What does the future hold for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)?
After the failure of the Mission D Chowk on November 24, PTI appears to be in trouble. Externally, there is criticism, but internally, the party is facing severe disagreements. Although from the very first day, the party has not been an ideal organisation.
Since Imran Khan went to jail, the party has been lacking central leadership. Imran Khan does not appoint a strong leader for the party’s leadership, fearing that the party might be hijacked; however, this parallel loss is affecting the party organisation and operations.
Barrister Gohar is the chairman in name, but in practice, Ali Amin Gandapur seemed to lead the protest politics. However, his sudden absence during the October protest made his leadership questionable, especially in the eyes of the workers.
Bushra Bibi's Political Gamble
In this context, Bushra Bibi makes her entry into protest politics. Bushra Bibi, who holds no official position in the party and has no practical experience in this field, announced Mission D Chowk. It should be noted that this was her very first rally, and she set a target that even seasoned leaders would think twice before attempting.
Furthermore, the senior leadership of the party was certainly not in agreement with the decision to go to D-Chowk. Nevertheless, Bushra Bibi made the Do or Die decision to go solo. She entered Islamabad and left political analysts baffled. This worried the PMLN and their allies, who began to fear that there might be a deal behind it.
However, then on the night of November 26, something happened that should not have happened in a democratic country. First, there were reports of the martyrdom of security personnel during the protest rally, and then there were reports of a crackdown on political workers in the dark of night. Both sides are claiming their own factual figures. But whatever happened, the loss on both sides actually costs Pakistan and human lives.
Missed Opportunities and Strategic Missteps
Now, two scenarios come to mind that could have averted this tragedy.
Firstly, if the High Court had imposed restrictions on the D-Chowk protest, PTI should have complied and recorded the protest in Sangjani.
Secondly, once they had entered Islamabad, which was indeed a significant achievement amidst such severe blockades, Bushra Bibi should have cashed in on that success and announced the end of the protest considering the safety of her workers in a potential fatal clash. However, due to her inexperience, Bushra Bibi failed to understand the situation and clashed with the state. She taken an oath from the activists to sit at D-Chowk until Khan's release, but when crackdown started, she was first who ran from Mission D Chowk. The emotional and charged workers tried to stop her, but she left them astonished & alone and ran away. It is so embarrassing for party and political workers. It seems that Bushra Bibi has carried out a suicide attack on her party, and has put a stop to PTI movements for the time being. PTI workers were already unhappy with the party leadership, now after this incident their trust may have been lost. Now it may not be possible to re-mobilize them, until Imran Khan himself leads them.
Expert Opinions on PTI's Path Forward
Political circles in Pakistan are trying to find an answer to the question of what strategy Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf will adopt for the release of its leader Imran Khan after the end of protests in Islamabad.
One perception is that there is no good news for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the future. The establishment is not with it, the media is blacking out its news, while the parliament and its legislation are also not in favor of the party. Similarly, social media is also under restrictions.
Alongside, there are disagreements within the party, and new cases are being filed. There is also no possibility of dialogue with political parties, so currently, there does not seem to be any hope for success.
On the other hand, the opinion is that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is still continuing its struggle despite "intense repression and injustices," and a large number of the public supports it, with voices being raised for it internationally. Many prominent lawyers are with this party, and Imran Khan is also receiving bail from the courts.
The alleged perpetrators of May 9 have not yet been punished. Considering the difficulties the establishment is facing in various regions including Balochistan and KP, it will not be easy for them to escalate tensions with PTI and fight on all fronts. Therefore, it is also possible that they may be forced to open the doors for reconciliation with PTI.
Is Bush qualified to lead?
Analyst Hamid Mir says that Bushra Bibi had proved that she could carry forward the party affairs bravely by entering Islamabad's D-Chowk against the opinion of the entire party leadership, but she went back from D-Chowk and axed herself to her feet.
Analyst Imtiaz Alam says that Bushra Bibi's role does not form in the party, "Taking party leaders hostage by her, was not liked in the party.
Analyst Dr Hasan Askari says that the PTI always used to taunt other parties with nepotism and dynastic politics, "If the PTI is also taken over by Bibi, then what will be the difference between it and other parties? At present, the party is in trouble and its problems are too many.
Was November 26 a victory for the state and a defeat for the political party?
First of all, in a democratic country, this 26th night operation should not be happened against public. This cannot be the behavior of a democratic government. Any Govt official can say that it established the writ of the government and strengthened the stability of the country. But, on the other hand, you also established the tradition that the opposition will be controlled like this. Instead of solving the problems through dialogue. Hatred will be increased by suppressing them with force.
The government should not be happy to consider this as its success, nor should it promote the trend of using force against the political party by thinking that they have now dominated the opponents. It's too much now. It would be difficult to underestimate the distrust people have against state policies and the state itself. In view of the strenuous efforts made by the state to stop the protests, it can be asked whether it would be right to consider it a success of the state after paying such a heavy price.
Has the political crisis been averted?
PTI’s Current Reality
On the other hand, PTI should also have to learn from this. They should acknowledge that "Revolutions" are not as easy. Instead of successive failed protest attempts, they should focus on organising their party and developing an effective strategy. They should also be continued a serious dialogue process, along with the protests, to prove a mature political approach. Otherwise, they will never successful and they will not only harm themselves but also the country. They should have to wage a political struggle within the framework of the law and the state. If there is a state, there will be politics.
Is This Time, Call for Reconciliation
The state also has to become a mother, understand its responsible role. Meanwhile the state is facing terrorist acts on different fronts, the state should take all the stakeholders into confidence and establish central unity. But such acts like 26th will only increase hatred and inter-provincial distrust.
Finally, the question "When will the state become like a mother?
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