Pakistan’s Climate Crossroads: A Call to Urgent Action

The unprecedented monsoon season of 2022 placed Pakistan at the epicentre of climate catastrophe, with clear links to global warming and rising emissions. The devastation witnessed in Pakistan is not an isolated phenomenon. Climate change is a universal crisis, affecting all corners of the world. Just as Pakistan bore the brunt of extreme weather, recent climate-related events in Los Angeles serve as a reminder that no region is immune.

Beyond the Present: The Road to 2047

Pakistan must not only learn from the present but also prepare for the future by adopting climate-responsive policies instead of relying on "business-as-usual" (BAU) models. The country needs to shift towards resilience-based planning, integrating climate action into all strategic frameworks.

While major polluters must be held accountable for climate justice, Pakistan requires immediate support to mitigate climate disasters. Our house is on fire, and urgent measures are imperative to extinguish the flames.

The Perils of a Business-as-Usual Approach

If Pakistan continues on its current trajectory, the future looks grim. The nation faces severe droughts, melting glaciers, desertification, and scorched landscapes. The triple threat of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution exacerbates daily hardships for its citizens. The fight for survival is an ongoing battle.

The BAU model, which assumes that existing policies are sufficient to address climate challenges, is a dangerous path. It leaves Pakistan unprepared for future climate shocks, lacking essential resources to combat extreme weather and water crises. Policymakers acknowledge Pakistan’s vulnerability, yet systemic obstacles such as inadequate knowledge, skills, coordination, and access to global resources hinder effective action.

A Looming Climate Emergency

Global responses to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions remain sluggish. The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as per the Paris Agreement, appears increasingly difficult to achieve. If current trends persist, Pakistan could experience a temperature rise of 2.5–3°C by 2047, leading to prolonged heatwaves and acute water shortages.

Pakistan's glaciers, which supply a major portion of the country’s freshwater, are melting at alarming rates. This could result in a 60% reduction in water availability, severely impacting the Indus River system and accelerating desertification. Rising sea levels will further threaten fragile coastal and delta regions.

A screenshot of the list of the 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change in the long run. Source: Germanwatch (2020).

With a rapidly growing population, water demand is expected to increase by 40%. If left unaddressed, this could trigger one of Pakistan’s worst crises, leading to widespread instability, food shortages, and urban water stress. Water scarcity may also intensify regional conflicts over shared resources.

The Socioeconomic Fallout

Agricultural productivity could decline by up to 50%, jeopardizing food security. With 40% of Pakistan’s population already living below the poverty line, climate shocks could push an additional 21 million people into extreme poverty. Vulnerable groups, particularly women and children, will suffer the most. Currently, 40% of Pakistani children under five face malnutrition, and climate-induced hardships will further erode their chances of a better future.

Rural-to-urban migration will surge as people seek employment in cities already grappling with crumbling infrastructure, poor sanitation, and overburdened municipal services. Unchecked urban expansion could lead to health crises, exacerbated by pollution and waste mismanagement. Without sustainable planning, Pakistan’s youth—expected to make up 50-60% of the population by 2047—may be driven toward crime, radicalization, or unrest due to dwindling opportunities.

A Devastating Economic Toll

The economic implications of climate inaction are staggering. Without intervention, climate-related losses could reach $20 billion annually. By 2050, cumulative damages could soar to $13 trillion. The 2022 floods alone slashed Pakistan’s GDP by 8%, highlighting the economic fragility posed by environmental disasters. Prolonged exposure to climate risks could slash annual economic output by 18%.

Air pollution, a silent but deadly crisis, already erodes 4% of GDP annually, straining healthcare systems and productivity. The combined impact of climate disasters and mounting debt burdens will disproportionately affect the poorest, deepening socioeconomic inequality and stifling national progress.

Urgent Climate Action: The Path Forward

To effectively combat climate change, Pakistan must adopt a multi-faceted approach:

1.    Declare a National Climate Emergency: This is not an alarmist move but a necessary step to mobilize a coordinated response across all sectors.

2.    Implement Climate-Resilient Policies: Every governmental department must integrate climate considerations into budgeting and planning.

3.    Enhance Water and Agricultural Management: Without sustainable water conservation and agricultural reforms, food and water security will remain under threat.

4.    Expand Renewable Energy Investments: Transitioning towards clean energy solutions will reduce dependency on fossil fuels and cut emissions.

5.    Promote Sustainable Urban Development: Cities must be equipped with climate-resilient infrastructure, efficient waste management, and sustainable transport solutions.

6.    Foster International Collaboration: Access to climate financing, technology transfers, and global cooperation is essential for Pakistan’s adaptation efforts.

A Call to Collective Responsibility

Pakistan stands at a pivotal crossroads. The country’s future depends on decisive action taken today. A mere continuation of past policies will lead to irreversible damage, exacerbating poverty, instability, and economic downturns. Climate change is not a distant threat—it is a present reality demanding immediate, coordinated, and sustained efforts.

Ignoring climate risks is no longer an option. If Pakistan embraces bold, innovative strategies, it can safeguard its people, economy, and environment. The window for action is closing fast, but hope remains—if we act now.

References:

1.    National Climate Change Policy of Pakistan: This policy document provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the challenges posed by climate change in Pakistan, emphasizing adaptation and mitigation strategies across various sectors. mocc.gov.pk

2.    World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal: The portal offers detailed insights into Pakistan's vulnerability to climate-induced disasters, highlighting the nation's exposure to flooding, droughts, and other extreme weather events. climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org

3.    Global Warming in Pakistan and Its Impact on Public Health: This study discusses the severe health implications of climate change in Pakistan, noting that recent monsoon seasons have led to widespread, deadly flooding, affecting 15% of the total population. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

4.    Pakistan's National Adaptation Plan (NAP): The NAP outlines the country's strategic approach to building resilience against climate impacts, detailing sector-specific vulnerabilities and corresponding adaptive measures. unfccc.int

5.    Climate Change Knowledge Portal - Pakistan Country Profile: This profile provides an overview of Pakistan's climate risks, including projections of temperature increases and the associated socio-economic impacts. climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org

6.    Pakistan Floods and Climate Change: An analysis by the British Red Cross detailing the unprecedented monsoon rains in 2022, which saw record highs and led to devastating floods across the country. redcross.org.uk

7.    Pakistan's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): As part of its commitment under the Paris Agreement, Pakistan has outlined its targets and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing climate resilience. mocc.gov.pk

8.    Climate Change in Pakistan: A comprehensive overview of the country's climate challenges, policies, and mitigation efforts, highlighting the critical need for integrated action. en.wikipedia.org

These sources collectively provide a robust foundation for understanding the pressing climate issues facing Pakistan and underscore the urgency for comprehensive and immediate action.