Despite the hardships they face abroad, they send home significant foreign exchange, which ironically is often used by bureaucrats and other elites to fund luxury imports. While political criticism is easy, what economic policies have any political party put forth to address the trade deficit? Parties may boast about a 6% growth rate, but how much did exports actually increase under their rule? Currently, it’s overseas Pakistanis who are essentially propping up the economy.


On the topic of property investment, imposing restrictions on their investments is questionable. Policy-making is the responsibility of officials, not individual expatriates sending money home. In rural Punjab, for example, these overseas Pakistanis build homes that provide local jobs and stimulate the economy, while elites gravitate towards luxury markets. Furthermore, the construction sector boosts numerous industries and provides employment to the working class.

For these families, Pakistan also serves as a holiday home, and they bring valuable foreign exchange along with them. What are we giving them in return? Rather than driving them away over political differences, we should appreciate their connection to Pakistan. If they support a particular political party, other parties should engage them with policies and strategies to attract their support, not by suggesting punitive measures like blocking their passports. Over 100 countries, including France, Italy, the UK, the USA, and Canada, grant their overseas citizens the right to vote. Unfortunately, partisan politics here often blinds people, who end up supporting one party unconditionally and opposing another without reason.

Many overseas Pakistanis risk their lives to reach Europe via Iran, Turkey, and Greece, overcoming immense challenges before settling in foreign lands, earning a living, and sending money home. If certain political factions resent them, what alternative do these factions offer for the foreign exchange they provide?


When Pakistan's ministers go abroad seeking dollars, how can they then return and use precious foreign exchange to buy luxury items?

These ministers go on official trips and indulge in personal shopping sprees. Isn’t this an insult to the impoverished and forgotten citizens of Pakistan? Do we have answers to these questions?

As the country stands on the brink of default, with the dollar soaring in value, the financial obligations Pakistan faces this year are staggering. To secure even a billion dollars, the IMF has imposed conditions that have resulted in higher taxes, escalating the costs of electricity, gas, and petrol. The State Bank has lost control of Pakistan's financial sovereignty, and who knows what further restrictions will come? So, when government ministers publicly promote luxury imports, what message does this send to the rest of the nation?

If we are to save Pakistan, it’s time to save the dollar and, in doing so, save the country.

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Economic and political crisis of Pakistan

Pakistan’s Economic and Political Crisis: A Scholarly Analysis

Pakistan is presently navigating an escalating economic and political crisis marked by complex factors that challenge its stability and development. From a sharp currency depreciation to a spiraling debt burden, the nation's financial outlook is precarious. The inability to avert a default, despite asset sales and stringent austerity measures, suggests that deeper structural issues were seeded long before the current crisis.

Currency Depreciation and the Rise in Debt

In early 2022, Pakistan’s currency was valued at PKR 182 against the dollar; today, it has depreciated to PKR 280, reflecting a 98 rupee drop in less than two years. During the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) tenure, the currency devalued by 55 rupees over 3.5 years. In contrast, under the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the currency has lost 68 rupees within only a few months. Such rapid depreciation is indicative not just of local economic instability but of Pakistan’s vulnerability to external economic shifts. Given the global economic context, especially in the United States, where interest rates have risen significantly, the dollar’s value has surged, further impacting developing nations like Pakistan, whose debt-servicing obligations are dollar-denominated.


Global Instability and Economic Vulnerability

The COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has destabilized global markets, exacerbating the energy and commodity prices crises. For import-dependent countries like Pakistan, these surges have caused significant strain, particularly as oil prices skyrocketed from $40 to over $120 per barrel. Nations with high current account deficits and large foreign debt burdens are especially vulnerable to such external shocks.

Debt Overhang and Unsustainable Projects

The situation in Pakistan mirrors aspects of Sri Lanka’s crisis, where non-productive debt-funded infrastructure projects, such as Chinese-financed port developments, ultimately led to debt default and asset forfeiture. Pakistan, too, has taken on significant high-interest commercial loans without sufficient revenue-generating outcomes, leaving the government struggling to service its debt. With Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 88%, and repayments scheduled to reach $41 billion this year alone, Pakistan’s debt has ballooned, surpassing $52 trillion PKR in 2022 from approximately 6 trillion in 2008.

