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Sunday, February 23, 2025

F-35 deal: How much could it cost India?

Is India: At a policy crossroads?

Explore the hidden costs, technical flaws, and geopolitical risks behind India’s controversial F-35 fighter jet deal with the U.S. "A critical analysis".




A High-Stakes Geopolitical Gamble

India’s proposed acquisition of the F-35 Lightning II has ignited fierce debate. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi touts the deal as a leap toward modernising India’s air power, critics warn of crippling costs, operational vulnerabilities, and strategic entanglements. This analysis dissects the hidden risks of the F-35 deal, its impact on India’s military autonomy, and why regional rivals like China and Pakistan remain unfazed.




The F-35: Technological Marvel or Overpriced Liability?

Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation stealth fighter boasts cutting-edge features:

  • Stealth Capabilities: Radar-evading coatings reduce detection range to 70 km (vs. 150 km for conventional jets).
  • Advanced Systems: Electro-Optical Targeting (EOTS) and Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar for precision strikes.
  • Networked Warfare: Real-time data sharing with allied forces.

Three Variants:

1.    F-35A ($82.5M/unit): Conventional takeoff (U.S. Air Force).

2.    F-35B: Vertical landing (U.S. Marines, UK).

3.    F-35C: Carrier-based (U.S. Navy).

But Flaws Lurk Beneath the Gloss:

  • 2024 Pentagon report flagged software glitches, false alerts, and combat simulation failures.
  • Hourly operational costs: ₹31 lakh ($40,000), excluding specialized maintenance.

The Hidden Costs: Beyond the Price Tag

1.    Budget Drain: A single squadron (18–24 jets) could consume 30–40% of India’s defense modernization budget.

2.    Logistical Chaos: India’s airforce already manages seven aircraft types. Adding an eighth (F-35) would strain training, maintenance, and spare parts.

3.    Strategic Strings Attached:

o   The U.S. retains access to flight data, compromising operational secrecy.

o   Risk of spare parts embargoes if India acts against U.S. interests (e.g., deploying jets near China).



Rahul Bedi, Defense Analyst:

“The F-35 isn’t just expensive—it’s diplomatically restrictive. India’s autonomy could be collateral damage.”


Operational Realities: Does India Need Stealth Jets?

  • Fleet Crisis: India operates 31 squadrons (vs. required 45), with aging MiG-21s (“Flying Coffins”) dominating the fleet.
  • Rafale vs. F-35: France’s Rafale offers lower lifecycle costs, no usage restrictions, and compatibility with existing infrastructure.
  • Domestic Failures: Delays in the Tejas MK-2 program highlight India’s struggle to indigenize defense tech.

Probeen Sawhney, Defense Strategist:

“The IAF needs 200–250 fighters, not 20 gold-plated jets. The F-35 solves a problem India doesn’t have.”


Geopolitical Risks: Strategic Autonomy Under Threat

1.    Souring Russia Ties: The deal pressures India to abandon cost-effective Russian systems (e.g., S-400 missiles), risking Moscow’s ire.

2.    U.S. Leverage: The F-35 could be used to sway India’s stance on China, dragging New Delhi into U.S.-Beijing tensions.

3.    Surveillance Concerns: Flight data shared with the U.S. undermines mission confidentiality.


Regional Rivals: Why China and Pakistan Aren’t Worried

  • Stealth ≠ Invisibility: Chinese J-20s and Russian Su-57s deploy advanced radars that can track F-35s.
  • China’s Sixth-Gen Edge: Beijing tests prototypes outpacing the F-35, while Pakistan eyes J-20 acquisitions.
  • Costly Catch-Up: India’s $130B modernization budget risks being diverted to a jet that offers fleeting superiority.

Global Fifth-Gen Fighters: How the F-35 Stacks Up

Metric

F-35 (USA)

Su-57 (Russia)

J-20 (China)

Unit Cost

$80M

$50M

$110M (est.)

Top Speed

Mach 1.6

Mach 2.0

Mach 2.2

Combat Radius

1,200 km

1,500 km

2,000 km

Stealth

High

Moderate

Moderate

Key Strength

Sensors

Maneuverability

Range


Flashy Hardware vs. Strategic Prudence

The F-35 tempts with unmatched tech but demands India sacrifice fiscal discipline and sovereignty. With China advancing sixth-gen jets and Pakistan modernizing, New Delhi faces a stark choice: prioritize fleet numbers over niche stealth or risk becoming a pawn in U.S. geopolitics. As Henry Kissinger cautioned, “America’s enmity is dangerous, but its friendship can be lethal.”


References

1.    Pentagon Report on F-35 Flaws (2024).

2.    U.S. GAO Analysis of F-35 Program Costs.

3.    Statements by Analysts Rahul Bedi & Probeen Sawhney.

4.    The Hindu: “U.S. Pressure on India for F-35 Deal.”

5.    Indian Air Force Modernization Briefs (2023).

Hashtags: #F35Deal #IndiaUSDefense #StealthJets #GeopoliticalRisks #IAFModernization


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