New Asian Order: China or India?

There’s no denying that Modi's Ajit Doval Doctrine has largely failed, with Pakistan’s opening of the Kartarpur Corridor adding to India's embarrassment. However, leaders who rise to power on the platform of nationalism often double down on that very nationalism when the situation worsens. India, seizing the opportunity of a weak government in Pakistan, swiftly revoked Kashmir's special legal status. Now, in a similar vein, India seeks to exploit the deteriorating China-U.S. relations for military, political, and economic gains. India believes it can emerge as the world's second-largest economy and simultaneously expand its influence in Asia, backed by Western support.

Currently, India is strengthening its military presence in the Galwan Valley.

China, on the other hand, has amicably resolved border disputes with almost all of its neighbours, even ceding contested territory to Afghanistan to settle differences. With Pakistan, China agreed on a 60-40 division of disputed lands, but it has failed to reach such an agreement with India. The border between the two nations, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), is a demarcation of where their respective armies held positions following past conflicts, not an official boundary. The LAC is inherently unstable, where skirmishes and land grabs are common due to its uncertain nature.

In contrast, the border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir is called the Line of Control (LOC), a disputed border that both countries officially recognise. Additionally, there is the Working Boundary between India and Pakistan, which, though also disputed, is observed by both nations until a resolution is reached.

India has recently completed a 255-kilometer-long road along the Shyok River, connecting it to the Karakoram Highway, signaling its strategic aspirations.

India intends to use its military base in the Galwan Valley as leverage against both China and Pakistan. This base could threaten Pakistan’s water resources and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Despite international financial institutions refusing to fund it, China has signed an agreement with Pakistan for the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam, deepening their partnership.

These international institutions backed off under Indian pressure. India sees this as an opportune moment for a triple win, but China’s capture of the Galwan Valley and crossing of the Shyok River derailed India's plans.

While Pakistan’s weak government tried to curry diplomatic favor by returning a captured Indian pilot in the hopes of winning a Nobel Peace Prize, China adopted a more assertive approach, embedding itself in Indian territory. Now, any future negotiations will be dictated on China’s terms. Imran Khan missed this crucial moment, and it’s widely acknowledged that under Nawaz Sharif’s leadership, Modi would not have dared to take such bold steps in Kashmir or Gilgit-Baltistan. Nawaz Sharif, despite playing the fool in front of Modi, was secretly advancing CPEC. By contrast, Imran Khan’s so-called honesty and integrity have done Pakistan a disservice; in politics, diplomacy, not idealism, is the currency.

The U.S. also needs a new adversary. With the fall of Germany, Russia, and al-Qaeda, China now appears to be the next target. Washington perceives China’s growing economic power as a threat to its status as the world’s sole superpower. Trump, eyeing the upcoming November elections, has already set the stage to play the “China card.” Japan and Australia, too, are keen to bolster India as a counterbalance to China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region. However, China seeks to expand its economic footprint globally without getting entangled in conflicts, at least for the next decade or two. While China prefers to avoid a new Cold War, it has not hesitated to take action when its borders are threatened—a hallmark of a resilient nation. The U.S. continues to exert economic and political pressure on China, from Hong Kong and Taiwan to the Indian border.

After the U.S., China and India have the largest defense budgets in the world, but the gap between the U.S. and China’s military capabilities is mirrored by the gap between China and India.

Despite its vast military budget, China still lags behind the U.S. and Russia in terms of military technology, which is why it relies heavily on Russia for advanced equipment. Although the U.S. sees Russia as its greatest military threat, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington has shifted its primary focus to China’s economic power. Both China and India procure weapons from Russia and maintain close ties with Moscow. India’s relationship with Russia dates back to the Cold War, and Russia has consistently supported India against Pakistan, playing a key role in India’s victory in the 1971 war. However, when it comes to China-India disputes, Russia has remained neutral, as it did during the 1960s.

On the global stage, Russia and China form one bloc, while the U.S., France, and the U.K. constitute another within the U.N. Security Council. It’s worth noting that the U.S. attempted as early as the 1950s to secure a permanent seat at the U.N. for India, instead of China, in a bid to shift the balance of power.

In recent years, India has struggled to meet modern military needs. Even its efforts to acquire S-400 air defense systems and advanced helicopters from Russia have been slow. The U.S., however, opposes such purchases, as it views the S-400 as a threat to its stealth technology-equipped F-35 fighter jets. Whenever Russia deploys this system, the U.S. limits its own military sales. India's dilemma lies in its desire to buy weapons from Russia while expecting economic cooperation from the U.S. and its allies. In the coming years, India will find itself attempting to balance these competing interests.

In February 2019, during an aerial skirmish between Pakistan and India, the Indian Air Force suffered a major setback when Pakistan shot down a MiG fighter and captured the pilot. As a result, India fast-tracked its acquisition of French-made Rafale jets, equipped with radar-evading stealth technology. The Rafale, already in service with the French, Egyptian, and Qatari air forces, boasts the longest combat range in the world at 1,800 kilometers, along with unmatched radar capabilities.

Pakistan, on the other hand, operates F-16s and JF-17 Thunder jets, which, while half a generation older than the Rafale, surpass it in speed and flight range. In a direct confrontation, the skill of the pilots will play a decisive role.

Despite being humbled by China, India is unlikely to abandon its aggressive stance. To restore its standing, it may turn to easier targets like Nepal or Pakistan.

Nepal, a country of 28 million people nestled between China’s towering snow-covered peaks to the north and India to the south, imports 93% of its goods from India.

Recently, Nepal issued a new map claiming territories currently under Indian control, sparking tensions. The Nepali Parliament passed a unanimous resolution asserting its ownership of these regions, declaring it won’t back down an inch. Historically, Nepal has been politically and religiously influenced by India, but now, with improving relations with China—including the construction of a road to Nepal and plans for a $5.5 billion railway project under the Belt and Road Initiative—Nepal is starting to resist Indian pressure. Nonetheless, its Prime Minister humorously invokes religion in his diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with India.

Pakistan must stop broadcasting its economic weaknesses to the world and instead position itself as a strong nation capable of standing up to India. Neither the OIC nor the international community will act unless Pakistan takes decisive steps. Pakistan’s government needs to leave Twitter behind and engage in the real world. India has occupied Kashmir, while Pakistan has remained on the defensive. If, after 70 years of investment in Kashmir, Pakistan still finds itself on the defensive, perhaps it's time to let the Kashmiris lead their own political struggle for freedom. The tragedy of South Asia’s Muslims has always been their reliance on foreign powers—be it Afghanistan, Iran, or the Arabs—to confront the Hindus. When the moment of decision finally came, large parts of Muslim-majority regions selfishly separated from India, leaving the remaining Muslims as outsiders in their own homeland.

If China-India tensions continue to escalate, it could very well lead to a third world war, drawing in the entire globe.