Political Instability and Economic Mismanagement

The political landscape, characterized by infighting among major parties and fluctuating policy priorities, has contributed to an inconsistent approach toward economic management. The political pursuit of short-term gains over sustainable policies has further undermined economic stability. Instability, both political and economic, deters investment and hinders economic growth, perpetuating a cycle of crisis.

IMF Reliance and Long-term Implications

Pakistan’s engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains ongoing, though recent rounds of funding have been accompanied by increasingly stringent conditions, amplifying economic austerity. Without IMF support, economists warn that the currency could depreciate further to PKR 300 against the dollar. This potential outcome would not only escalate Pakistan’s debt service obligations but also intensify inflationary pressures on essential goods, affecting millions.

Pakistan’s economic challenges are inextricably linked to its political instability and inconsistent economic policies. To avoid scenarios like Sri Lanka’s, where international creditors seized national assets, Pakistan must adopt a long-term, stable economic policy framework, encourage investment, and foster political unity. Sustainable policies could help shield the nation from recurring cycles of economic and political turmoil.

Through these lenses, it becomes clear that the road to stability requires a balanced approach, avoiding reactionary measures and investing in growth sectors with enduring impact.


Thursday, July 14, 2022

A Population Bomb!

A Population Bomb!

Pakistan has created a nuclear bomb, but it is also making another bomb—it is population BOMB—that threatens to explode by 2040, potentially devastating the nation. Hunger, poverty, and unemployment could transform its youth into zombies, with humanity turning against itself.
Throughout the 20th century, the human population on Earth surged dramatically, rising from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6.1 billion by 2000. At this pace, the United Nations estimates that the global population could reach 11 billion by 2050. This rapid growth has given rise to serious issues, ranging from global poverty to environmental degradation. However, the connections between population growth, poverty, and pollution are not always clear-cut. This book sheds light on how global media has portrayed population growth as a catastrophe. Rather than engaging in traditional debates about population increase, it emphasizes that our concerns about population are often unfounded; in fact, population growth does not inherently obstruct economic, environmental, or reproductive health. Instead, it is our fears that distract us from achieving our goals.


In 2017, fifty Nobel laureates were asked what they believed posed the greatest threat to humanity. They unanimously identified rising population and dwindling resources as the most pressing danger.
According to the World Population Prospects 2022, the global population is set to reach 8 billion this November:
  • By 2030: 8.5 billion
  • By 2050: 9.7 billion
  • By 2080: 10.4 billion



The Ten Most Populous Countries:
  1. 🇮🇳 India | 1,426,409,584
  2. 🇨🇳 China | 1,425,731,257
  3. 🇺🇸 United States | 339,688,556
  4. 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 277,148,717
  5. 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 239,693,115
  6. 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 222,914,017
  7. 🇧🇷 Brazil | 216,214,106
  8. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 172,659,039
  9. 🇷🇺 Russia | 144,528,119
  10. 🇲🇽 Mexico | 128,297,060
Pakistan is among the countries experiencing rapid population growth; its population is increasing at an alarming rate without any serious concern or planning for control. In 1950, Pakistan ranked fourteenth in terms of population; today it stands fifth.

Looking at Pakistan's demographic statistics suggests that all efforts and advancements have been focused solely on increasing the population. If such growth were considered constructive globally, Pakistan would undoubtedly deserve accolades for it—at least in one sector.

The majority of Pakistan's population consists of young individuals under thirty years old. This age distribution is promising in terms of providing opportunities since it represents a period where the working-age population surpasses dependents. This scenario can lead to a demographic dividend—a phase of robust economic growth bolstered by favorable population structure. Research indicates that demographic dividends positively impact economic growth; for instance, between 1965 and 1990, East Asia experienced rapid economic development attributed partly to this dividend alongside favorable economic policies.Currently in Pakistan, approximately 16,473 children are born daily, equating to one child every five seconds, while 4,170 deaths occur each day, or one every twenty-one seconds. Thus overall, Pakistan's population increases by three individuals every twenty seconds.At the time of independence in 1947, Pakistan's population was around 40 million. By 1971, it had grown to 65.3 million, while Bangladesh stood at 71 million. Today (2022), Bangladesh's population has reached 167 million, whereas Pakistan's has surpassed 220 million.
In the region, Pakistan has the highest rate of population growth; only Afghanistan surpasses it:
  • Afghanistan: 2.3%
  • Iran: 1.4%
  • India: 1.2%
  • Sri Lanka: 0.6%
  • China: 0.3%
In Iran in 1980, the average number of children per woman was 6.5; however, Iran implemented a comprehensive policy to control its burgeoning population through community outreach by mosque leaders and teachers promoting family planning from their pulpits. As a result of these efforts and according to a World Bank report from 2020, Iran's fertility rate dropped from 6.5 to just 2.1 children per woman.Birth Rates per Woman Worldwide:
  • Niger: 6.9
  • Somalia: 6.4
  • Chad: 6.3
  • Congo: 6.2
  • Mali: 6.0
  • Nigeria: 5.3
  • Afghanistan: 4.8
  • Pakistan: 3.6
In contrast to other nations where birth control is not debated as a religious issue—Pakistan continues to grapple with whether controlling its population is Islamic or un-Islamic despite the fact that logically speaking this issue pertains fundamentally to economic and human survival.The World Bank and IMF categorize expenditures on family planning as investments and assert that for every dollar spent on such initiatives there will be a return of four dollars in benefits. At the London Conference in 2012, Pakistan pledged to allocate 2.5% of its GDP for these initiatives; however today all public and private expenditures combined—including health care and family planning—amount to less than 0.7% of GDP.Population growth rates vary across provinces:
  • Punjab: 2.1%
  • Sindh: 2.4%
  • Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 2.9%
  • Balochistan: 3.4%
According to current rates of growth in Pakistan by 2040, it will need to create twelve million jobs and build approximately eighty-five thousand new primary schools along with nearly nineteen million new homes while also developing major water reservoirs and ensuring access to clean drinking water.However if new housing developments continue without addressing agricultural needs—where will food come from? How will a country that already imports food cope with the demands of an increasing populace amidst a severe dollar shortage?

Median age by country:








Pakistan’s average Median age currently stands at just 22 years, ranking it among countries with the lowest life expectancy globally.A significant issue contributing to Pakistan’s population increase is a lack of quality education; among less educated women in Pakistan there is an average of 4.2 children, compared to just 2.6 children among educated women.Pakistan was the first country in Asia to initiate a family planning program called "Two Children are Better" as part of its five-year plan from 1965–70; however this initiative faced significant backlash from religious scholars who presented convoluted arguments against it leading ultimately to its failure.If we consider that a boat designed for four people cannot accommodate eight without sinking—this analogy applies equally at local or national levels; we must critically assess whether we have increased resources at the same pace as our growing population based on religious guidance.


The real issue isn’t merely about producing more children; it's about their health, education, and employment opportunities—consider how many healthcare facilities are accessible? According to reports nearly three million children in Pakistan do not attend school—what future awaits them? Will they contribute positively to society or become pawns for gangs or terrorist organizations?With thirty-six percent of the country already living below the poverty line—what will happen when an additional three million join their ranks? Is free education provided in madrasas truly a solution? Does this education offer alternatives for dwindling resources? Does it contribute towards environmental sustainability?Federal Health Minister Abdul Qadir Patel remarked that “we should go where there are fewer Muslims and have more children.”
In the country where there are few Muslims, you should go there and have children: Federal Health Minister Abdul Qadir Patel


If properly educated and trained populations can become valuable assets for national development—untrained populations become burdens on resources instead.Today’s world values intellectual capital over mere manpower; there are smaller nations far wealthier than Pakistan due solely to quality education and training.Thus we should aim for a number of children we can adequately nurture—those whom the state can provide with employment opportunities and better futures.The decision rests with you based on your own reasoning.